Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 25 adds and 29 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the March rebalance to take the number of index constituents down to 514.</li>
<li>We expect 21 of the 25 HSCI inclusions to be added to Stock Connect while we expect 27 of the 29 HSCI deletions to be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.</li>
<li>Since the start of the year, shares held though Southbound Connect have increased on 22 of the 29 HSCI deletions and there could be some unwinding in the weeks ahead.</li>
</ul>


There are 25 adds and 29 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the March rebalance to take the number of index constituents down to 514.
We expect 21 of the 25 HSCI inclusions to be added to Stock Connect while we expect 27 of the 29 HSCI deletions to be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.
Since the start of the year, shares held though Southbound Connect have increased on 22 of the 29 HSCI deletions and there could be some unwinding in the weeks ahead.


HSCI Index Rebalance: 25 Adds, 29 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/posco-dx-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5198:1" rel="noopener">Posco DX (022100 KS)</a> continues to drop following its section transfer from the KOSDAQ market to the KOSPI market. Short interest in the stock nearly halved in December.</li>
<li>There were big net inflows to China ETFs with creations in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a> ETFs and redemptions in ETFs tracking the CSI 500 Index and CSI 1000 Index.</li>
<li>Creations continued in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-223f5da3-7054-4e4f-bc55-b7f0852c2581" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31998:1" rel="noopener">iShares Emerging Markets ex China (EMXC US)</a> ETF with units outstanding reaching a new high.</li>
</ul>



Posco DX (022100 KS) continues to drop following its section transfer from the KOSDAQ market to the KOSPI market. Short interest in the stock nearly halved in December.
There were big net inflows to China ETFs with creations in CSI 300 Index ETFs and redemptions in ETFs tracking the CSI 500 Index and CSI 1000 Index.
Creations continued in the iShares Emerging Markets ex China (EMXC US) ETF with units outstanding reaching a new high.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSCI, KRX New Deal, NIFTY50, NEXT50, CNXBANK

<ul>
<li>We see 30 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 28 potential deletes (on market cap and liquidity) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.</li>
<li>We expect 26 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 25 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.</li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 30 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 28 potential deletes (on market cap and liquidity) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.
We expect 26 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 25 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in March

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

China Conch Venture Holdings / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-conch-venture-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19943:1" rel="noopener">China Conch Venture Holdings (586 HK)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anhui-conch-cement-co-ltd-094855ab-abec-4b71-956b-5bfc85e22fdd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:389:1" rel="noopener">Anhui Conch Cement (600585 CH)</a> ratio, and the implied stub, are now at all-time lows.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on China Conch/Anhui are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. </li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


The China Conch Venture Holdings (586 HK)/ Anhui Conch Cement (600585 CH) ratio, and the implied stub, are now at all-time lows.
Preceding my comments on China Conch/Anhui are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. 
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


<ul>
<li>
Australian tax-loss selling is a thing. Retail investors will take gains on things that run up in price, or get taken over, then look for losses.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-conch-venture-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19943:1" rel="noopener">China Conch Venture Holdings (586 HK)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anhui-conch-cement-co-ltd-094855ab-abec-4b71-956b-5bfc85e22fdd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:389:1" rel="noopener">Anhui Conch Cement (600585 CH)</a> ratio is at an all-time low. The implied stub is re-testing its all-time low.</li>
<li>Historically, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1" rel="noopener">Canon (7751 JP)</a>'s buybacks are aggressive. It may pay to observe market data to see when they are done. It may also pay to look at peer outperformance cycles. </li>
</ul>



Australian tax-loss selling is a thing. Retail investors will take gains on things that run up in price, or get taken over, then look for losses.
The China Conch Venture Holdings (586 HK) / Anhui Conch Cement (600585 CH) ratio is at an all-time low. The implied stub is re-testing its all-time low.
Historically, Canon (7751 JP)'s buybacks are aggressive. It may pay to observe market data to see when they are done. It may also pay to look at peer outperformance cycles. 


Last Week in Event SPACE:Tax-Loss Selling In Australia, China Conch/Anhui Conch, Canon, Rakuten

Hong Kong

China Conch Environment Protection Holdings (587 HK)

China Conch Environment Protection Holdings

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China Conch Environment Protection Holdings (587 HK)

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StubWorld: China Conch Plumbs New Lows

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Last Week in Event SPACE:Tax-Loss Selling In Australia, China Conch/Anhui Conch, Canon, Rakuten

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

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