Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Iron ore has remained rangebound between 95 and 130 USD/ton for three years, with cost-curve support kicking in on the higher cost curve at around 100 USD/ton.</li>
<li>Last week, quarterly operational updates released were for <a href="https://api.mziq.com/mzfilemanager/v2/d/53207d1c-63b4-48f1-96b7-19869fae19fe/7d5a19cc-4fa7-7ce9-a947-44dcefea9f27?origin=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Vale</a>, <a href="https://www.bhp.com/-/media/documents/media/reports-and-presentations/2024/240717_bhpoperationalreviewfortheyearended30june2024.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BHP</a>, <a href="https://www.angloamericankumba.com/~/media/Files/A/Anglo-American-Group-v5/Kumba/press-releases/2024/q2-2024-production-and-sales-report.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kumba</a>, and <a href="https://www.mtgibsoniron.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/MGX-June-Quarter-2024-Activities-Report-Final.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mount Gibson.</a> Except for BHP, all companies were disappointed due to provisional pricing impacts and mix changes.</li>
<li>Read our recent production preview <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fortescue-metals-group-fmg-au-high-dividend-yield-of-9-what-to-expect-from-q4-fy24" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:151567" rel="noopener">Fortescue Metals Group (FMG AU): High Dividend Yield of 9%, What to Expect From Q4 FY24,</a> to be declared on the 25th of July. </li>
</ul>


Iron ore has remained rangebound between 95 and 130 USD/ton for three years, with cost-curve support kicking in on the higher cost curve at around 100 USD/ton.
Last week, quarterly operational updates released were for Vale, BHP, Kumba, and Mount Gibson. Except for BHP, all companies were disappointed due to provisional pricing impacts and mix changes.
Read our recent production preview Fortescue Metals Group (FMG AU): High Dividend Yield of 9%, What to Expect From Q4 FY24, to be declared on the 25th of July. 


Iron Ore Tracker July 22nd, 2024: Doing The Dance Between 95-130 USD/Ton, Use Iron Condors

<ul>
<li>Iron ore has remained rangebound between 95 and 130 USD/ton for three years, with cost-curve support kicking in on the higher end of the cost curve at around 100 USD/ton. </li>
<li>Coking coal prices are expected to bounce due to the Anglo incident, and we believe the 65-62 spread will benefit, moving out of its mid-teens band. </li>
<li>We like iron condors (set up details in the insight) and high-grade ore producers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vale-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23731:1" rel="noopener">Vale (VALE US)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore has remained rangebound between 95 and 130 USD/ton for three years, with cost-curve support kicking in on the higher end of the cost curve at around 100 USD/ton. 
Coking coal prices are expected to bounce due to the Anglo incident, and we believe the 65-62 spread will benefit, moving out of its mid-teens band. 
We like iron condors (set up details in the insight) and high-grade ore producers Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU), Vale (VALE US).


Iron Ore Tracker July 4th, 2024: Prices Rangebound, Iron Condors Anyone?

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jun 14th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD19.3bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in BHP, Champion Iron, Woolworths.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jun 14th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD19.3bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in BHP, Champion Iron, Woolworths.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 14th): BHP, Champion Iron, Woolworths

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jun 7th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD19.8bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Xero, Fortescue, Wisetech Global, BHP, Woodside Energy.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jun 7th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD19.8bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Xero, Fortescue, Wisetech Global, BHP, Woodside Energy.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 7th): Xero, Fortescue, Wisetech Global, BHP, Woodside Energy

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/champion-iron-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19734:1" rel="noopener">Champion Iron (CIA AU)</a> reported an inline result for FY24, with revenue/profits up 9%/16% YoY.  Q4 revenue/profits were -28%YoY/-73%YoY due to lower pricing on 60% of volumes in transit. </li>
<li>The company-guided production volumes have reached the annualized 15 mnt mark, but logistics continued to be challenging in Q1. Easing is expected in August, and base case a 1.5-year destock.</li>
<li>The name carries some risks trading at 7x PE FY25 (March end), but it could be one to watch in case the 65-62 spread widens.</li>
</ul>



Champion Iron (CIA AU) reported an inline result for FY24, with revenue/profits up 9%/16% YoY.  Q4 revenue/profits were -28%YoY/-73%YoY due to lower pricing on 60% of volumes in transit. 
The company-guided production volumes have reached the annualized 15 mnt mark, but logistics continued to be challenging in Q1. Easing is expected in August, and base case a 1.5-year destock.
The name carries some risks trading at 7x PE FY25 (March end), but it could be one to watch in case the 65-62 spread widens.


Champion Iron (CIA AU): Q4 Results Update and Future Outlook

Australia

champion Iron Limited is a exploration company. The Company acquires, explores and develops properties for iron ore deposits.

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Champion Iron (CIA AU)

Iron Ore Tracker July 22nd, 2024: Doing The Dance Between 95-130 USD/Ton, Use Iron Condors

With iron ore continuing to remain rangebound between 95-130 USD/ton for the last 3 years (with minor overshoots), we summarize actionable ideas in...

Sameer Taneja

Iron Ore Tracker July 4th, 2024: Prices Rangebound, Iron Condors Anyone?

With the latest 10% bounce in iron ore prices and coking coal prices, we provide actionable ideas to play iron ore in equities/options etc.

Sameer Taneja

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 14th): BHP, Champion Iron, Woolworths

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in BHP, Champion Iron, Woolworths.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 7th): Xero, Fortescue, Wisetech Global, BHP, Woodside Energy

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Xero, Fortescue, Wisetech Global, BHP, Woodside...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Champion Iron (CIA AU): Q4 Results Update and Future Outlook

We summarize the Q4 FY24/FY24 financial results for Champion Iron (CIA AU) and the post-results conference call. The company is set to have a...

Sameer Taneja

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