Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Amman Mineral Internasional / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Following feedback from a global index provider, the IDX (and KSEI) have released the list of shareholders that own more than 1% of a listed company.</li>
<li>Going through the list, we find many strategic holders of stock above 1% and identify 7 companies that could see a float reduction and passive selling in May. </li>
<li>The lower float could see one stock deleted from the index; two others are close. But the risk of Indonesia being downgraded to a frontier market is now behind us.</li>
</ul>


Following feedback from a global index provider, the IDX (and KSEI) have released the list of shareholders that own more than 1% of a listed company.
Going through the list, we find many strategic holders of stock above 1% and identify 7 companies that could see a float reduction and passive selling in May. 
The lower float could see one stock deleted from the index; two others are close. But the risk of Indonesia being downgraded to a frontier market is now behind us.


Indonesia: Holdings Larger than 1% Disclosed; Stocks Affected & Impact

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Indonesia in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Bank Mandiri, Merdeka Copper Gold, Gudang Garam, Medco Energi Internasional, Astra International, Telkom Indonesia.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Indonesia in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Bank Mandiri, Merdeka Copper Gold, Gudang Garam, Medco Energi Internasional, Astra International, Telkom Indonesia.


MS-Indonesia Index Earning Revision (Feb): Bank Mandiri, Merdeka Copper Gold, Gudang Garam

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Indonesia in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on XL Axiata, Telkom Indonesia (Persero), Vale Indonesia, Bank Mandiri Persero, Astra International, Sariguna Primatirta, Aneka Tambang Persero.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Indonesia in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on XL Axiata, Telkom Indonesia (Persero), Vale Indonesia, Bank Mandiri Persero, Astra International, Sariguna Primatirta, Aneka Tambang Persero.


MS-Indonesia Index Earning Revision (Jan): XL Axiata, Telkom Indonesia, Vale Indonesia

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Equity Bottom-Up

Charoen Pokphand Indonesia / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>2Q25 net profit came in at Rp363bn (-76% qoq, -66% yoy), relatively in line with our est., driven by weak topline and margin compression.</li><li>Margins declined across all segments, led by steep compression in processed food and losses in broiler and DOC.</li><li>We maintain Buy with a lower TP of Rp6,400, reflecting trimmed FY25/26F earnings and margin assumptions.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

2Q25 net profit came in at Rp363bn (-76% qoq, -66% yoy), relatively in line with our est., driven by weak topline and margin compression.Margins declined across all segments, led by steep compression in processed food and losses in broiler and DOC.We maintain Buy with a lower TP of Rp6,400, reflecting trimmed FY25/26F earnings and margin assumptions.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Charoen Pokphand Indonesia (CPIN.IJ) -  2Q25 In Line Earnings: Margin Pressure...

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The precondition for the PAG privatisation offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-fengxiang-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29164:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK)</a> is satisfied. The composite document will be despatched by 11 July. </li>
<li>Despite being a 39.9% discount to the IPO price, the offer is attractive compared to precedent transactions and peer multiples. </li>
<li>The scheme vote remains low-risk due to the irrevocables, the lack of protest votes at the recent AGM, and the signalling from PAG’s decision not to introduce a scrip offer. </li>
</ul>


The precondition for the PAG privatisation offer for Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK) is satisfied. The composite document will be despatched by 11 July. 
Despite being a 39.9% discount to the IPO price, the offer is attractive compared to precedent transactions and peer multiples. 
The scheme vote remains low-risk due to the irrevocables, the lack of protest votes at the recent AGM, and the signalling from PAG’s decision not to introduce a scrip offer. 


Fengxiang (9977 HK): Precondition Satisfied

Indonesia

PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk is a leading Indonesian company primarily engaged in the poultry and egg production industry. It manufactures and sells poultry feed, day-old chicks, and processed chicken products under various brands, and also operates in food processing, preservation of meat, and animal pharmaceutical products. The company was founded on July 2, 1972, and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.

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Charoen Pokphand Indonesia (CPIN IJ)

Indonesia: Holdings Larger than 1% Disclosed; Stocks Affected & Impact

Stocks that are expected to be downweighted (or deleted) have underperformed the index and peers. Index providers could announce their future...

Brian Freitas

MS-Indonesia Index Earning Revision (Feb): Bank Mandiri, Merdeka Copper Gold, Gudang Garam

We analyzed MS-Indonesia's consensus for Feb 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Bank Mandiri, Merdeka Copper Gold, Gudang Garam, Medco Energi...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

MS-Indonesia Index Earning Revision (Jan): XL Axiata, Telkom Indonesia, Vale Indonesia

We analyzed MS-Indonesia's consensus for Jan 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in XL Axiata (EXCL IJ), Telkom Indonesia (Persero) (TLKM IJ), Vale...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM