Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in 4/1/25 and 4/3/25 reports how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious</li>
<li>While it is possible that the lows are in, we now are looking for the ACWI-US rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or the 200-day MA (~$118).</li>
</ul>


Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.
However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in 4/1/25 and 4/3/25 reports how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious
While it is possible that the lows are in, we now are looking for the ACWI-US rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or the 200-day MA (~$118).


Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Several Chinese banks have handed out loans to support selected tech firms’ merger-and-acquisition (M&amp;A) deals under a newly launched pilot program to improve access to credit for innovative businesses.</li><li>China Construction Bank, one of the country’s biggest state-owned lenders, has issued 190 million yuan ($26.3 million) in an M&amp;A loan to a publicly listed tech firm in Suzhou, Jiangsu province, people familiar with the deal told Caixin.</li><li>The loan, covering 80% of the acquisition cost with an eight-year term, is the first loan of this type disbursed by a large state bank after the easing M&amp;A loan policies by financial regulators to help tech enterprises.</li></ul>

Several Chinese banks have handed out loans to support selected tech firms’ merger-and-acquisition (M&amp;A) deals under a newly launched pilot program to improve access to credit for innovative businesses.China Construction Bank, one of the country’s biggest state-owned lenders, has issued 190 million yuan ($26.3 million) in an M&amp;A loan to a publicly listed tech firm in Suzhou, Jiangsu province, people familiar with the deal told Caixin.The loan, covering 80% of the acquisition cost with an eight-year term, is the first loan of this type disbursed by a large state bank after the easing M&amp;A loan policies by financial regulators to help tech enterprises.

Chinese Banks Relax Loan Terms to Fuel Tech Sector M&A Deals 

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Weekly recap of key option metrics across single stocks, including most active names and strikes, largest volume increases, biggest movers, and key earnings reports.</li>
<li>Post-Earnings performance of Tencent, Xiaomi, Anta, and China Tower analyzed.</li>
<li>Financials take center stage with several major earnings releases on deck this week.</li>
</ul>


Weekly recap of key option metrics across single stocks, including most active names and strikes, largest volume increases, biggest movers, and key earnings reports.
Post-Earnings performance of Tencent, Xiaomi, Anta, and China Tower analyzed.
Financials take center stage with several major earnings releases on deck this week.


Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Mar 17–21): Tencent, Xiaomi, and Financials in the Spotlight

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook</li>
<li>The investment world has turned upside down where established norms have gone into reverse.</li>
<li>The new investing environment needs to be paid attention to.</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
The investment world has turned upside down where established norms have gone into reverse.
The new investing environment needs to be paid attention to.


<ul>
<li>One key element was the linking of consumption to the wealth effect</li>
<li>Continuation of targeted support for certain vulnerable sections of society</li>
<li>Tactical changes as well as structural ones to support consumption longer-term</li>
</ul>


One key element was the linking of consumption to the wealth effect
Continuation of targeted support for certain vulnerable sections of society
Tactical changes as well as structural ones to support consumption longer-term


China Consumption Plan: How Special Is This “Special Plan”?

China

China CITIC Bank Corporation Limited provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, domestic settlement,  currency trading, bank guarantee, and other services. China CITIC Bank provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Dividend (Yield)	0.00

China Citic Bank Corp Ltd H (998 HK)

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities. Looking for the $ACWI rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or...

Vermilion Research

Chinese Banks Relax Loan Terms to Fuel Tech Sector M&A Deals

Several Chinese banks have handed out loans to support selected tech firms’ merger-and-acquisition (M&A) deals under a newly launched pilot...

Caixin Global

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Mar 17–21): Tencent, Xiaomi, and Financials in the Spotlight

Weekly recap of key option metrics for single stocks, analysis of post-earnings performance for Tencent, Xiaomi, Anta, and China Tower, and focus...

John Ley

Overview#20 - Welcome to Bizzaro World!

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. The new investing landscape is a complete reversal of what has worked...

Rikki Malik

China Consumption Plan: How Special Is This “Special Plan”?

One key new element is the linking consumption to the wealth effect, while continuing targeted support for vulnerable groups and structural changes

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities. Looking for the $ACWI rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or...

Vermilion Research

Chinese Banks Relax Loan Terms to Fuel Tech Sector M&A Deals

Several Chinese banks have handed out loans to support selected tech firms’ merger-and-acquisition (M&A) deals under a newly launched pilot...

Caixin Global

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Mar 17–21): Tencent, Xiaomi, and Financials in the Spotlight

​Weekly recap of key option metrics for single stocks, analysis of post-earnings performance for Tencent, Xiaomi, Anta, and China Tower, and focus...

John Ley

Overview#20 - Welcome to Bizzaro World!

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. The new investing landscape is a complete reversal of what has worked...

Rikki Malik

China Consumption Plan: How Special Is This “Special Plan”?

One key new element is the linking consumption to the wealth effect, while continuing targeted support for vulnerable groups and structural changes

Rikki Malik

Weekly recap of key option metrics for single stocks, analysis of post-earnings performance for Tencent, Xiaomi, Anta, and China Tower, and focus...