Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We summarize our gleanings from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/champion-iron-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19734:1" rel="noopener">Champion Iron (CIA AU)</a> presentation, which captures the cost curve and other interesting details on the DRI market. </li>
<li>After declining below 100 USD/ton for 2 weeks, iron ore prices have slowly inched up towards 100 USD/ton, maintaining their level at the high end of the cost curve. </li>
<li>A 100 USD/ton level bodes well for the cash flows of the larger low-cost players like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vale-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23731:1" rel="noopener">Vale (VALE US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>


We summarize our gleanings from the Champion Iron (CIA AU) presentation, which captures the cost curve and other interesting details on the DRI market. 
After declining below 100 USD/ton for 2 weeks, iron ore prices have slowly inched up towards 100 USD/ton, maintaining their level at the high end of the cost curve. 
A 100 USD/ton level bodes well for the cash flows of the larger low-cost players like Vale (VALE US), Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU). 


Champion Iron Presentation, Iron Ore Cost Curve, and The Case For Green Steel

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Dec 6th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD22.9bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Apa, Champion Iron, Pro Medicus, BHP, National Australia Bank, Goodman.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Dec 6th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD22.9bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Apa, Champion Iron, Pro Medicus, BHP, National Australia Bank, Goodman.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 6th): Apa, Champion Iron, Pro Medicus, BHP, National Australia Bank

<ul>
<li>Iron ore prices were rangebound and maintained at over 100 USD/ton. In the last four years, they have been in a 95-130 USD/ton range. </li>
<li>China TSF (Total Social Financing) disappointed the street with 1.4 trillion RMB (-24% YoY), compared to the street estimates of &gt;1.5 trillion RMB.</li>
<li>We believe that more significant lending numbers would catalyze the iron ore price, but till then, iron prices will remain stagnant at the 100 USD/ton level. </li>
</ul>


Iron ore prices were rangebound and maintained at over 100 USD/ton. In the last four years, they have been in a 95-130 USD/ton range. 
China TSF (Total Social Financing) disappointed the street with 1.4 trillion RMB (-24% YoY), compared to the street estimates of &gt;1.5 trillion RMB.
We believe that more significant lending numbers would catalyze the iron ore price, but till then, iron prices will remain stagnant at the 100 USD/ton level. 


Iron Ore Tracker (25-Nov-2024): Waiting For Incremental Catalysts

<ul>
<li>The iron ore price has breached the 95 USD/ton level thrice in the last 4 years for very brief periods, after which it has bounced and remained range-bound.</li>
<li>The jury is still out on the quantum of China's stimulus and lackluster property data, but positive indicators like the PMI beating at 50.1 (vs. expectations of 49.9) were encouraging. </li>
<li>We provide updates for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kumba-iron-ore-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25094:1" rel="noopener">Kumba Iron Ore (KIO SJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/champion-iron-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19734:1" rel="noopener">Champion Iron (CIA AU)</a>, which just released their results. </li>
</ul>


The iron ore price has breached the 95 USD/ton level thrice in the last 4 years for very brief periods, after which it has bounced and remained range-bound.
The jury is still out on the quantum of China's stimulus and lackluster property data, but positive indicators like the PMI beating at 50.1 (vs. expectations of 49.9) were encouraging. 
We provide updates for Kumba Iron Ore (KIO SJ) and Champion Iron (CIA AU), which just released their results. 


Iron Ore Tracker (11-Nov-2024): The China Stalemate, But 100 USD/Ton Level Maintained

<ul>
<li>We analyze <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/champion-iron-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Champion Iron's (CIA AU)</a> Q2 2025 results. Forest fires, shutdowns, and logistical issues impacted the quarter, with revenues/profits down 9%/69% YoY.</li>
<li>The company reduced its stockpile of iron ore, but the cash pile still declined 100 mn CAD due to significant capex in the flotation plant and dividend payment. </li>
<li>The consensus (and we) will have to significantly reduce earnings as logistics continues to impact growth. </li>
</ul>


We analyze Champion Iron's (CIA AU) Q2 2025 results. Forest fires, shutdowns, and logistical issues impacted the quarter, with revenues/profits down 9%/69% YoY.
The company reduced its stockpile of iron ore, but the cash pile still declined 100 mn CAD due to significant capex in the flotation plant and dividend payment. 
The consensus (and we) will have to significantly reduce earnings as logistics continues to impact growth. 


Champion Iron (CIA AU) Q2 2025: Too Many Execution Glitches

Australia

champion Iron Limited is a exploration company. The Company acquires, explores and develops properties for iron ore deposits.

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Champion Iron (CIA AU)

Champion Iron Presentation, Iron Ore Cost Curve, and The Case For Green Steel

We summarize the recent investor presentation made by Champion Iron (CIA AU). There is strong support at the higher end of the cost surve as shown...

Sameer Taneja

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 6th): Apa, Champion Iron, Pro Medicus, BHP, National Australia Bank

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Apa, Champion Iron, Pro Medicus, BHP, National...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Iron Ore Tracker (25-Nov-2024): Waiting For Incremental Catalysts

We analyze the primary drivers of the iron ore price. This week, we cover the TSF (Total Social Financing) number, which has not shown any sign of...

Sameer Taneja

Iron Ore Tracker (11-Nov-2024): The China Stalemate, But 100 USD/Ton Level Maintained

Can the PMI beat of 50.1 (vs expectations 49.9) catalyse a recovery in the iron ore prices ? We eagerly look for the print on TSF next week which...

Sameer Taneja

Champion Iron (CIA AU) Q2 2025: Too Many Execution Glitches

We summarize the Q2 FY25 earnings for CIA AU (Champion Iron Ltd) and draw our gleanings from the conference call with management.

Sameer Taneja

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