IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a> rejected a conditional, non-binding indicative proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/regal-partners-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29119:1" rel="noopener">Regal Partners (RPL AU)</a>/BPEA EQT at A$30.00 per share, an 11.5% premium to the undisturbed price. </li>
<li>Regal/BPEA EQT’s aim is to present shareholders with a choice - pay a premium to merge with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group (PDL AU)</a> or receive a lower risk premium from Regal/BPEA EQT. </li>
<li>The Perpetual/Pendal deal is increasingly on shaky grounds. The skinny premium suggests that Regal/BPEA EQT have headroom to bump the offer to get the Board to engage. </li>
</ul>



Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU) rejected a conditional, non-binding indicative proposal from Regal Partners (RPL AU)/BPEA EQT at A$30.00 per share, an 11.5% premium to the undisturbed price. 
Regal/BPEA EQT’s aim is to present shareholders with a choice - pay a premium to merge with Pendal Group (PDL AU) or receive a lower risk premium from Regal/BPEA EQT. 
The Perpetual/Pendal deal is increasingly on shaky grounds. The skinny premium suggests that Regal/BPEA EQT have headroom to bump the offer to get the Board to engage. 


Perpetual Turns from Predator to Prey with Regal/BPEA EQT’s Offer

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Oct 7th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD16.9bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in CBA, BHP, Westpac, Wesfarmers, CSL, South32, Fortescue, IGO, OZ Minerals, Washington  H. SO. </li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Oct 7th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD16.9bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in CBA, BHP, Westpac, Wesfarmers, CSL, South32, Fortescue, IGO, OZ Minerals, Washington  H. SO. 


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 7th): CBA, BHP, Westpac, Wesfarmers, CSL

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group (PDL AU)</a> entered a scheme implementation deed with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a>. The revised offer - scrip (1 Perpetual share for every 7.5 Pendal share) and cash (A$1.976).</li>
<li>The revised offer throws in an 18.3% higher cash component as a sweetener. The offer implies a healthy acquisition multiple compared to peers.</li>
<li>The offer is subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals. At the last close price, the gross spread to the current offer value of A$5.635 per share is 13.7%.</li>
</ul>



Pendal Group (PDL AU) entered a scheme implementation deed with Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU). The revised offer - scrip (1 Perpetual share for every 7.5 Pendal share) and cash (A$1.976).
The revised offer throws in an 18.3% higher cash component as a sweetener. The offer implies a healthy acquisition multiple compared to peers.
The offer is subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals. At the last close price, the gross spread to the current offer value of A$5.635 per share is 13.7%.


Pendal Gets a Binding Offer from Perpetual

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a> confirmed today that it is currently in “<em>high-level, preliminary, confidential discussions with Pendal in relation to a potential acquisition.</em>”</li>
<li>Since rejecting Perpetual’s offer, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group (PDL AU)</a>’s shares have underperformed most of its peers largely due to poor FUM performance. </li>
<li>Despite today’s pop, Pendal trades at a discount to historical and peer multiples. Perpetual’s renewed interest points to its underlying value. </li>
</ul>



Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU) confirmed today that it is currently in “high-level, preliminary, confidential discussions with Pendal in relation to a potential acquisition.”
Since rejecting Perpetual’s offer, Pendal Group (PDL AU)’s shares have underperformed most of its peers largely due to poor FUM performance. 
Despite today’s pop, Pendal trades at a discount to historical and peer multiples. Perpetual’s renewed interest points to its underlying value. 


<ul>
<li>BGH announced an unconditional off-market takeover offer at A$8.00 cash per share along with intention for on-market purchases equal to, below, or higher than the offer price.</li>
<li>CapVest’s scheme transaction while superior has virtually no chance of getting up. CapVest’s off-market transaction is less appealing due to the uncertain outcome of the ATO ruling.</li>
<li>The last close price of A$8.15 is higher than both BGH and CapVest’s off-market offers which suggest both would need to raise their bid.  </li>
</ul>


BGH announced an unconditional off-market takeover offer at A$8.00 cash per share along with intention for on-market purchases equal to, below, or higher than the offer price.
CapVest’s scheme transaction while superior has virtually no chance of getting up. CapVest’s off-market transaction is less appealing due to the uncertain outcome of the ATO ruling.
The last close price of A$8.15 is higher than both BGH and CapVest’s off-market offers which suggest both would need to raise their bid.  


BGH Returns with an A$8.00 Off-Market Takeover Bid for Virtus

Australia

Challenger Limited is an investment management firm  The Company offers annuities and other retirement income products as well as manages assets for domestic and international clients.

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Challenger Ltd (CGF AU)

Perpetual Turns from Predator to Prey with Regal/BPEA EQT’s Offer

The Perpetual/Pendal deal is increasingly on shaky grounds. The skinny premium suggests that Regal/BPEA EQT have headroom to bump the offer to get...

Arun George

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 7th): CBA, BHP, Westpac, Wesfarmers, CSL

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in CBA, BHP, Westpac, Wesfarmers, CSL, South32,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Pendal Gets a Binding Offer from Perpetual

The offer implies a healthy acquisition multiple. Timing of regulatory approvals a key risk. At the last close price, the gross spread to the...

Arun George

Perpetual Mulls Another Bid for Pendal

Despite today’s pop, Pendal trades at a discount to historical and peer multiples. Perpetual’s renewed interest points to its underlying value.

Arun George

BGH Returns with an A$8.00 Off-Market Takeover Bid for Virtus

CapVest’s scheme offer while superior to BGH's off-market offer has virtually no chance of getting up. CapVest’s off-market offer is less appealing...

Arun George

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