Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Australia Securities &amp; Investment Commission produces high-frequency data on insolvencies, which is valuable data for analyzing banks. There is pronounced deterioration in at least 3 sectors.</li>
<li>In construction, total appointments rose to 829 YTD to 10 Sept 2023 from 588 a year ago and from 250 in the preceding comparable period. </li>
<li>Hotel &amp; food services and retail trade are also seeing high growth of insolvencies. Australia's banks will likely face more defaults, NPLs and credit costs. </li>
</ul>


Australia Securities &amp; Investment Commission produces high-frequency data on insolvencies, which is valuable data for analyzing banks. There is pronounced deterioration in at least 3 sectors.
In construction, total appointments rose to 829 YTD to 10 Sept 2023 from 588 a year ago and from 250 in the preceding comparable period. 
Hotel &amp; food services and retail trade are also seeing high growth of insolvencies. Australia's banks will likely face more defaults, NPLs and credit costs. 


Australia - New Insolvencies Data: Construction Appointments at 829 Vs 588 YoY | Credit Risk Worsens

<ul>
<li>Newly released data in Australia suggests worsening earnings for banks in the coming 1-2 quarters at least, from both less credit volume and higher credit costs.</li>
<li>Retail sales figures are just out with the YoY change continuing to grind lower, now at only 1.45% with implications for credit card transactions and consumer underlying strength.</li>
<li>General Business Situation survey for next 6 months is now lower than its trough in year 2020. New median house price data shows negative growth for 3 consecutive quarters.</li>
</ul>


Newly released data in Australia suggests worsening earnings for banks in the coming 1-2 quarters at least, from both less credit volume and higher credit costs.
Retail sales figures are just out with the YoY change continuing to grind lower, now at only 1.45% with implications for credit card transactions and consumer underlying strength.
General Business Situation survey for next 6 months is now lower than its trough in year 2020. New median house price data shows negative growth for 3 consecutive quarters.


Australia Banks - New Data Suggests Weaker Profit, Primarily from Loan Volume & Credit Costs

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The a2 Milk Company (ATM) will report its FY26 result on Monday, 17 August 2026.</li>
<li>ATM noted a ‘large proportion’ of its China-label customers were forced to switch brands due to inadequate supply in 4Q26.</li>
<li>We look for an update on ATM’s Pokeno facility, where we expect utilisation to ramp up significantly in FY27.</li>
</ul>


The a2 Milk Company (ATM) will report its FY26 result on Monday, 17 August 2026.
ATM noted a ‘large proportion’ of its China-label customers were forced to switch brands due to inadequate supply in 4Q26.
We look for an update on ATM’s Pokeno facility, where we expect utilisation to ramp up significantly in FY27.


The a2 Milk Company FY26 Preview—Supply Restored

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a> has received a further revised non-binding indicative proposal from EQT at A$22.50 per share, a 1.9% premium to the previously rejected offer of A$22.07 per share. </li>
<li>The Board will find it increasingly challenging to dismiss EQT, particularly as peers have materially de-rated since EQT’s first offer (1 July) and the 45.2% premium to the undisturbed price. </li>
<li>While the revised offer implies a discount to peer multiples, it is reasonable compared to historical trading ranges. The Board will be under pressure to grant due diligence. </li>
</ul>



Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU) has received a further revised non-binding indicative proposal from EQT at A$22.50 per share, a 1.9% premium to the previously rejected offer of A$22.07 per share. 
The Board will find it increasingly challenging to dismiss EQT, particularly as peers have materially de-rated since EQT’s first offer (1 July) and the 45.2% premium to the undisturbed price. 
While the revised offer implies a discount to peer multiples, it is reasonable compared to historical trading ranges. The Board will be under pressure to grant due diligence. 


Perpetual (PPT AU): EQT’s Further Revised NBIO Amps the Pressure on the Board

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a> has received a revised non-binding indicative proposal from EQT at A$22.07 per share, a 2.0% premium to the previously rejected offer of A$21.64 per share. </li>
<li>While the revised offer remains below the Board’s rumoured floor price of A$25.00, it is reasonable compared to historical ranges and is a 42.4% premium to the undisturbed price. </li>
<li>Given the low premium to the earlier rejected offer, the Board is highly likely to reject the revised offer. Nevertheless, the Board will be under pressure to engage.  </li>
</ul>



Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU) has received a revised non-binding indicative proposal from EQT at A$22.07 per share, a 2.0% premium to the previously rejected offer of A$21.64 per share. 
While the revised offer remains below the Board’s rumoured floor price of A$25.00, it is reasonable compared to historical ranges and is a 42.4% premium to the undisturbed price. 
Given the low premium to the earlier rejected offer, the Board is highly likely to reject the revised offer. Nevertheless, the Board will be under pressure to engage.  


Perpetual (PPT AU): EQT Returns with a Revised NBIO at A$22.07

Australia

Challenger Limited is an investment management firm  The Company offers annuities and other retirement income products as well as manages assets for domestic and international clients.

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Challenger Ltd (CGF AU)

Australia - New Insolvencies Data: Construction Appointments at 829 Vs 588 YoY | Credit Risk Worsens

New insolvencies data is weakest in construction sector, but also there is major deterioration in accommodations, food, retail trade. The HFD...

Daniel Tabbush

Australia Banks - New Data Suggests Weaker Profit, Primarily from Loan Volume & Credit Costs

New data is of concern for bank profit. Housing prices, business index, retail sales, suggest a worsening backdrop. Banks' credit costs in the most...

Daniel Tabbush

The a2 Milk Company FY26 Preview—Supply Restored

The a2 Milk Company (ATM) will report its FY26 result on Monday, 17 August 2026. ATM noted a ‘large proportion’ of its China-label customers were...

Forsyth Barr

Perpetual (PPT AU): EQT’s Further Revised NBIO Amps the Pressure on the Board

The Board will find it increasingly challenging to dismiss EQT, particularly as peers have materially de-rated since EQT’s first offer (1 July) and...

Arun George

Perpetual (PPT AU): EQT Returns with a Revised NBIO at A$22.07

Given the low premium to the earlier rejected offer, the Board is highly likely to reject the revised offer. Nevertheless, the Board will be under...

Arun George

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