Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the month of November 2024, 14 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$15bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in November was ~44%. The average premium YTD is ~43%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of November 2024, 14 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$15bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in November was ~44%. The average premium YTD is ~43%.
This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Nov 2024: Net One System, Amcor/Berry, I D & E Holdings, SG Fleet, Macromill

<ul>
<li>There are people who'll take profit in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I (3382 JP)</a> because of path dependency til year-end. It will drag out a while: buy the dips, trim on pops.</li>
<li>Just like in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lufax-holding-ltd-b751749a-8feb-4b4d-85a7-d99ac0308fe7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40067:1" rel="noopener">Lufax Holding (6623 HK)</a>'s special dividend, expect Ping An to boost its holding in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technology-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK)</a> via the stealthy scrip dividend option. </li>
<li>The landscape for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nec-networks-system-integr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16396:1" rel="noopener">Nec Networks &amp; System Integr (1973 JP)</a> has FULLY changed. The details now matter quite a bit. NEC has two basic choices. Neither are that palatable.  </li>
</ul>


There are people who'll take profit in Seven &amp; I (3382 JP) because of path dependency til year-end. It will drag out a while: buy the dips, trim on pops.
Just like in Lufax Holding (6623 HK)'s special dividend, expect Ping An to boost its holding in Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) via the stealthy scrip dividend option. 
The landscape for Nec Networks &amp; System Integr (1973 JP) has FULLY changed. The details now matter quite a bit. NEC has two basic choices. Neither are that palatable.  


Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, PA Gooddoctor, Nec Networks, Genscript/Legend, ASM PT, Hanwha

Nec Networks & System Integr / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 48 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Six new deals this week! TOs for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agro-kanesho-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17621:1" rel="noopener">Agro Kanesho (4955 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nishimoto-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44086:1" rel="noopener">Nishimoto (9260 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chita-kogyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9882:1" rel="noopener">Chita Kogyo (5993 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macromill-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24026:1" rel="noopener">Macromill (3978 JP)</a>. Also <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/silk-logistics-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35733:1" rel="noopener">Silk Logistics (SLH AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avarga-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13105:1" rel="noopener">Avarga (AVARGA SP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-smiles-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2891:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asm-pacific-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15061:1" rel="noopener">ASMPT (522 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nec-networks-system-integr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16396:1" rel="noopener">Nec Networks &amp; System Integr (1973 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I (3382 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/malaysia-airports-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:117:1" rel="noopener">Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 48 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Six new deals this week! TOs for Agro Kanesho (4955 JP), Nishimoto (9260 JP), Chita Kogyo (5993 JP), Macromill (3978 JP). Also Silk Logistics (SLH AU) and Avarga (AVARGA SP).
Key updates took place on: Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU), ASMPT (522 HK), Nec Networks &amp; System Integr (1973 JP), Seven &amp; I (3382 JP), and Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Agro Kanesho, Nishimoto, Chita Kogyo, Macromill, Silk Logistics, Avarga, MAHB

<ul>
<li>For the month of October 2024, 10 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$9bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in October was ~26%. The average premium YTD is ~42%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of October 2024, 10 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$9bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in October was ~26%. The average premium YTD is ~42%.
This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2024: Arcadium, T Gaia, Elematec, NEC Network, MPHB, Sigma Health, Fuji Soft

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the December 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We currently do not see any index changes for ASX 20 and ASX 100.</li>
<li>We continue to expect one change for ASX 50. However, our expectations for ASX 200 have changed since our last insight (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-leaderboard-asx-dec-24-three-changes-possible-new-long-short-ideas?slug=quiddity-leaderboard-asx-dec-24-three-changes-possible-new-long-short-ideas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">link</a>).</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the December 2024 index rebal event.
We currently do not see any index changes for ASX 20 and ASX 100.
We continue to expect one change for ASX 50. However, our expectations for ASX 200 have changed since our last insight (link).


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 24: Clarity Pharma and Resolute Mining Competing for ASX 200 Spot

Australia

Charter Hall Retail REIT owns a portfolio of supermarkets and shopping centers located in non-metropolitan areas throughout Australia, New Zealand and the United States.

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Charter Hall Retail Reit (CQR AU)

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Nov 2024: Net One System, Amcor/Berry, I D & E Holdings, SG Fleet, Macromill

For Nov 2024, 14 new transactions were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$15bn. The ave. premium for these new transactions...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, PA Gooddoctor, Nec Networks, Genscript/Legend, ASM PT, Hanwha

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Agro Kanesho, Nishimoto, Chita Kogyo, Macromill, Silk Logistics, Avarga, MAHB

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2024: Arcadium, T Gaia, Elematec, NEC Network, MPHB, Sigma Health, Fuji Soft

For the month of Oct, 10 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$9bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 24: Clarity Pharma and Resolute Mining Competing for ASX 200 Spot

Spark New Zealand (SPK AU) is a high-conviction ASX 200 DEL. Clarity Pharma (CU6 AU) is leading the race to become an ASX 200 add and Resolute...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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