IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>PAG is the successful bidder for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-fengxiang-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29164:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK)</a>'s controlling shareholder’s 70.92% stake at HK$1.5132 per H Share (RMB1.3822 per domestic share).</li>
<li>As PAG has no compulsory acquisition rights, it will also seek shareholder delisting approval. The MGO is not conditional on the approval of the delisting resolution.</li>
<li>The share sale transfer requires SAMR approval which will be forthcoming. Our best guess is the MGO completes end-January 2023. At the last close, the gross spread is 14.6%.</li>
</ul>


PAG is the successful bidder for Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK)'s controlling shareholder’s 70.92% stake at HK$1.5132 per H Share (RMB1.3822 per domestic share).
As PAG has no compulsory acquisition rights, it will also seek shareholder delisting approval. The MGO is not conditional on the approval of the delisting resolution.
The share sale transfer requires SAMR approval which will be forthcoming. Our best guess is the MGO completes end-January 2023. At the last close, the gross spread is 14.6%.


Fengxiang’s Unconditional MGO at HK$ 1.5132 from PAG

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Float and capping changes will require passive trackers to sell <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ)</a> while buying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo (GOTO IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telekomunikasi-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1051:1" rel="noopener">Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ)</a>. </li>
<li>There will be passive changes to other stocks too, though the impact is not material on most of the stocks.</li>
<li>The passive buying on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo (GOTO IJ)</a> on Monday offers an avenue to exit the stock ahead of the huge lock-up expiry on 30 November.</li>
</ul>


Float and capping changes will require passive trackers to sell Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) and Emtek (EMTK IJ) while buying GoTo (GOTO IJ) and Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ). 
There will be passive changes to other stocks too, though the impact is not material on most of the stocks.
The passive buying on GoTo (GOTO IJ) on Monday offers an avenue to exit the stock ahead of the huge lock-up expiry on 30 November.


IDX30/​LQ45/​IDX80 Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes on Monday

<ul>
<li>A <a href="https://susong-item.taobao.com/auction/683969821701.htm?spm=a213w.7398554.paiList.1.51e41fa3epY51Y" target="_blank" rel="noopener">successful bidder</a> (identity unknown at the time of writing) has emerged for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-fengxiang-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29164:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK)</a> controlling shareholder’s 70.92% stake at the base bid price of RMB1,372.2 million.</li>
<li>As the bidder will hold 30% or more of the voting rights, it will result in an MGO at RMB1.383 per share (HK$1.526 at the <a href="https://www.bankofchina.com/sourcedb/whpj/enindex_1619.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">median BOC</a> FX of 0.9056).  </li>
<li>The transfer of the sale shares is subject to completion procedures. Our best guess is the offer completes end-January 2023. At the last close, the gross spread is 15.6%. </li>
</ul>


A successful bidder (identity unknown at the time of writing) has emerged for Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK) controlling shareholder’s 70.92% stake at the base bid price of RMB1,372.2 million.
As the bidder will hold 30% or more of the voting rights, it will result in an MGO at RMB1.383 per share (HK$1.526 at the median BOC FX of 0.9056).  
The transfer of the sale shares is subject to completion procedures. Our best guess is the offer completes end-January 2023. At the last close, the gross spread is 15.6%. 


Fengxiang’s Judical Auction Successful, MGO Upcoming

<ul>
<li>On 16 September, the administrator published the details for the auction of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-fengxiang-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29164:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Fengxiang Co Ltd-H (9977 HK)</a> controlling shareholder’s 70.92% stake in Alibaba Judicial Auction. </li>
<li>If the auction is successful and results in any person and a group of persons acting in concert holding 30%+ of the voting rights, it will result in an MGO.</li>
<li>The base bid implies an MGO price of HK$1.563 per H Share, a 103.0% premium to the last close. The auction will be held from 10 October to 11 October.</li>
</ul>


On 16 September, the administrator published the details for the auction of Shandong Fengxiang Co Ltd-H (9977 HK) controlling shareholder’s 70.92% stake in Alibaba Judicial Auction. 
If the auction is successful and results in any person and a group of persons acting in concert holding 30%+ of the voting rights, it will result in an MGO.
The base bid implies an MGO price of HK$1.563 per H Share, a 103.0% premium to the last close. The auction will be held from 10 October to 11 October.


