Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>These past few weeks have been all about China and China is all about real estate.</li>
<li>With that, welcome to this week’s real estate-focused edition of the ‘Watch Series’, where we look for clues on the state of the US parallel in particular.</li>
<li>Our findings in brief: Favorable fixings counter forced selling, Record low affordability discourages buying, Little volume and stalemate in price, Weakening labor market and layoffs remain THE triggers for potential selloff.</li>
</ul>


These past few weeks have been all about China and China is all about real estate.
With that, welcome to this week’s real estate-focused edition of the ‘Watch Series’, where we look for clues on the state of the US parallel in particular.
Our findings in brief: Favorable fixings counter forced selling, Record low affordability discourages buying, Little volume and stalemate in price, Weakening labor market and layoffs remain THE triggers for potential selloff.


Real Estate Watch: Too Early to Call off the Crisis in Western Markets

Financial sector veteran, KT Capital Group

Fern Wang

Financial sector veteran

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Evergrande's filing in itself does not signify a deterioration in its financials; it was already insolvent as of end 2021.</li>
<li>The bankruptcy filing provides the benefits of automatic stay and is a necessary step to validate the Group's offshore restructuring plan. </li>
<li>Evergrande's long term viability still depends on recovery of the China property market. </li>
</ul>


Evergrande's filing in itself does not signify a deterioration in its financials; it was already insolvent as of end 2021.
The bankruptcy filing provides the benefits of automatic stay and is a necessary step to validate the Group's offshore restructuring plan. 
Evergrande's long term viability still depends on recovery of the China property market. 


Why Evergrande’s Bankruptcy Filing Is a Positive Development

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<p>Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.</p>In this Insight:<ol><li><a href='/entities/sino-ocean-group-holding-limited' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Sino-Ocean Group</a></li><li><a href='/entities/adani-ports-special-economic-zone-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone</a></li><li><a href='/entities/road-king-infrastructure-limited' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Road King Infrastructure</a></li><li><a href='/entities/china-jinmao-holdings-group' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>China Jinmao Holdings</a></li><li><a href='/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Geely Auto</a></li></ol>and more...

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:Sino-Ocean GroupAdani Ports & Special Economic ZoneRoad King InfrastructureChina Jinmao HoldingsGeely Autoand more...

<p>Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.</p>In this Insight:<ol><li><a href='/entities/country-garden-holdings-co' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Country Garden Holdings Co</a></li><li><a href='/entities/longfor-properties' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Longfor Properties</a></li><li><a href='/entities/sino-ocean-group-holding-limited' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Sino-Ocean Group</a></li><li><a href='/entities/china-sce-group-holdings-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>China SCE</a></li><li><a href='/entities/sunny-optical-technology-group' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Sunny Optical Technology Group</a></li></ol>and more...

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:Country Garden Holdings CoLongfor PropertiesSino-Ocean GroupChina SCESunny Optical Technology Groupand more...

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; see direct links to sources</li>
</ul>


A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; see direct links to sources


China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 4-10 August 2023

China

China Evergrande Group is an integrated residential property developer. The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates in property development, investment, management, finance, internet, health, culture, and tourism markets.

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Evergrande (3333 HK)

Real Estate Watch: Too Early to Call off the Crisis in Western Markets

These past few weeks have been all about China and China is all about real estate. With that, welcome to this week’s real estate-focused edition...

Steno Research

Why Evergrande’s Bankruptcy Filing Is a Positive Development

Evergrande's bankruptcy petition is a positive development for its long negotiated restructuring plan, providing temporary protection against...

Fern Wang

Weekly Wrap - 18 Aug 2023

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and...

Lucror Analytics

Weekly Wrap - 11 Aug 2023

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and...

Lucror Analytics

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 4-10 August 2023

A weekly curated selection of local Chinese news articles and company announcements - focused on distressed developers.

Robert Ciemniak

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52-week Range

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