Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Growth trends at four listed Chinese airports YTD 2025 showed surprising differences</li>
<li>The fastest-growing airports were also the worst performing stocks in the group in 2025</li>
<li>Shares of Guangzhou's and Shanghai's airports also lagged those of "hometown" airlines</li>
</ul>


Growth trends at four listed Chinese airports YTD 2025 showed surprising differences
The fastest-growing airports were also the worst performing stocks in the group in 2025
Shares of Guangzhou's and Shanghai's airports also lagged those of "hometown" airlines


Chinese Airports | Surprising YTD 2025 Growth Trends | Pair Long Airports Vs Short Airlines?

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>Excluding an outlier, our coverage universe is expected to witness a 56.6% YoY earnings growth in 4Q25, rapidly accelerating from the previous quarter.</li>
<li>Stocks with the best growth are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinjiang-goldwind-science-technology-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10112:1" rel="noopener">Xinjiang Goldwind (2208 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sany-heavy-equipment-intl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11104:1" rel="noopener">Sany Heavy Equip. (631 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfang-electric-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1251:1" rel="noopener">Dongfang Electric (1072 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36229:1" rel="noopener">CTG Duty Free (1880 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-energy-tran-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:646:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Energy (1138 HK)</a>.. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-capital-corporation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1071:1" rel="noopener">CICC (3908 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-national-building-ma-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:184:1" rel="noopener">CNBM (3323 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-electric-group-company-limited-d542164d-4d5a-4ce0-b33e-5fe6bc34722c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8777:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Electric (2727 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinotrans-limited-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1321:1" rel="noopener">Sinotrans (598 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anjoy-foods-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44280:1" rel="noopener">Anjoy Foods (2648 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-ports-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:360:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Ports (1199 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home (6690 HK)</a> may upgrade. </li>
</ul>


Excluding an outlier, our coverage universe is expected to witness a 56.6% YoY earnings growth in 4Q25, rapidly accelerating from the previous quarter.
Stocks with the best growth are Xinjiang Goldwind (2208 HK), Sany Heavy Equip. (631 HK), Dongfang Electric (1072 HK), CTG Duty Free (1880 HK), and Cosco Shipping Energy (1138 HK).. 

CICC (3908 HK), CNBM (3323 HK), Shanghai Electric (2727 HK), Sinotrans (598 HK), Anjoy Foods (2648 HK), Cosco Shipping Ports (1199 HK), and Haier Smart Home (6690 HK) may upgrade. 


China & HK Strategy: Stock Implications for 4Q25

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>August air activity largely matched July's improved pace of growth (versus weak Q2)</li>
<li>The improvement in domestic activity has been more dramatic than in outbound </li>
<li>Effectively, high fuel costs appear to be keeping travelers closer to home here in Q3</li>
</ul>


August air activity largely matched July's improved pace of growth (versus weak Q2)
The improvement in domestic activity has been more dramatic than in outbound 
Effectively, high fuel costs appear to be keeping travelers closer to home here in Q3


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | August Traffic Resilient, Especially Domestic Air Activity

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 195 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 85.5% as of Sep 25th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 0.5ppt week-on-week, led by communication services, real estate, materials and offset by industrials.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Innocare Pharma, Vgt, ABC, Yofc.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 195 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 85.5% as of Sep 25th.
The average A-H premium changed by 0.5ppt week-on-week, led by communication services, real estate, materials and offset by industrials.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Innocare Pharma, Vgt, ABC, Yofc.


A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 25th): Innocare Pharma, Vgt, ABC, Yofc

<ul>
<li>The top ten highest-yielding stocks under our coverage have an average yield of 7.4% for FY25F and 7.2% for FY26F, attractive amid the declining interest rate environment.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinotrans-limited-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1321:1" rel="noopener">Sinotrans (598 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anhui-expressway-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5236:1" rel="noopener">Anhui Expressway Co Ltd H (995 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-railway-signal-communication-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:613:1" rel="noopener">China Railway Signal &amp; Communication (3969 HK)</a> are better quality ones with 6-7% average yield.</li>
<li>Chinese airlines are low on yields given they are still loss-making, but they have a good earnings rebound in 2H25, making them suitable for aggressive investors.</li>
</ul>


The top ten highest-yielding stocks under our coverage have an average yield of 7.4% for FY25F and 7.2% for FY26F, attractive amid the declining interest rate environment.

Sinotrans (598 HK), Anhui Expressway Co Ltd H (995 HK), and China Railway Signal &amp; Communication (3969 HK) are better quality ones with 6-7% average yield.
Chinese airlines are low on yields given they are still loss-making, but they have a good earnings rebound in 2H25, making them suitable for aggressive investors.


China & HK Strategy: The High-Yield Playbook

China

China Eastern Airlines is a major Chinese airline providing domestic, regional, and international passenger flight services, along with air cargo, logistics, and ancillary services such as aircraft maintenance and in-flight catering. Headquartered in Shanghai, China, it was founded in 1988.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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China Eastern Airlines (670 HK)

Chinese Airports | Surprising YTD 2025 Growth Trends | Pair Long Airports Vs Short Airlines?

Surprising growth trends among four listed Chinese airports in 2025 and striking differences in recent share performance suggest a pair trade: Long...

Tracking Traffic

China & HK Strategy: Stock Implications for 4Q25

Expect a 56.6% YoY profit growth in 4Q25 for our coverage universe, with top growth stocks being Xinjiang Goldwind, Sany Heavy Equipment, Dongfang...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | August Traffic Resilient, Especially Domestic Air Activity

August air traffic figures show a decent Y/Y recovery that mirrors what we saw in July, especially for domestic travel. We believe demand could...

Tracking Traffic

A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 25th): Innocare Pharma, Vgt, ABC, Yofc

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Innocare Pharma, Victory Giant Technology, ABC, Yofc.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China & HK Strategy: The High-Yield Playbook

With the increase in volatility in the near term due to the uncertainties from potentially higher tariffs and the Trump-Xi meeting in APEC, there...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Chinese Airports | Surprising YTD 2025 Growth Trends | Pair Long Airports Vs Short Airlines?

Surprising growth trends among four listed Chinese airports in 2025 and striking differences in recent share performance suggest a pair trade: Long...

Tracking Traffic

China & HK Strategy: Stock Implications for 4Q25

​Expect a 56.6% YoY profit growth in 4Q25 for our coverage universe, with top growth stocks being Xinjiang Goldwind, Sany Heavy Equipment, Dongfang...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | August Traffic Resilient, Especially Domestic Air Activity

August air traffic figures show a decent Y/Y recovery that mirrors what we saw in July, especially for domestic travel. We believe demand could...

Tracking Traffic

A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 25th): Innocare Pharma, Vgt, ABC, Yofc

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Innocare Pharma, Victory Giant Technology, ABC, Yofc.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China & HK Strategy: The High-Yield Playbook

With the increase in volatility in the near term due to the uncertainties from potentially higher tariffs and the Trump-Xi meeting in APEC, there...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Expect a 56.6% YoY profit growth in 4Q25 for our coverage universe, with top growth stocks being Xinjiang Goldwind, Sany Heavy Equipment, Dongfang...