Fengxiang’s Judicial Auction Set for 10 October, Potential MGO

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek-goto" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo (GOTO IJ)</a> completes 20 trading days today. Based on the average price over the period and the last close, the stock meets the Fast Entry criteria for IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 inclusion.</li>
<li>Using a free float of 66%, we estimate passive trackers buying 5.42bn shares (US$74m) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek-goto" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo (GOTO IJ)</a>. Announcement could come in a few days with implementation at month-end. </li>
<li>With the real float close to 4%, passive trackers will need to buy 11.6% of the real float and the stock could move higher in the short-term.</li>
</ul>



GoTo (GOTO IJ) completes 20 trading days today. Based on the average price over the period and the last close, the stock meets the Fast Entry criteria for IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 inclusion.
Using a free float of 66%, we estimate passive trackers buying 5.42bn shares (US$74m) of GoTo (GOTO IJ). Announcement could come in a few days with implementation at month-end. 
With the real float close to 4%, passive trackers will need to buy 11.6% of the real float and the stock could move higher in the short-term.


GoTo Gojek Tokopedia: Turning Tide with Index Inclusion?

Indonesia

PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk is a leading Indonesian company primarily engaged in the poultry and egg production industry. It manufactures and sells poultry feed, day-old chicks, and processed chicken products under various brands, and also operates in food processing, preservation of meat, and animal pharmaceutical products. The company was founded on July 2, 1972, and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.

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Charoen Pokphand Indonesia (CPIN IJ)

Fengxiang’s Unconditional MGO at HK$ 1.5132 from PAG

The unconditional MGO is HK$1.5132 per H Share. Our best guess is the MGO completes end-January 2023. At the last close, the gross spread is 14.6%.

Arun George

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes on Monday

Float and capping changes will result in selling on BBCA & EMTK and buying on GOTO, TLKM, BMRI, BBRI & ASII. This is an opportunity to sell some...

Brian Freitas

Fengxiang’s Judical Auction Successful, MGO Upcoming

The succesful bid will result in an MGO at HK$1.526 (at the median BOC FX of 0.9056). Our best guess is the offer completes end-January 2023. At...

Arun George

Fengxiang’s Judicial Auction Set for 10 October, Potential MGO

If the auction is successful, it will result in an MGO. The base bid implies an MGO price of HK$1.563 per H Share, a 103.0% premium to the last close.

Arun George

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia: Turning Tide with Index Inclusion?

GoTo completes 20 trading days today. The stock meets the threshold for Fast Entry to the IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 indices where passive trackers will need...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Fengxiang’s Unconditional MGO at HK$ 1.5132 from PAG

The unconditional MGO is HK$1.5132 per H Share. Our best guess is the MGO completes end-January 2023. At the last close, the gross spread is 14.6%.

Arun George

IDX30/​LQ45/​IDX80 Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes on Monday

Float and capping changes will result in selling on BBCA & EMTK and buying on GOTO, TLKM, BMRI, BBRI & ASII. This is an opportunity to sell some...

Brian Freitas

Fengxiang’s Judical Auction Successful, MGO Upcoming

The succesful bid will result in an MGO at HK$1.526 (at the median BOC FX of 0.9056). Our best guess is the offer completes end-January 2023. At...

Arun George

Fengxiang’s Judicial Auction Set for 10 October, Potential MGO

If the auction is successful, it will result in an MGO. The base bid implies an MGO price of HK$1.563 per H Share, a 103.0% premium to the last close.

Arun George

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia: Turning Tide with Index Inclusion?

GoTo completes 20 trading days today. The stock meets the threshold for Fast Entry to the IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 indices where passive trackers will need...

Brian Freitas

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes on Monday