HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

China International Capital Corporation / Equity Bottom-Up

China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-capital-corp-ltd-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1071:1" rel="noopener">CICC (3908 HK)</a> has received CSRC approval for its merger with <a target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cinda Securities (601059 CH)</a> and <a target="_blank" rel="noopener">Dongxing Securities (601198 CH)</a>, but its share price has fallen. </li>
<li>Concerns about EPS dilution are valid, as CDS' and DXS' 1H26 earnings are weaker than CICC's. However, amid increased industry consolidation, the merger is strategically important.</li>
<li>CICC now sits at 0.57x 12-month forward P/B, just the average since 2021. We expect the merger to enhance book value, and H-shareholders will benefit more. </li>
</ul>



CICC (3908 HK) has received CSRC approval for its merger with Cinda Securities (601059 CH) and Dongxing Securities (601198 CH), but its share price has fallen. 
Concerns about EPS dilution are valid, as CDS' and DXS' 1H26 earnings are weaker than CICC's. However, amid increased industry consolidation, the merger is strategically important.
CICC now sits at 0.57x 12-month forward P/B, just the average since 2021. We expect the merger to enhance book value, and H-shareholders will benefit more. 


CICC (3908 HK): CSRC's Approval of the Merger

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 196 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 81.4% as of Aug 28th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 1.6ppt week-on-week, led by consumer discretionary, energy, real estate and offset by utilities, financials.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Gwmotor, China Mobile, Remegen, Fuyao Glass, Minsheng Bank.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 196 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 81.4% as of Aug 28th.
The average A-H premium changed by 1.6ppt week-on-week, led by consumer discretionary, energy, real estate and offset by utilities, financials.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Gwmotor, China Mobile, Remegen, Fuyao Glass, Minsheng Bank.


A-H Premium Weekly (Aug 28th): Gwmotor, China Mobile, Remegen, Fuyao Glass, Minsheng Bank

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Loans / In Depth: Chinese consumers deluged with cheap loans</li><li>APEC /Analysis: Xi-Biden APEC meeting may help stabilize ties, won’t change fundamentals</li><li>Credit /: Government borrowings boosted China’s credit growth in October</li></ul>

Loans / In Depth: Chinese consumers deluged with cheap loansAPEC /Analysis: Xi-Biden APEC meeting may help stabilize ties, won’t change fundamentalsCredit /: Government borrowings boosted China’s credit growth in October

CX Daily: Chinese Consumers Deluged With Cheap Loans 

<ul><li>India / Cover Story: Modi steers India’s relationship with Russia through storm of Ukraine war</li><li>CICC /: Top Chinese investment bank CICC picks new boss</li><li>Corruption /: Ex-executive of Shanghai bourse accused of bribery and fake divorce</li></ul>

India / Cover Story: Modi steers India’s relationship with Russia through storm of Ukraine warCICC /: Top Chinese investment bank CICC picks new bossCorruption /: Ex-executive of Shanghai bourse accused of bribery and fake divorce

CX Daily: Modi Steers India’s Relationship With Russia Through Storm of Ukraine War 

Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We welcome the regulators' formalization of financial asset classifications. This will gradually remove regulatory arbitrage and pave the way for further bank reintermediation.</li>
<li>The new rules will likely have limited impacts on bond holdings that have active secondary markets, but illiquid debt investment plans will come under more intense regulatory and auditor scrutiny.</li>
<li>We see an impact of 10-15bp on the listed banks' reported NPL ratios. That said, a handful of banks may be at risk of capital shortages if the environment worsens. </li>
</ul>


We welcome the regulators' formalization of financial asset classifications. This will gradually remove regulatory arbitrage and pave the way for further bank reintermediation.
The new rules will likely have limited impacts on bond holdings that have active secondary markets, but illiquid debt investment plans will come under more intense regulatory and auditor scrutiny.
We see an impact of 10-15bp on the listed banks' reported NPL ratios. That said, a handful of banks may be at risk of capital shortages if the environment worsens. 


Chinese Banks: New Asset Classification Rules | You Can Run but You Can't Hide

China

China International Capital Corporation Limited operates as an international investment bank. The Company provides financial services, including investment banking, capital markets, securities sales and trading, fixed income, asset management, and private equity. China International Capital also offers individual wealth management and research services.

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China International Capital (601995 CH)

CICC (3908 HK): CSRC's Approval of the Merger

The market has concerns about the merger's EPS dilution for CICC. However, it is strategically important. Also, CICC's 0.57x 12-month forward P/B...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (Aug 28th): Gwmotor, China Mobile, Remegen, Fuyao Glass, Minsheng Bank

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Gwmotor, China Mobile, Remegen, Fuyao Glass, Minsheng Bank.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CX Daily: Chinese Consumers Deluged With Cheap Loans

Loans / In Depth: Chinese consumers deluged with cheap loans In the space of a month or so, three or four banks came knocking on the door of a top...

Caixin Global

CX Daily: Modi Steers India’s Relationship With Russia Through Storm of Ukraine War

India / Cover Story: Modi steers India’s relationship with Russia through storm of Ukraine war In the months leading up to the New Delhi summit,...

Caixin Global

Chinese Banks: New Asset Classification Rules | You Can Run but You Can't Hide

New asset classification rules have officially been announced. We see this as a long-term positive for the sector as regulators continue to bring...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

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