Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Despite the bulls still being in control, we have several ongoing concerns and we cannot rule out the potential for a pullback. Below we highlight developments that are inconsistent with a major bottom in equities that suggests the broad equity market is not yet out of the woods.  In fact, during today's action, the 2760 support level on the S&amp;P 500 briefly held but ultimately gave way. With the SPX holding below 2760 today, we are looking for downside targets of 2650 first, and then potentially 2470 if that fails to hold.</p>

Despite the bulls still being in control, we have several ongoing concerns and we cannot rule out the potential for a pullback. Below we highlight developments that are inconsistent with a major bottom in equities that suggests the broad equity market is not yet out of the woods.  In fact, during today's action, the 2760 support level on the S&amp;P 500 briefly held but ultimately gave way. With the SPX holding below 2760 today, we are looking for downside targets of 2650 first, and then potentially 2470 if that fails to hold.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Several Indicators Suggest a Pullback Likely

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><p>In our weekly notes, we’ve been circling around an insight that is beginning to crystallize. Covid 19 is an accelerator of secular shifts in consumer preferences that is magnifying (or will magnify) those business models most equipped to benefit from them.</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div></div></div>

In our weekly notes, we’ve been circling around an insight that is beginning to crystallize. Covid 19 is an accelerator of secular shifts in consumer preferences that is magnifying (or will magnify) those business models most equipped to benefit from them.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Coronavirus as Secular Accelerator II: US Media/Telco Edition

<p>Continued encouraging COVID-19 news and accommodative moves by the Fed have allowed the bulls to remain in control while short-term support on the S&amp;P 500 held near 2,450. While the bulls remain in control in the short-term, we continue to believe the broad equity market is not yet out of the woods and remains vulnerable -- particularly as Wall Street sentiment has flipped bullish. In today’s report we highlight attractive stocks from a relative strength perspective across Sectors.</p>

Continued encouraging COVID-19 news and accommodative moves by the Fed have allowed the bulls to remain in control while short-term support on the S&amp;P 500 held near 2,450. While the bulls remain in control in the short-term, we continue to believe the broad equity market is not yet out of the woods and remains vulnerable -- particularly as Wall Street sentiment has flipped bullish. In today’s report we highlight attractive stocks from a relative strength perspective across Sectors.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bulls Still In Driver’s Seat, But For How Long?

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Dimitris Ioannidis

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 5 additions and 5 deletions expected in Nasdaq100 at the June 2026 review following the new methodology.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rocket-lab-usa-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37023:1" rel="noopener">Rocket Lab (RKLB US)</a> is forecasted to become eligible <em>after</em> the June 2026 review following its recent listing transfer from the Nasdaq Capital Market to Nasdaq Global Market.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/flex-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36680:1" rel="noopener">Flex (FLEX US)</a> is projected to be a high-impact addition to Nasdaq100 combined with its expected S&amp;P500 inclusion in June 2026.</li>
</ul>


There are 5 additions and 5 deletions expected in Nasdaq100 at the June 2026 review following the new methodology.

Rocket Lab (RKLB US) is forecasted to become eligible after the June 2026 review following its recent listing transfer from the Nasdaq Capital Market to Nasdaq Global Market.

Flex (FLEX US) is projected to be a high-impact addition to Nasdaq100 combined with its expected S&amp;P500 inclusion in June 2026.


Rocket Lab (RKLB US): Delayed Launch Into Nasdaq100 After 10 Expected Changes in Jun26

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/costar-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16907:1" rel="noopener">Costar Group (CSGP US)</a> will be deleted from Nasdaq100 on 15 May 2026 due to the fast-exit rule, which has been implemented for the last time with the old methodology.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lumentum-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12529:1" rel="noopener">Lumentum Holdings (LITE US)</a> will be added to the index replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/costar-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16907:1" rel="noopener">Costar Group (CSGP US)</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coreweave-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44471:1" rel="noopener">CoreWeave (CRWV US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medline-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45954:1" rel="noopener">Medline (MDLN US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/teradyne-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13088:1" rel="noopener">Teradyne Inc (TER US)</a> are now the top addition candidates to replace the upcoming deletions in June 2026 with the new methodology.</li>
</ul>



Costar Group (CSGP US) will be deleted from Nasdaq100 on 15 May 2026 due to the fast-exit rule, which has been implemented for the last time with the old methodology.

Lumentum Holdings (LITE US) will be added to the index replacing Costar Group (CSGP US).

CoreWeave (CRWV US), Medline (MDLN US) and Teradyne Inc (TER US) are now the top addition candidates to replace the upcoming deletions in June 2026 with the new methodology.


Lumentum (LITE US): Nasdaq100 Inclusion Driven by Costar’s Fast‑Exit

United States

Charter Communications, Inc. operates as a cable telecommunications company. The Company offers cable broadcasting, internet, voice, and mass media services. Charter Communications serves customers in the United States.

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Charter Communications (CHTR US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Several Indicators Suggest a Pullback Likely

Despite the bulls still being in control, we have several ongoing concerns and we cannot rule out the potential for a pullback. Below we highlight...

Vermilion Research

Coronavirus as Secular Accelerator II: US Media/Telco Edition

In our weekly notes, we’ve been circling around an insight that is beginning to crystallize. Covid 19 is an accelerator of secular shifts in...

Aaron Gabin

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bulls Still In Driver’s Seat, But For How Long?

Continued encouraging COVID-19 news and accommodative moves by the Fed have allowed the bulls to remain in control while short-term support on the...

Vermilion Research

Rocket Lab (RKLB US): Delayed Launch Into Nasdaq100 After 10 Expected Changes in Jun26

From the methodology footnote it was derived that Nasdaq-affiliated exchanges exclude the Nasdaq Capital Market where RKLB traded until May26 so...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Lumentum (LITE US): Nasdaq100 Inclusion Driven by Costar’s Fast‑Exit

Costar will be removed from Nasdaq100 via fast‑exit on 15 May with Lumentum replacing it, while Medline, CoreWeave and Teradyne are the top...

Dimitris Ioannidis

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