IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

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Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>PAG has decided not to introduce the share alternative offer. Therefore, its offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-fengxiang-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29164:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK)</a> will be all-cash at HK$2.00 per H share.</li>
<li>The recent Goldlion and Soundwill deal breaks have undoubtedly increased the vote risk, particularly as the blocking stake is below the HKEx substantial shareholder disclosure threshold. </li>
<li>The decision not to introduce the share alternative offer underscores PAG's confidence in the vote. The lack of protest votes at the recent AGM is helpful for the scheme vote. </li>
</ul>


PAG has decided not to introduce the share alternative offer. Therefore, its offer for Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK) will be all-cash at HK$2.00 per H share.
The recent Goldlion and Soundwill deal breaks have undoubtedly increased the vote risk, particularly as the blocking stake is below the HKEx substantial shareholder disclosure threshold. 
The decision not to introduce the share alternative offer underscores PAG's confidence in the vote. The lack of protest votes at the recent AGM is helpful for the scheme vote. 


Fengxiang (9977 HK): No Share Alternative Offer

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Equity Bottom-Up

Charoen Pokphand Indonesia / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>CPIN posted 1Q25 net profit of Rp1.5tr (+16% qoq, +116% yoy) above our (35%) and cons’ (36%) FY25F, partly supported by normalized tax.</li>
<li>Despite the lower qoq margin in the poultry business, NP was boosted by significant margin recovery in the processed food business.</li>
<li>Maintain BUY with an unchanged TP of Rp6,800, as we maintain our FY25 EBITDA unchanged given the softer 2Q25 earnings outlook.</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


CPIN posted 1Q25 net profit of Rp1.5tr (+16% qoq, +116% yoy) above our (35%) and cons’ (36%) FY25F, partly supported by normalized tax.
Despite the lower qoq margin in the poultry business, NP was boosted by significant margin recovery in the processed food business.
Maintain BUY with an unchanged TP of Rp6,800, as we maintain our FY25 EBITDA unchanged given the softer 2Q25 earnings outlook.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CPIN IJ - Margin Recovery in the Processed Food Business Supported Earnings

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-fengxiang-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29164:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK)</a> has disclosed a preconditional privatisation offer from PAG, the controlling shareholder, at HK$2.00 per H share, a 33.3% premium to the undisturbed price.  </li>
<li>The precondition relates to regulatory approvals. The key conditions for the privatisation will be approval by at least 75% independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). </li>
<li>The shareholders with blocking stakes which have not provided irrevocables will likely be supportive as the offer is reasonable and there is a potential scrip alternative. </li>
</ul>



Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK) has disclosed a preconditional privatisation offer from PAG, the controlling shareholder, at HK$2.00 per H share, a 33.3% premium to the undisturbed price.  
The precondition relates to regulatory approvals. The key conditions for the privatisation will be approval by at least 75% independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). 
The shareholders with blocking stakes which have not provided irrevocables will likely be supportive as the offer is reasonable and there is a potential scrip alternative. 


Fengxiang (9977 HK): PAG’s Preconditional Privatisation Offer at HK$2.00

<ul><li>Despite the high effective tax rate in 4Q24, CPIN reported a net profit of Rp1.3tr (+114% qoq), above ours (107%) and consensus (115%).</li><li>The robust earnings were driven by margin expansion across all business segments, especially the turnover in livebird business.</li><li>We raised FY25-26F est. by 9-16%. Maintain Buy with a higher TP of Rp6,800 as we believe the current -2SD valuation is unjustified.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Despite the high effective tax rate in 4Q24, CPIN reported a net profit of Rp1.3tr (+114% qoq), above ours (107%) and consensus (115%).The robust earnings were driven by margin expansion across all business segments, especially the turnover in livebird business.We raised FY25-26F est. by 9-16%. Maintain Buy with a higher TP of Rp6,800 as we believe the current -2SD valuation is unjustified.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Charoen Pokphand Indonesia (CPIN.IJ) FY24 Results – In Line Core Net Profit

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-fengxiang-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29164:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK)</a> entered a trading halt “pending the release of an announcement pursuant to the Code on Takeovers and Mergers.” PAG, the controlling shareholder, likely aims to privatise Fengxiang. </li>
<li>The offer will likely be structured as a privatisation by merger by absorption requiring approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). </li>
<li>The presence of several substantial shareholders necessitates a reasonable offer. An offer of HK$1.80-2.00 (a 21%—33% premium to the last close) could win over these shareholders' backing.</li>
</ul>



Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK) entered a trading halt “pending the release of an announcement pursuant to the Code on Takeovers and Mergers.” PAG, the controlling shareholder, likely aims to privatise Fengxiang. 
The offer will likely be structured as a privatisation by merger by absorption requiring approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). 
The presence of several substantial shareholders necessitates a reasonable offer. An offer of HK$1.80-2.00 (a 21%—33% premium to the last close) could win over these shareholders' backing.


Fengxiang (9977 HK): Privatisation by PAG?

Indonesia

PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk is a leading Indonesian company primarily engaged in the poultry and egg production industry. It manufactures and sells poultry feed, day-old chicks, and processed chicken products under various brands, and also operates in food processing, preservation of meat, and animal pharmaceutical products. The company was founded on July 2, 1972, and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.

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Charoen Pokphand Indonesia (CPIN IJ)

CPIN IJ - Margin Recovery in the Processed Food Business Supported Earnings

CPIN posted 1Q25 net profit of Rp1.5tr (+16% qoq, +116% yoy) above our (35%) and cons’ (36%) FY25F, partly supported by normalized tax.

BRI Danareksa Research

Fengxiang (9977 HK): PAG’s Preconditional Privatisation Offer at HK$2.00

The shareholders with blocking stakes which have not provided irrevocables will likely be supportive as the offer is reasonable and there is a...

Arun George