Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Granular data at Hang Seng Bank suggests a greater deterioration in both HK and China than is readily visible in headline numbers</li>
<li>The bank's China pre-tax profit is down 70% YoY in 1H24 and its total stage 3 loans are up 84% YoY in 1H24</li>
<li>The bank's credit-impaired loans for Hong Kong CRE rose from HKD1,081m to HKD13,485m, from 2H23 to 1H24</li>
</ul>


Granular data at Hang Seng Bank suggests a greater deterioration in both HK and China than is readily visible in headline numbers
The bank's China pre-tax profit is down 70% YoY in 1H24 and its total stage 3 loans are up 84% YoY in 1H24
The bank's credit-impaired loans for Hong Kong CRE rose from HKD1,081m to HKD13,485m, from 2H23 to 1H24


Hang Seng Bank - China Profit -70% YoY, Stage 3 Loans +84% YoY, HK CRE Impaired Loan +12.5x (Times)

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 13th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Alibaba, CCB, ICBC, Kuaishou Technology, Tencent, Meituan, HKEx.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 13th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Alibaba, CCB, ICBC, Kuaishou Technology, Tencent, Meituan, HKEx.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Sep 13th): $1.5bn Inflows into Baba Post Inclusion

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 6th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Meituan, Hscei Etf, CCB, Zto Express, Xiaomi, AIA.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 6th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Meituan, Hscei Etf, CCB, Zto Express, Xiaomi, AIA.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Meituan, Hscei Etf, CCB, Zto Express, Xiaomi, AIA

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Agricultural Bank Of China / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND was a net buyer this week. Over five days, it was +HK$12.5bn on high gross volume, but all of that net buying was on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> became SOUTHBOUND-eligible on Tuesday, and mainland buyers bought US$2.1bn of BABA shares, more than total SOUTHBOUND net buys.</li>
<li>Gross volumes were highest in months. This was a big week. Even bigger than just BABA. After BABA the story was banks buying. </li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND was a net buyer this week. Over five days, it was +HK$12.5bn on high gross volume, but all of that net buying was on Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK). 

Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) became SOUTHBOUND-eligible on Tuesday, and mainland buyers bought US$2.1bn of BABA shares, more than total SOUTHBOUND net buys.
Gross volumes were highest in months. This was a big week. Even bigger than just BABA. After BABA the story was banks buying. 


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 13 Sep 2024); Weak Data, Weak Markets, but BABA and Banks!

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

China Construction Bank H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this China banks screen, we focus on the credit quality headwinds going forward and which are the better positioned banks to confront the challenge</li>
<li>China bank shares’ PBV ratios have eroded over time, due to low growth and credit quality concerns; yet through our analysis of these bank, we see selective contrarian positive opportunities</li>
<li>CCB is a core GEM bank buy for its deeply discounted valuations and strong balance sheet; Ping An Bank is the deep value contrarian pick; Minsheng is our fundamental sell</li>
</ul>


In this China banks screen, we focus on the credit quality headwinds going forward and which are the better positioned banks to confront the challenge
China bank shares’ PBV ratios have eroded over time, due to low growth and credit quality concerns; yet through our analysis of these bank, we see selective contrarian positive opportunities
CCB is a core GEM bank buy for its deeply discounted valuations and strong balance sheet; Ping An Bank is the deep value contrarian pick; Minsheng is our fundamental sell


China Banks; Challenged on Credit Quality Trends, with Selective Opportunities to Be Found

China

China Construction Bank Corporation provides a comprehensive range of commercial banking products and services to individuals and corporate customers. The Bank's business consists of three principal business segments: corporate banking, personal banking, and treasury operations. China Construction Bank also services infrastructure loans, residential mortgage, and bank cards.

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China Construction Bank H (939 HK)

Hang Seng Bank - China Profit -70% YoY, Stage 3 Loans +84% YoY, HK CRE Impaired Loan +12.5x (Times)

Granular data for Hang Seng Bank provides a good window of underlying credit metrics in both Hong Kong and China, which may not be well visible in...

Daniel Tabbush

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Sep 13th): $1.5bn Inflows into Baba Post Inclusion

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Alibaba, CCB, ICBC, Kuaishou Technology, Tencent,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Short Interest Weekly: Meituan, Hscei Etf, CCB, Zto Express, Xiaomi, AIA

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 6th and highlight short interest changes in Meituan, Hscei Etf, CCB,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 13 Sep 2024); Weak Data, Weak Markets, but BABA and Banks!

The biggest week for SOUTHBOUND gross volumes in many months. It would have been the biggest week even without the launch of Alibaba Southbound...

Travis Lundy

China Banks; Challenged on Credit Quality Trends, with Selective Opportunities to Be Found

Chinese banks' credit quality hurdles create opportunities; CCB is a core bank buy for its discounted valuations and strong balance sheet; Ping An...

Victor Galliano

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)