Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

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Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>In this era of increased 0DTE option trading, VXST is a more useful sentiment indicator, and readings are indicating a fear spike.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 has become sufficiently short-term oversold that a relief rally is imminent.</li>
<li>However, oversold markets can become more oversold and market internals could be supportive of one final sentiment flush before a durable bottom can be seen.</li>
</ul>


In this era of increased 0DTE option trading, VXST is a more useful sentiment indicator, and readings are indicating a fear spike.
The S&amp;P 500 has become sufficiently short-term oversold that a relief rally is imminent.
However, oversold markets can become more oversold and market internals could be supportive of one final sentiment flush before a durable bottom can be seen.


Has the VIX Lost Its Use As A Fear Gauge?

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

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Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

<ul>
<li>The awkward and conflicting statement of the ECB accompanying the tenth and likely final rate increase.</li>
<li>Chinese credit growth remains tepid at best, signaling downside risks for equities and the Euro.</li>
<li>Three ugly UK recession charts this week will put additional pressure on the British Pound. And our Fear &amp; Frenzy is agonizingly close to Frenzy territory, triggering a sell signal.</li>
</ul>


The awkward and conflicting statement of the ECB accompanying the tenth and likely final rate increase.
Chinese credit growth remains tepid at best, signaling downside risks for equities and the Euro.
Three ugly UK recession charts this week will put additional pressure on the British Pound. And our Fear &amp; Frenzy is agonizingly close to Frenzy territory, triggering a sell signal.


The Weekly Market Monitor – The ECB’s Unreasonable Hike While the UK Falls into Recession

<ul>
<li>We scrutinize market dynamics following the blowout earnings report of the world’s hottest stock, NVIDIA. Something definitely changed.</li>
<li>Incoming PMI data from the Eurozone seriously questions the ‘soft landing narrative,’ which we think should force the end of the global central bank tightening cycle. </li>
<li>China’s economic woes continue to grow, and the focus has now shifted to ending the stellar depreciation of the Yuan.</li>
</ul>


We scrutinize market dynamics following the blowout earnings report of the world’s hottest stock, NVIDIA. Something definitely changed.
Incoming PMI data from the Eurozone seriously questions the ‘soft landing narrative,’ which we think should force the end of the global central bank tightening cycle. 
China’s economic woes continue to grow, and the focus has now shifted to ending the stellar depreciation of the Yuan.


The Weekly Market Monitor – One Strike, Two Strikes, …

<ul>
<li>Our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has been in the Frenzy territory for several weeks, indicating at least a temporary pullback in the stock markets. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a>.</li>
<li>The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, the Equity Put/Call Ratio, the Relative Strength Index (RSI, the SKEW Index, and ETF and Mutual Fund Flows all push the index toward Frenzy.</li>
<li>Together with slower economic momentum globally and pockets of elevated stock market valuation, like US tech stocks, downside looms.</li>
</ul>


Our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has been in the Frenzy territory for several weeks, indicating at least a temporary pullback in the stock markets. S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX).
The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, the Equity Put/Call Ratio, the Relative Strength Index (RSI, the SKEW Index, and ETF and Mutual Fund Flows all push the index toward Frenzy.
Together with slower economic momentum globally and pockets of elevated stock market valuation, like US tech stocks, downside looms.


This Is a ‘Frenzy’ Market, and the Rally Should End Now!

<ul>
<li>The MOVE/VIX ratio has spiked again, surging to above 8, close to a level two standard deviations above average.</li>
<li>Equities have underperformed Treasuries most of the time when the MOVE/VIX ratio exceeds 7.0.</li>
<li>Should the VIX Index rise above 20 from here, the outlook for equities becomes even more unfavorable relative to Treasuries.</li>
</ul>


The MOVE/VIX ratio has spiked again, surging to above 8, close to a level two standard deviations above average.
Equities have underperformed Treasuries most of the time when the MOVE/VIX ratio exceeds 7.0.
Should the VIX Index rise above 20 from here, the outlook for equities becomes even more unfavorable relative to Treasuries.


Cross-Asset Volatility: Flashing Red for Equities

United States

The VIX Index is a financial benchmark designed to be an up-to-the-minute market estimate of the expected volatility of the S&P 500® Index, and is calculated by using the midpoint of real-time S&P 500 Index (SPX) option bid/ask quotes.

Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX INDEX)

Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index

Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX INDEX)

Has the VIX Lost Its Use As A Fear Gauge?

In this era of increased 0DTE option trading, VXST is a more useful sentiment indicator, and readings are indicating a fear spike. The market has...

Cam Hui

The Weekly Market Monitor – The ECB’s Unreasonable Hike While the UK Falls into Recession

Markets got a dovish ECB hike but wrapped in a highly conflicting message, and one that will likely qualify as a policy mistake in hindsight.

Jeroen Blokland

The Weekly Market Monitor – One Strike, Two Strikes, …

Market reaction to lower-than-expected US inflation numbers and blowout NVIDIA earnings is different from what is used to be. Three strikes and out?

Jeroen Blokland

This Is a ‘Frenzy’ Market, and the Rally Should End Now!

Our Fear & Frenzy Sentiment Index has remained in 'Frenzy' territory for over two weeks. Based on history, this suggests a pullback in equity...

Jeroen Blokland

Cross-Asset Volatility: Flashing Red for Equities

The MOVE/VIX ratio has surged again, reflecting heightened volatility in the Treasury market compared to equities. This volatility discrepancy is...

Jeroen Blokland