Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Jan. PMI readings corroborate what investors had already known over the break. But it is noteworthy that SMEs appear much less upbeat than large corporations.  </li>
<li>SMEs account for 60% of GDP and an even higher proportion of job creation. Policy support has been keeping many of them afloat throughout the pandemic. </li>
<li>As the deadline on the PBOC's SME support program is fast approaching, small regional banks may bear the brunt of the impact on the financial system.</li>
</ul>


The Jan. PMI readings corroborate what investors had already known over the break. But it is noteworthy that SMEs appear much less upbeat than large corporations.  
SMEs account for 60% of GDP and an even higher proportion of job creation. Policy support has been keeping many of them afloat throughout the pandemic. 
As the deadline on the PBOC's SME support program is fast approaching, small regional banks may bear the brunt of the impact on the financial system.


China's Micro Loan Market: Key Takeaways from the Jan PMI

<ul>
<li>The PBOC has extended the use of its policy tools to support the green loan industry as part of the country's' drive towards carbon neutrality.</li>
<li>China's green loan market is already the largest in the world, if you agree with its definitions and can look past its limitations.</li>
<li>The state of green finance matters to investors, and not just those with explicit ESG mandates. We look at the potential pitfalls in the China.</li>
</ul>


The PBOC has extended the use of its policy tools to support the green loan industry as part of the country's' drive towards carbon neutrality.
China's green loan market is already the largest in the world, if you agree with its definitions and can look past its limitations.
The state of green finance matters to investors, and not just those with explicit ESG mandates. We look at the potential pitfalls in the China.


China's Green Loan Market: Fifty Shades of Green

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Active funds head in to 2023 overweight Industrials and Staples versus underweight Financials and Communication Services</li>
<li>Energy stocks are still only owned by 51% of funds yet captured the largest increase in ownership through 2022.  </li>
<li>China Banks are a key underweight.  Only 11% of funds are positioned ahead of the iShares MSCI China ETF benchmark.  Airlines, Casinos/Gaming and Airfreight/Couriers were the winners in 2022.</li>
</ul>


Active funds head in to 2023 overweight Industrials and Staples versus underweight Financials and Communication Services
Energy stocks are still only owned by 51% of funds yet captured the largest increase in ownership through 2022.  
China Banks are a key underweight.  Only 11% of funds are positioned ahead of the iShares MSCI China ETF benchmark.  Airlines, Casinos/Gaming and Airfreight/Couriers were the winners in 2022.


Active China Funds:  Top-Down Positioning Update, 2023

<ul>
<li>We expect to see a strong start to the week for China financials names, with sentiments buoyed by upbeat consumer spending data over the new year holiday.</li>
<li>Early signs point to relatively loose conditions in the interbank market as trading resumes across the board on Monday. The central bank's easing bias will likely continue.</li>
<li>We see more momentum for the sector ahead of Q4 earnings (brokers &gt; insurers &gt; banks). Stock selection will become more important thereafter.</li>
</ul>


We expect to see a strong start to the week for China financials names, with sentiments buoyed by upbeat consumer spending data over the new year holiday.
Early signs point to relatively loose conditions in the interbank market as trading resumes across the board on Monday. The central bank's easing bias will likely continue.
We see more momentum for the sector ahead of Q4 earnings (brokers &gt; insurers &gt; banks). Stock selection will become more important thereafter.


China Financials Weekly: Jan 30 | A Bubbly Opening

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>Among bigger cap GEM banks, we pick four longs and two shorts as our conviction calls for 2023</li>
<li>Our core buys are Bank Mandiri from Indonesia, Hana Financial from South Korea, China Construction Bank and BanColombia; we also have a special mentions category for Banco Itau and Nubank</li>
<li>Our key sells are ICICI Bank from India and digital bank Jago from Indonesia</li>
</ul>


Among bigger cap GEM banks, we pick four longs and two shorts as our conviction calls for 2023
Our core buys are Bank Mandiri from Indonesia, Hana Financial from South Korea, China Construction Bank and BanColombia; we also have a special mentions category for Banco Itau and Nubank
Our key sells are ICICI Bank from India and digital bank Jago from Indonesia


China

China Construction Bank Corporation provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, fund management, foreign exchange, and other services. China Construction Bank provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

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China Construction Bank (601939 CH)

China's Micro Loan Market: Key Takeaways from the Jan PMI

For the most part, the Jan PMI gauges were in line with investor expectations, although the more pessimistic SME sector may be a cause for concern...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

China's Green Loan Market: Fifty Shades of Green

The PBOC is stepping up its efforts to channel financing to "green" industries. But how green is green? The answer may have implications for...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Active China Funds: Top-Down Positioning Update, 2023

Our analysis of 119 active China strategies reveals the key sector and industry positions among China equity managers for the upcoming year.

Steven Holden

China Financials Weekly: Jan 30 | A Bubbly Opening

We expect a strong start to the week for the China financials space, after a new year holiday that confirms investors' hopes for a speedy recovery...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

GEM Banks; Conviction Calls for 2023

Our core buys are Bank Mandiri, Hana Financial, China Construction Bank and BanColombia; we also have special mention for Banco Itau and Nubank;...

Victor Galliano

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)