HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>As Rmb moved from appreciation in 1Q23 to depreciation in 2Q23, there is a total change in the beneficiaries discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-strategy-it-is-the-foreign-exchange-impact-stupid" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:99729" rel="noopener">China Strategy: It Is the Foreign Exchange Impact, Stupid!</a> </li>
<li>The new beneficiaries are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimc-enric-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:47:1" rel="noopener">CIMC Enric Holdings (3899 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-energy-engineering-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21017:1" rel="noopener">China Energy Engineering (3996 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-communications-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:265:1" rel="noopener">China Communications Construction (1800 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinotrans-limited-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1321:1" rel="noopener">Sinotrans (598 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avichina-industry-technology-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16315:1" rel="noopener">AviChina Industry &amp; Technology H (2357 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimc-enric-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:47:1" rel="noopener">CIMC Enric Holdings (3899 HK)</a> generated 20.2% of FY22 earnings from exchange gain as Rmb depreciated. Revenue from outside China rose 10% in 1H23 and accounted for 54.4% of total.  </li>
</ul>


As Rmb moved from appreciation in 1Q23 to depreciation in 2Q23, there is a total change in the beneficiaries discussed in China Strategy: It Is the Foreign Exchange Impact, Stupid! 
The new beneficiaries are CIMC Enric Holdings (3899 HK), China Energy Engineering (3996 HK), China Communications Construction (1800 HK), Sinotrans (598 HK) and AviChina Industry &amp; Technology H (2357 HK). 

CIMC Enric Holdings (3899 HK) generated 20.2% of FY22 earnings from exchange gain as Rmb depreciated. Revenue from outside China rose 10% in 1H23 and accounted for 54.4% of total.  


China Strategy: The RMB Reversal Is Just Too Fast!

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Hs underperformed As on average by 1.88% within the liquid AH pair universe. Defensive Hs outperform As. Others not.</li>
<li>Nine new recos last week. The one labelled saw H underperform A by 2%. Ouch. 15+ new trades this week.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Southbound Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Pairs Monitor</a> are both there - free - for all SK readers.</li>
</ul>


Hs underperformed As on average by 1.88% within the liquid AH pair universe. Defensive Hs outperform As. Others not.
Nine new recos last week. The one labelled saw H underperform A by 2%. Ouch. 15+ new trades this week.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The Southbound Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there - free - for all SK readers.


A/H Premium Tracker (Week to 21 Nov 2025):  Hs Sharply Underperform As. Year-End Unwinding?

Agricultural Bank Of China / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Hs outperformed As on average, slightly, within the AH pair universe. Last week's reco gained vs the A on the week, but not Monday close to Friday. Stay long.</li>
<li>There are nine new recos this week after a bunch of trades were closed last week.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Southbound Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Pairs Monitor</a> are both there - free - for all SK readers.</li>
</ul>


Hs outperformed As on average, slightly, within the AH pair universe. Last week's reco gained vs the A on the week, but not Monday close to Friday. Stay long.
There are nine new recos this week after a bunch of trades were closed last week.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The Southbound Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there - free - for all SK readers.


A/H Premium Tracker (Week to 14 Nov 2025):  Beautiful Skew Still Behaving Badly, SOE Pair Hs Better

<ul>
<li>Excluding an outlier, our coverage universe is expected to witness a 56.6% YoY earnings growth in 4Q25, rapidly accelerating from the previous quarter.</li>
<li>Stocks with the best growth are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinjiang-goldwind-science-technology-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10112:1" rel="noopener">Xinjiang Goldwind (2208 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sany-heavy-equipment-intl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11104:1" rel="noopener">Sany Heavy Equip. (631 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfang-electric-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1251:1" rel="noopener">Dongfang Electric (1072 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36229:1" rel="noopener">CTG Duty Free (1880 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-energy-tran-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:646:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Energy (1138 HK)</a>.. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-capital-corporation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1071:1" rel="noopener">CICC (3908 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-national-building-ma-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:184:1" rel="noopener">CNBM (3323 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-electric-group-company-limited-d542164d-4d5a-4ce0-b33e-5fe6bc34722c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8777:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Electric (2727 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinotrans-limited-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1321:1" rel="noopener">Sinotrans (598 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anjoy-foods-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44280:1" rel="noopener">Anjoy Foods (2648 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-ports-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:360:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Ports (1199 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home (6690 HK)</a> may upgrade. </li>
</ul>


Excluding an outlier, our coverage universe is expected to witness a 56.6% YoY earnings growth in 4Q25, rapidly accelerating from the previous quarter.
Stocks with the best growth are Xinjiang Goldwind (2208 HK), Sany Heavy Equip. (631 HK), Dongfang Electric (1072 HK), CTG Duty Free (1880 HK), and Cosco Shipping Energy (1138 HK).. 

