Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Greentown China, Sunac China, Fosun International, China Hongqiao</li>
<li>In the US, the ISM services index expanded to 54.1 (53.5 e / 52.1 p). This was driven by an increase in the prices paid and new orders components, while the employment component was stable.</li>
<li>Separately, the November JOLTS job openings rose to 8.10 mn (7.74 mn e / 7.84 mn p). The November trade deficit expanded to USD 78.2 bn (USD 78.3 bn e / USD 73.6 bn revised p).</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Greentown China, Sunac China, Fosun International, China Hongqiao
In the US, the ISM services index expanded to 54.1 (53.5 e / 52.1 p). This was driven by an increase in the prices paid and new orders components, while the employment component was stable.
Separately, the November JOLTS job openings rose to 8.10 mn (7.74 mn e / 7.84 mn p). The November trade deficit expanded to USD 78.2 bn (USD 78.3 bn e / USD 73.6 bn revised p).


HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>2024 marks another year that our "Buy the worst" strategy underperformed the HSI. The strategy yielded -1.7% YTD, against HSI's +17.9%. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> is the only winner.</li>
<li>For 2025, the strategy will switch to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/budweiser-brewing-co-apac-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28077:1" rel="noopener">Budweiser Brewing (1876 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung Props (101 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23679:1" rel="noopener">Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cspc-pharmaceutical-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:229:1" rel="noopener">CSPC Pharmaceutical (1093 HK)</a>.  </li>
<li>The top five HSI winners YTD 2024 have generated an average gain of 92.7%, outperforming the HSI massively. Given their current high valuations, this is unlikely to repeat in 2025.</li>
</ul>


2024 marks another year that our "Buy the worst" strategy underperformed the HSI. The strategy yielded -1.7% YTD, against HSI's +17.9%. Meituan (3690 HK) is the only winner.
For 2025, the strategy will switch to Budweiser Brewing (1876 HK), Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK), Hang Lung Props (101 HK), Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK), and CSPC Pharmaceutical (1093 HK).  
The top five HSI winners YTD 2024 have generated an average gain of 92.7%, outperforming the HSI massively. Given their current high valuations, this is unlikely to repeat in 2025.


"Buy the Worst" HSI Strategy: Another Disappointing Year in 2024, Let's See 2025

Trung Nguyen

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Vedanta Resources, China Hongqiao, Gajah Tunggal</li>
<li>In the US, November advance retail sales came in above estimates at 0.7% m-o-m (0.6% e / 0.5% revised p), bolstered by a jump in car purchases and solid online shopping during Black Friday.</li>
<li>That said, retail sales excluding auto slowed to 0.2% m-o-m (0.4% e / 0.2% revised p). Separately, November industrial production unexpectedly fell 0.1% m-o-m (0.3% e / -0.4% p), the third straight month of decline, owing to weaker utilities and mining output.</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Vedanta Resources, China Hongqiao, Gajah Tunggal
In the US, November advance retail sales came in above estimates at 0.7% m-o-m (0.6% e / 0.5% revised p), bolstered by a jump in car purchases and solid online shopping during Black Friday.
That said, retail sales excluding auto slowed to 0.2% m-o-m (0.4% e / 0.2% revised p). Separately, November industrial production unexpectedly fell 0.1% m-o-m (0.3% e / -0.4% p), the third straight month of decline, owing to weaker utilities and mining output.


Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the final rankings for the HSCEI potential ADDs and potential DELs for the index rebal event in March 2025.</li>
<li>At present, we see one change based on the 13th December 2024 data but the rankings can change until 31st December 2024.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.
In this insight, we take a look at the final rankings for the HSCEI potential ADDs and potential DELs for the index rebal event in March 2025.
At present, we see one change based on the 13th December 2024 data but the rankings can change until 31st December 2024.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Mar 25: One Change Likely but More Names Lurking Close to the Border

Global Head of Research & Head of Europe, Lucror Analytics

Felix Fischer

Global Head of Research & Head of Europe

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.
In this Insight:
<ol>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SK Hynix</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-transmission-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Adani Transmission</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-green-energy-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Adani Green Energy</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cifi-holdings-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CIFI Holdings</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Rakuten</a></li>
</ol>
and more...

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.
In this Insight:

SK Hynix
Adani Transmission
Adani Green Energy
CIFI Holdings
Rakuten

and more...

China

China Hongqiao Group Ltd. manufactures aluminum products. The Company's aluminum products consist of molten aluminum alloy, aluminum alloy ingots and aluminum busbars.

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China Hongqiao (1378 HK)

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Greentown China, Sunac China, Fosun...

Lucror Analytics

"Buy the Worst" HSI Strategy: Another Disappointing Year in 2024, Let's See 2025

The 2024 "Buy the worst" strategy has underperformed HSI, and the new picks for 2025 are Budweiser APAC, Chow Tai Fook, Hang Lung Properties, Wuxi...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Vedanta Resources, China Hongqiao, Gajah Tunggal

Lucror Analytics

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Mar 25: One Change Likely but More Names Lurking Close to the Border

The Expected ADD China Resources Power (836 HK) could see 0.9x ADV index buying and the Expected DEL Li Ning (2331 HK) could see 0.6x ADV of index...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Weekly Wrap - 25 Oct 2024

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and...

Lucror Analytics

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Greentown China, Sunac China, Fosun...

Lucror Analytics

"Buy the Worst" HSI Strategy: Another Disappointing Year in 2024, Let's See 2025

​The 2024 "Buy the worst" strategy has underperformed HSI, and the new picks for 2025 are Budweiser APAC, Chow Tai Fook, Hang Lung Properties, Wuxi...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Vedanta Resources, China Hongqiao, Gajah Tunggal

Lucror Analytics

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Mar 25: One Change Likely but More Names Lurking Close to the Border

The Expected ADD China Resources Power (836 HK) could see 0.9x ADV index buying and the Expected DEL Li Ning (2331 HK) could see 0.6x ADV of index...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Weekly Wrap - 25 Oct 2024

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and...

Lucror Analytics

The 2024 "Buy the worst" strategy has underperformed HSI, and the new picks for 2025 are Budweiser APAC, Chow Tai Fook, Hang Lung Properties, Wuxi...