Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>During 1H24 CGF expects to sell its bank for ~AUD36m which could include a AUD11m gain and allow to free-up bank capital of around AUD40-50m.</li>
<li>Return on capital is now at the highest it has been since FY10 at 6.2% with a substantial 160bps increase in normalized ROE in 2H23 YoY to 13.1%</li>
<li>85% market share of annuity FUM from 50% about 10 years ago, operating in system with strong forced savings in superannution funds now at AUD3.5tr up 91% over 10 yrs.</li>
</ul>


During 1H24 CGF expects to sell its bank for ~AUD36m which could include a AUD11m gain and allow to free-up bank capital of around AUD40-50m.
Return on capital is now at the highest it has been since FY10 at 6.2% with a substantial 160bps increase in normalized ROE in 2H23 YoY to 13.1%
85% market share of annuity FUM from 50% about 10 years ago, operating in system with strong forced savings in superannution funds now at AUD3.5tr up 91% over 10 yrs.


Challenger (CGF AU) - Bank Sale 1H24 | ROC Highest in 23 Yrs | 85% Market Share Annuity FUM

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> closed down last week (CC=-1), this week is rising again, we analyze the new, reset resistance levels to see how far it can go.</li>
<li>Our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/eqd-sp-asx200-index-will-it-break-out-of-its-range" target="_blank" rel="noopener">previous, recent insight</a> discussed the fact that the index has been locked in a range for 2 years, an uptrend may be unfolding but it must breach 7600.</li>
<li>The current trend pattern is bearish, the index won't rise more than 2-3 weeks, and it would probably go not very far: 7300-7400 should be the limit</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) closed down last week (CC=-1), this week is rising again, we analyze the new, reset resistance levels to see how far it can go.
Our previous, recent insight discussed the fact that the index has been locked in a range for 2 years, an uptrend may be unfolding but it must breach 7600.
The current trend pattern is bearish, the index won't rise more than 2-3 weeks, and it would probably go not very far: 7300-7400 should be the limit


EQD | S&P/ASX200 Index Looking Bearish: Resistance Levels Reset

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Changes to the S&amp;P/ASX indices, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-rare-earth-strategic-me" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32320:1" rel="noopener">REMX US</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-junior-gold-miners-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32845:1" rel="noopener">GDXJ US</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-australian-property-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30998:1" rel="noopener">MVA AU</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-australian-equal-weight-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24297:1" rel="noopener">MVW AU</a> and other indices will be implemented at the close on Friday.</li>
<li>There is over +/-A$5m to trade or +/-3x ADV to trade on nearly 100 stocks and will be a huge volume day for the stocks at the close.</li>
<li>Use the volume on the buy and sell side to increase/reduce positions especially on the deletes where there will be liquidity to cover shorts on stocks that have dropped significantly.</li>
</ul>


Changes to the S&amp;P/ASX indices, REMX US, GDXJ US, MVA AU, MVW AU and other indices will be implemented at the close on Friday.
There is over +/-A$5m to trade or +/-3x ADV to trade on nearly 100 stocks and will be a huge volume day for the stocks at the close.
Use the volume on the buy and sell side to increase/reduce positions especially on the deletes where there will be liquidity to cover shorts on stocks that have dropped significantly.


Australia: S&P/ASX, REMX, GDXJ, MVA, MVW & Other Index Flows on Friday

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/treasury-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14625:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Current (PAC AU)</a> has disclosed a non-binding indicative proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/regal-partners-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29119:1" rel="noopener">Regal Partners (RPL AU)</a> at A$7.50 cash per share and 2.2 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gqg-partners-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34569:1" rel="noopener">GQG Partners (GQG AU)</a> shares per PAC share.</li>
<li>The implied offer price of A$11.12 per share based on GQG's last close price is a juicy 42.6% premium to the undisturbed price of A$7.80 per share (26 July).</li>
<li>The offer is attractive compared to historical ranges and peer multiples. Expect the Board to grant due diligence access to facilitate a binding proposal.</li>
</ul>



Pacific Current (PAC AU) has disclosed a non-binding indicative proposal from Regal Partners (RPL AU) at A$7.50 cash per share and 2.2 GQG Partners (GQG AU) shares per PAC share.
The implied offer price of A$11.12 per share based on GQG's last close price is a juicy 42.6% premium to the undisturbed price of A$7.80 per share (26 July).
The offer is attractive compared to historical ranges and peer multiples. Expect the Board to grant due diligence access to facilitate a binding proposal.


