HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

China Everbright Environment / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>We think <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-everbright-environment-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15946:1" rel="noopener">China Everbright Environment (257 HK)</a> (CEE) is the best-performing environment company within the China Everbright Group, as evidenced by the 38.8% YoY growth in 1H21 earnings (ex-consolidated subsidiaries <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-everbright-water-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31446:1" rel="noopener">China Everbright Water (1857 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-everbright-greentech-0377b31c-5401-466f-987e-9a176b05fb52" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24085:1" rel="noopener">China Everbright Greentech (1257 HK)</a>). Management's indication in the post-1H21 call that operating cash flow rose 77% YoY in the period is also a good sign.</p><p>Excellent new project momentum and secured project pipeline should drive CEE's earnings in the next two years. The trend of increase in operation service revenue is also positive as this should support the growth in recurrent income and operating cash flow. We continue to see encouraging outlook for its waste-to-energy business, and with 21 projects under construction, this segment will underpin its profit outlook.  In our view, CEE's valuations of 4.1x PER and 0.61x P/B for FY21 are very appealing.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-environment-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2832:1" rel="noopener"></a></p>

We think China Everbright Environment (257 HK) (CEE) is the best-performing environment company within the China Everbright Group, as evidenced by the 38.8% YoY growth in 1H21 earnings (ex-consolidated subsidiaries China Everbright Water (1857 HK) and China Everbright Greentech (1257 HK)). Management's indication in the post-1H21 call that operating cash flow rose 77% YoY in the period is also a good sign.Excellent new project momentum and secured project pipeline should drive CEE's earnings in the next two years. The trend of increase in operation service revenue is also positive as this should support the growth in recurrent income and operating cash flow. We continue to see encouraging outlook for its waste-to-energy business, and with 21 projects under construction, this segment will underpin its profit outlook.  In our view, CEE's valuations of 4.1x PER and 0.61x P/B for FY21 are very appealing.  

China Everbright Environment (257 HK): The Most Impressive of All

<ul>
<li>Despite a 3.8% decline in FY23 net profit, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-everbright-environment-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15946:1" rel="noopener">China Everbright Environment (257 HK)</a>'s profitability has still outperformed its peers by significant magnitudes. </li>
<li>Positive notes in the result are an increase in operation service revenue proportion, expansion in EBITDA margin, improvement in financial position, and addition of new projects.</li>
<li>It is easy for CEE to achieve the market expectation of a 9.8% growth in FY24. Yet, it just trade on 3.6x PER, 8.5% yield, and 0.34x P/B. </li>
</ul>


Despite a 3.8% decline in FY23 net profit, China Everbright Environment (257 HK)'s profitability has still outperformed its peers by significant magnitudes. 
Positive notes in the result are an increase in operation service revenue proportion, expansion in EBITDA margin, improvement in financial position, and addition of new projects.
It is easy for CEE to achieve the market expectation of a 9.8% growth in FY24. Yet, it just trade on 3.6x PER, 8.5% yield, and 0.34x P/B. 


China Everbright Environment (257 HK): Being Penalised Too Much

<ul>
<li>Plunge in net profit, high gearing and slowdown in new projects are market concerns, but should have well reflected in its share price. Its 3.6x PER is just too cheap. </li>
<li>FY23 will see profit recovery, backed by decent project pipeline and lack of one-offs like impairment and exchange losses. Consensus forecast of 15% profit growth is too conservative.</li>
<li>Cash flow will improve over the next two years as collection of national subsidies accelerates, capex moderates and contribution from operating projects increases. </li>
</ul>


Plunge in net profit, high gearing and slowdown in new projects are market concerns, but should have well reflected in its share price. Its 3.6x PER is just too cheap. 
FY23 will see profit recovery, backed by decent project pipeline and lack of one-offs like impairment and exchange losses. Consensus forecast of 15% profit growth is too conservative.
Cash flow will improve over the next two years as collection of national subsidies accelerates, capex moderates and contribution from operating projects increases. 


China Everbright Environment (257 HK): The Dust Should Have Settled

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 35 adds and 28 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the March rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 527.</li>
<li>We expect 29 of the 35 inclusions to the HSCI will be added to Stock Connect, while 20 of the 28 HSCI deletions will be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.</li>
<li>19 stocks could be deleted from Stock Connect only since their average market cap has dropped below HK$5bn- unless the new threshold of HK$4bn is approved in the next week.</li>
</ul>


There are 35 adds and 28 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the March rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 527.
We expect 29 of the 35 inclusions to the HSCI will be added to Stock Connect, while 20 of the 28 HSCI deletions will be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.
19 stocks could be deleted from Stock Connect only since their average market cap has dropped below HK$5bn- unless the new threshold of HK$4bn is approved in the next week.


HSCI Index Rebalance: 35 Adds, 28 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

Brilliance China Automotive / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We see 44 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 19 potential deletes (on market cap, liquidity and suspension) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.</li>
<li>We expect 37 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 37 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only. </li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 44 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 19 potential deletes (on market cap, liquidity and suspension) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.
We expect 37 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 37 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only. 
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: A Lot of Change

China

China Everbright Greentech Limited focuses on green technology businesses. The Company engages in projects revolving around biomass, hazardous waste treatment, and solar and wind energy.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

China Everbright Greentech (1257 HK)

China Everbright Environment (257 HK): The Most Impressive of All

CEE recorded impressive 1H21 earnings growth, and with higher tariff, solid new project momentum, continued strong pipeline and improving cash...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Everbright Environment (257 HK): Being Penalised Too Much

There are positive messages in FY23 result: an increase in operation service revenue proportion, expansion in EBITDA margin, improvement in...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Everbright Environment (257 HK): The Dust Should Have Settled

FY23 outlook has brightened as it will be supported by healthy project pipeline and lack of one-off items. There is potential for financial...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HSCI Index Rebalance: 35 Adds, 28 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

There are 35 adds & 28 deletes for the HSCI in March leading to 29 adds & 20 deletes for Stock Connect. 19 index constituents could be dropped from...

Brian Freitas

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: A Lot of Change

We forecast 44 adds/19 deletes for the HSCI in March leading to 37 adds/deletes for Southbound Stock Connect. There could be more Connect changes...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)