CICC (3908 HK), CNBM (3323 HK), Shanghai Electric (2727 HK), Sinotrans (598 HK), Anjoy Foods (2648 HK), Cosco Shipping Ports (1199 HK), and Haier Smart Home (6690 HK) may upgrade. 


China & HK Strategy: Stock Implications for 4Q25

<ul>
<li>For 1H25, the companies under our coverage will report a 16.8% earnings growth. Breaking down by quarter, 2Q25 growth will accelerate to 30.8%, from 14.1% in 1Q25. </li>
<li>The best growth rates are at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-national-building-ma-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:184:1" rel="noopener">China National Building Material (3323 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-capital-corporation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1071:1" rel="noopener">CICC (3908 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-capital-international-airport-bcia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10626:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Capital Intl Airport (694 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel (780 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sitc-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15301:1" rel="noopener">SITC Intl (1308 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>The worst ones are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-travel-international-investment-hong-kong" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3879:1" rel="noopener">China Travel Intl (308 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-energy-tran-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:646:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Energy Transp (1138 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-southern-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1078:1" rel="noopener">China Southern Airlines (1055 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36229:1" rel="noopener">CTG Duty Free (1880 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-basin-shipping-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:929:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Basin (2343 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


For 1H25, the companies under our coverage will report a 16.8% earnings growth. Breaking down by quarter, 2Q25 growth will accelerate to 30.8%, from 14.1% in 1Q25. 
The best growth rates are at China National Building Material (3323 HK), CICC (3908 HK), Beijing Capital Intl Airport (694 HK), Tongcheng Travel (780 HK), and SITC Intl (1308 HK). 
The worst ones are China Travel Intl (308 HK), Cosco Shipping Energy Transp (1138 HK), China Southern Airlines (1055 HK), CTG Duty Free (1880 HK), and Pacific Basin (2343 HK). 


China & HK Strategy: 1H25 Preview - Where Are the Upside and Downside Surprises?

Hong Kong

China Energy Engineering Group Co. Ltd. (CEEC) provides infrastructure construction and investment for hydroelectrical works. The Company also offers power engineering, electric power equipment, technology, and human resources. CEEC provides its services in China and internationally.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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China Energy Engineering (3996 HK)

China Strategy: The RMB Reversal Is Just Too Fast!

Trump's presidency is expected to escalate the trade war and increase the possibility of a higher USD rate. That said, the Rmb will be under...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A/H Premium Tracker (Week to 21 Nov 2025): Hs Sharply Underperform As. Year-End Unwinding?

Hs underperformed As in the pairs reasonably sharply. Defensive stocks saw Hs outperform somewhat. Looks like the tide is turning here. Lots of new...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (Week to 14 Nov 2025): Beautiful Skew Still Behaving Badly, SOE Pair Hs Better

Hs outperformed As slightly as HK shares outperformed mainland shares. Sectors were mixed. There was no beautiful skew as the widest spreads...

Travis Lundy

China & HK Strategy: Stock Implications for 4Q25

Expect a 56.6% YoY profit growth in 4Q25 for our coverage universe, with top growth stocks being Xinjiang Goldwind, Sany Heavy Equipment, Dongfang...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China & HK Strategy: 1H25 Preview - Where Are the Upside and Downside Surprises?

The companies under our coverage are expected to report 16.8% earnings growth for 1H25, with 2Q25 accelerating to 30.8%. Top performers include...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Strategy: The RMB Reversal Is Just Too Fast!

Trump's presidency is expected to escalate the trade war and increase the possibility of a higher USD rate. That said, the Rmb will be under...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A/H Premium Tracker (Week to 21 Nov 2025): Hs Sharply Underperform As. Year-End Unwinding?

Hs underperformed As in the pairs reasonably sharply. Defensive stocks saw Hs outperform somewhat. Looks like the tide is turning here. Lots of new...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (Week to 14 Nov 2025): Beautiful Skew Still Behaving Badly, SOE Pair Hs Better

Hs outperformed As slightly as HK shares outperformed mainland shares. Sectors were mixed. There was no beautiful skew as the widest spreads...

Travis Lundy

China & HK Strategy: Stock Implications for 4Q25

​Expect a 56.6% YoY profit growth in 4Q25 for our coverage universe, with top growth stocks being Xinjiang Goldwind, Sany Heavy Equipment, Dongfang...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China & HK Strategy: 1H25 Preview - Where Are the Upside and Downside Surprises?

The companies under our coverage are expected to report 16.8% earnings growth for 1H25, with 2Q25 accelerating to 30.8%. Top performers include...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Expect a 56.6% YoY profit growth in 4Q25 for our coverage universe, with top growth stocks being Xinjiang Goldwind, Sany Heavy Equipment, Dongfang...