Pacific Current Group (PAC AU): Regal Partners’ Attractive Indicative Offer

<ul>
<li>There are unlikely to be any inclusions to the index in June while there are three stocks that are close to the deletion threshold.</li>
<li>Even if there are no constituent changes, there will be capping changes that will result in one-way turnover of over 4% and a one-way trade of A$78m.</li>
<li>Short interest on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:678:1" rel="noopener">AMP Ltd (AMP AU)</a> has been increasing as the stock has dropped and a further decline in the stock could lead to deletion.</li>
</ul>


There are unlikely to be any inclusions to the index in June while there are three stocks that are close to the deletion threshold.
Even if there are no constituent changes, there will be capping changes that will result in one-way turnover of over 4% and a one-way trade of A$78m.
Short interest on AMP Ltd (AMP AU) has been increasing as the stock has dropped and a further decline in the stock could lead to deletion.


MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: Potential Deletes & Capping Changes

Australia

Challenger Limited is an investment management firm  The Company offers annuities and other retirement income products as well as manages assets for domestic and international clients.

Price Gauge
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Challenger Ltd (CGF AU)

EQD | S&P/ASX200 Index Looking Bearish: Resistance Levels Reset

The current MRM reading for the current SP/ASX 200 trend pattern is bearish, suggesting a 2-3 weeks rally maximum, with limited gains (2% to 3%...

Nico Rosti

Australia: S&P/ASX, REMX, GDXJ, MVA, MVW & Other Index Flows on Friday

There are a bunch of rebalances that will be implemented in Australia on Friday. Nearly 100 stocks will have over A$5m or more than 3x ADV to...

Brian Freitas

Pacific Current Group (PAC AU): Regal Partners’ Attractive Indicative Offer

The offer is attractive compared to historical ranges and peer multiples. Expect the Board to grant due diligence access to facilitate a binding...

Arun George

MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: Potential Deletes & Capping Changes

There could be 3 deletions for the MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index in June. Capping changes could result in one-way turnover of 4.1% and a one...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Challenger (CGF AU) - Bank Sale 1H24 | ROC Highest in 23 Yrs | 85% Market Share Annuity FUM

Bank divestment in 1H24 can see gains, capital release, and better focus on life and funds. Improving returns are substantial, into a growing...

Daniel Tabbush

EQD | S&P/ASX200 Index Looking Bearish: Resistance Levels Reset

​The current MRM reading for the current SP/ASX 200 trend pattern is bearish, suggesting a 2-3 weeks rally maximum, with limited gains (2% to 3%...

Nico Rosti

Australia: S&P/ASX, REMX, GDXJ, MVA, MVW & Other Index Flows on Friday

There are a bunch of rebalances that will be implemented in Australia on Friday. Nearly 100 stocks will have over A$5m or more than 3x ADV to...

Brian Freitas

Pacific Current Group (PAC AU): Regal Partners’ Attractive Indicative Offer

The offer is attractive compared to historical ranges and peer multiples. Expect the Board to grant due diligence access to facilitate a binding...

Arun George

MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: Potential Deletes & Capping Changes

There could be 3 deletions for the MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index in June. Capping changes could result in one-way turnover of 4.1% and a one...

Brian Freitas

The current MRM reading for the current SP/ASX 200 trend pattern is bearish, suggesting a 2-3 weeks rally maximum, with limited gains (2% to 3%...