Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Airline &amp; airport air cargo data shows moderating demand, Asia &gt; N America</li>
<li>No signs of supply tightness in the system; in fact, reported yields are <em>falling</em>
</li>
<li>Most indicators show that demand is mediocre, space plentiful, pricing weak</li>
</ul>


Airline &amp; airport air cargo data shows moderating demand, Asia &gt; N America
No signs of supply tightness in the system; in fact, reported yields are falling

Most indicators show that demand is mediocre, space plentiful, pricing weak


Monthly Air Cargo Tracker | May-July Data Shows Soft Demand, Ample Capacity, Lower Yields

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Led by Accommodation activity, Q225 net revenue growth was a solid +16% Y/Y </li>
<li>Some progress on OpEx control, but core margins declined <em>again</em> in Q225</li>
<li>Even with big buyback, is it worth US$75/ADS? We think fair value near US$60</li>
</ul>


Led by Accommodation activity, Q225 net revenue growth was a solid +16% Y/Y 
Some progress on OpEx control, but core margins declined again in Q225
Even with big buyback, is it worth US$75/ADS? We think fair value near US$60


Trip.com Q225 Results | Big Buyback a Surprise | But Margins Still Under Pressure | Fair Value US$60

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>1H25 earnings of our coverage are generally weaker than expected, with a 5.9% growth; for 2H25, the consensus forecasts point to a further slowdown to 4%. </li>
<li>The Chinese airlines, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-electric-group-company-limited-d542164d-4d5a-4ce0-b33e-5fe6bc34722c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8777:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Electric Group (2727 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sany-heavy-equipment-intl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11104:1" rel="noopener">Sany Heavy Equipment (631 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-travel-international-investment-hong-kong" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3879:1" rel="noopener">China Travel International Investment (308 HK)</a> exhibit the best YoY growth in 2H25. </li>
<li>Container shipping and trade-related companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-cosco-holdings-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:286:1" rel="noopener">COSCO Shipping Holdings (1919 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orient-overseas-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:801:1" rel="noopener">Orient Overseas International (316 HK)</a> are expected to see earnings plunge in 2H25.</li>
</ul>


1H25 earnings of our coverage are generally weaker than expected, with a 5.9% growth; for 2H25, the consensus forecasts point to a further slowdown to 4%. 
The Chinese airlines, Shanghai Electric Group (2727 HK), Sany Heavy Equipment (631 HK), and China Travel International Investment (308 HK) exhibit the best YoY growth in 2H25. 
Container shipping and trade-related companies like COSCO Shipping Holdings (1919 HK), and Orient Overseas International (316 HK) are expected to see earnings plunge in 2H25.


China Strategy: 1H25 Roundup and Implications for 2H25

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Aug 22nd based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), China Hongqiao (1378 HK), Hang Seng Bank (11 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), China Hongqiao (1378 HK), Hang Seng Bank (11 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Aug 22nd based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), China Hongqiao (1378 HK), Hang Seng Bank (11 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), China Hongqiao (1378 HK), Hang Seng Bank (11 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Aug 22nd): Tencent, China Hongqiao, Hang Seng Bank

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Aug 15th based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Hang Seng Bank, Mgm China, Yum China.</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Hang Seng Bank (11 HK), Yum China (9987 HK), Vitasoy (345 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Aug 15th based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Hang Seng Bank, Mgm China, Yum China.
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Hang Seng Bank (11 HK), Yum China (9987 HK), Vitasoy (345 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Aug 15th): Hang Seng Bank, Mgm China, Yum China

China

China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates in the civil aviation industry. It offers passenger, cargo, mail delivery, ground, cargo handling, and other extended transportation services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

China Eastern Airlines (670 HK)

Monthly Air Cargo Tracker | May-July Data Shows Soft Demand, Ample Capacity, Lower Yields

A look at July yields, load factors, and tonnage growth in July suggests an Asian air cargo market that has plenty of supply to meet moderating...

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com Q225 Results | Big Buyback a Surprise | But Margins Still Under Pressure | Fair Value US$60

Trip.com announced a big share buyback last week, but its Q225 core results were unimpressive. Given modest growth expectations, we put fair value...

Tracking Traffic

China Strategy: 1H25 Roundup and Implications for 2H25

1H25 earnings weaker than expected with 5.9% growth; 2H25 forecasts show further slowdown to 4%. Chinese airlines and trade-related companies...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Aug 22nd): Tencent, China Hongqiao, Hang Seng Bank

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Tencent (700 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Aug 15th): Hang Seng Bank, Mgm China, Yum China

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Hang Seng Bank (11...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Monthly Air Cargo Tracker | May-July Data Shows Soft Demand, Ample Capacity, Lower Yields

A look at July yields, load factors, and tonnage growth in July suggests an Asian air cargo market that has plenty of supply to meet moderating...

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com Q225 Results | Big Buyback a Surprise | But Margins Still Under Pressure | Fair Value US$60

Trip.com announced a big share buyback last week, but its Q225 core results were unimpressive. Given modest growth expectations, we put fair value...

Tracking Traffic

China Strategy: 1H25 Roundup and Implications for 2H25

​1H25 earnings weaker than expected with 5.9% growth; 2H25 forecasts show further slowdown to 4%. Chinese airlines and trade-related companies...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Aug 22nd): Tencent, China Hongqiao, Hang Seng Bank

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Tencent (700 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Aug 15th): Hang Seng Bank, Mgm China, Yum China

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Hang Seng Bank (11...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

1H25 earnings weaker than expected with 5.9% growth; 2H25 forecasts show further slowdown to 4%. Chinese airlines and trade-related companies...