Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The iron ore price has breached the 95 USD/ton level thrice in the last 4 years for very brief periods, after which it has bounced and remained range-bound.</li>
<li>The jury is still out on the quantum of China's stimulus and lackluster property data, but positive indicators like the PMI beating at 50.1 (vs. expectations of 49.9) were encouraging. </li>
<li>We provide updates for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kumba-iron-ore-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25094:1" rel="noopener">Kumba Iron Ore (KIO SJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/champion-iron-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19734:1" rel="noopener">Champion Iron (CIA AU)</a>, which just released their results. </li>
</ul>


The iron ore price has breached the 95 USD/ton level thrice in the last 4 years for very brief periods, after which it has bounced and remained range-bound.
The jury is still out on the quantum of China's stimulus and lackluster property data, but positive indicators like the PMI beating at 50.1 (vs. expectations of 49.9) were encouraging. 
We provide updates for Kumba Iron Ore (KIO SJ) and Champion Iron (CIA AU), which just released their results. 


Iron Ore Tracker (11-Nov-2024): The China Stalemate, But 100 USD/Ton Level Maintained

<ul>
<li>We analyze <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/champion-iron-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Champion Iron's (CIA AU)</a> Q2 2025 results. Forest fires, shutdowns, and logistical issues impacted the quarter, with revenues/profits down 9%/69% YoY.</li>
<li>The company reduced its stockpile of iron ore, but the cash pile still declined 100 mn CAD due to significant capex in the flotation plant and dividend payment. </li>
<li>The consensus (and we) will have to significantly reduce earnings as logistics continues to impact growth. </li>
</ul>


We analyze Champion Iron's (CIA AU) Q2 2025 results. Forest fires, shutdowns, and logistical issues impacted the quarter, with revenues/profits down 9%/69% YoY.
The company reduced its stockpile of iron ore, but the cash pile still declined 100 mn CAD due to significant capex in the flotation plant and dividend payment. 
The consensus (and we) will have to significantly reduce earnings as logistics continues to impact growth. 


Champion Iron (CIA AU) Q2 2025: Too Many Execution Glitches

<ul>
<li>After a brief spell of iron ore prices rising to 108 USD/ton, prices have retraced to 102 USD/ton (-3% WoW) but remain broadly in the 95-130 USD/ton band.</li>
<li>Investors were disappointed with China's announced stimulus measures, citing their vagueness and lack of a specific timetable, resulting in the positive sentiment waning over the last two weeks.</li>
<li>We update investors on Vale's (VALE US) recent <a href="https://api.mziq.com/mzfilemanager/v2/d/53207d1c-63b4-48f1-96b7-19869fae19fe/f3e7e25d-31a1-8e6d-107d-e05c2eb8e08b?origin=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">proposal </a>to the government to settle the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariana_dam_disaster" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mariana Dam</a> disaster.</li>
</ul>


After a brief spell of iron ore prices rising to 108 USD/ton, prices have retraced to 102 USD/ton (-3% WoW) but remain broadly in the 95-130 USD/ton band.
Investors were disappointed with China's announced stimulus measures, citing their vagueness and lack of a specific timetable, resulting in the positive sentiment waning over the last two weeks.
We update investors on Vale's (VALE US) recent proposal to the government to settle the Mariana Dam disaster.


Iron Ore Tracker (21-Oct-2024): China Positive Sentiment Waning

<ul>
<li>Iron underperformed the commodity complex, falling 1.2% WoW, vs the average complex performance of 3% WoW. </li>
<li>PBOC rate cuts have yet to spur borrowing significantly. Despite the seasonal uptick, loan growth has trended negatively.  </li>
<li>We remain cautious till China shows any sign of a pick-up in demand. Indicators like mill margins and property/auto demand continue to be uninspiring. </li>
</ul>


Iron underperformed the commodity complex, falling 1.2% WoW, vs the average complex performance of 3% WoW. 
PBOC rate cuts have yet to spur borrowing significantly. Despite the seasonal uptick, loan growth has trended negatively.  
We remain cautious till China shows any sign of a pick-up in demand. Indicators like mill margins and property/auto demand continue to be uninspiring. 


Iron Ore Tracker (23-Sep-2024): Liquidity in China Provides Relief, Still Bearish Short-Term

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Bell Potter Securities

Bell Potter

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Bell Potter Securities

Bell Potter Securities is a leading Australian stockbroking, investment and financial advisory firm that provides a comprehensive offering of financial services to individuals, institutions and corporations. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>High grade iron concentrates to enable greener steelCIA’s 100%-owned Bloom Lake mine in northern Quebec Canada produces around 15Mtpa of high grade (+66% Fe) iron concentrate.</li><li>This high grade concentrate reduces steel making carbon emissions by around 10% compared with typical hematite ore.</li><li>From 2026, processing plant upgrades will lift around half of CIA’s production to 69% Fe. At this “DR-grade” level, CIA’s concentrates can supply Direct Reduction Iron – Electric Arc Furnace steel producers, ...</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

High grade iron concentrates to enable greener steelCIA’s 100%-owned Bloom Lake mine in northern Quebec Canada produces around 15Mtpa of high grade (+66% Fe) iron concentrate.This high grade concentrate reduces steel making carbon emissions by around 10% compared with typical hematite ore.From 2026, processing plant upgrades will lift around half of CIA’s production to 69% Fe. At this “DR-grade” level, CIA’s concentrates can supply Direct Reduction Iron – Electric Arc Furnace steel producers, ...Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Champion Iron Ltd (CIA): Initiation – Evolving with steel’s transition

Australia

champion Iron Limited is a exploration company. The Company acquires, explores and develops properties for iron ore deposits.

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Champion Iron (CIA AU)

Iron Ore Tracker (11-Nov-2024): The China Stalemate, But 100 USD/Ton Level Maintained

Can the PMI beat of 50.1 (vs expectations 49.9) catalyse a recovery in the iron ore prices ? We eagerly look for the print on TSF next week which...

Sameer Taneja