HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

China International Capital Corporation / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-capital-corporation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1071:1" rel="noopener">China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)</a> is a laggard among the Chinese securities companies. With the rebound in HSI and Shanghai Composite, such divergence should narrow.</li>
<li>The investment banking business should recover following the rebound in the secondary market and equity valuations. HK's IPO funds raised are forecast to double in 2024.</li>
<li>At 0.4x 12-month P/B, the market has deeply discounted CICC's earnings outlook. However, as earnings recovery will be fast, its share price will react rapidly.</li>
</ul>



China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK) is a laggard among the Chinese securities companies. With the rebound in HSI and Shanghai Composite, such divergence should narrow.
The investment banking business should recover following the rebound in the secondary market and equity valuations. HK's IPO funds raised are forecast to double in 2024.
At 0.4x 12-month P/B, the market has deeply discounted CICC's earnings outlook. However, as earnings recovery will be fast, its share price will react rapidly.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

China International Capital Corporation / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND's buy streak was interrupted again this past week, but they still net bought, as did NORTHBOUND. HK stocks continued bouncing VERY hard. Hs outperformed As very strongly.</li>
<li>As had a chance to catch up. Did not. Liquid Hs outperformed their As by 4.8% from 30-April through 10-May. Wide premia narrowed more than narrow premia.</li>
</ul>


The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND's buy streak was interrupted again this past week, but they still net bought, as did NORTHBOUND. HK stocks continued bouncing VERY hard. Hs outperformed As very strongly.
As had a chance to catch up. Did not. Liquid Hs outperformed their As by 4.8% from 30-April through 10-May. Wide premia narrowed more than narrow premia.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 10 May 2024):  Excellent Quiddity Portfolio Gains as Hs Rally Huge Vs As

<ul>
<li>The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND flows net positive. AH premia on average fell so Hs OUTperformed As by 2.1%. Liquid Hs saw their H outperform the A by 3.1% on average.</li>
<li>Last week was the sharpest one-week fall in AH premium in a very long time.  SOUTHBOUND Flows Monitor <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hk-connect-southbound-flows-to-23-feb-2024-selling-of-consumer-stocks-but-big-buys-of-soes" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>. NORTHBOUND Flows Monitor <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mainland-connect-northbound-flows-to-23-feb-2024-foreigners-buy-natl-team-buys-retail-sells" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>.</li>
</ul>


The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND flows net positive. AH premia on average fell so Hs OUTperformed As by 2.1%. Liquid Hs saw their H outperform the A by 3.1% on average.
Last week was the sharpest one-week fall in AH premium in a very long time.  SOUTHBOUND Flows Monitor here. NORTHBOUND Flows Monitor here.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 23 Feb 2024):  Liquid AH Premia See Sharpest Fall in a LOONG (He-He) Time

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The CSRC has approved <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-group-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16185:1" rel="noopener">Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH)</a>'s application to issue H-shares to be listed on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Under the approval, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-group-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16185:1" rel="noopener">Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH)</a> can issue up to 650.85m shares. Depending on the H-share discount, that could raise up to HK$43.6bn (US$5.6bn).</li>
<li>The IPO is likely to be smaller and will depend on market conditions and the discount demanded on the H-shares. That in turn will determine index inclusion for the H-shares.</li>
</ul>


The CSRC has approved Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH)'s application to issue H-shares to be listed on the HKEX (388 HK). 
Under the approval, Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH) can issue up to 650.85m shares. Depending on the H-share discount, that could raise up to HK$43.6bn (US$5.6bn).
The IPO is likely to be smaller and will depend on market conditions and the discount demanded on the H-shares. That in turn will determine index inclusion for the H-shares.


Midea Group (000333 CH): CSRC Approval ✓; IPO Size Will Depend on H-Share Discount

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Continued tailwinds for oil tanker stocks with tight markets keeping rates high</li>
<li>The copper supply and demand story is becoming more widely known and speculative interest is rising</li>
<li>Oil corrects  as the geopolitical premium subsides,but the longer-term story remains intact</li>
</ul>


Continued tailwinds for oil tanker stocks with tight markets keeping rates high
The copper supply and demand story is becoming more widely known and speculative interest is rising
Oil corrects  as the geopolitical premium subsides,but the longer-term story remains intact


Update on Some of the HK Commodity Stocks We Follow

China

China International Capital Corporation Ltd. (CICC) operates as an international investment bank. The Company provides financial services, including investment banking, capital markets, securities sales and trading, fixed income, asset management, and private equity. China International Capital also offers individual wealth management and research services.

China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)

CICC (3908 HK): Soon to Be Its Time

CICC is a laggard among Chinese securities companies. With the market rebound, its earnings and share price are set to improve rapidly. Its 0.4x P...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A/H Premium Tracker (To 10 May 2024): Excellent Quiddity Portfolio Gains as Hs Rally Huge Vs As

AH Premia narrowed significantly. As an average, they are down near 52wk lows, with most of the move having taken place in the last 3 weeks. Some...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (To 23 Feb 2024): Liquid AH Premia See Sharpest Fall in a LOONG (He-He) Time

Quiddity AH Monitor. The Quiddity Portfolio +1.49% despite being only 55% net long (52 long H short A, 15 short H long A); Big week in many pairs....

Travis Lundy

Update on Some of the HK Commodity Stocks We Follow

Revisiting some of the Hong Kong commodity stocks we have highlighted previously. Tanker rates remain high, copper demand grows amid speculation,...

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

CICC (3908 HK): Soon to Be Its Time

​CICC is a laggard among Chinese securities companies. With the market rebound, its earnings and share price are set to improve rapidly. Its 0.4x P...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A/H Premium Tracker (To 10 May 2024): Excellent Quiddity Portfolio Gains as Hs Rally Huge Vs As

AH Premia narrowed significantly. As an average, they are down near 52wk lows, with most of the move having taken place in the last 3 weeks. Some...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (To 23 Feb 2024): Liquid AH Premia See Sharpest Fall in a LOONG (He-He) Time

Quiddity AH Monitor. The Quiddity Portfolio +1.49% despite being only 55% net long (52 long H short A, 15 short H long A); Big week in many pairs....

Travis Lundy

Midea Group (000333 CH): CSRC Approval ✓; IPO Size Will Depend on H-Share Discount

The CSRC has approved Midea Group's application to list H-shares on the HKEX. The amount raised will depend on market conditions, investor...

Brian Freitas

Update on Some of the HK Commodity Stocks We Follow

Revisiting some of the Hong Kong commodity stocks we have highlighted previously. ​Tanker rates remain high, copper demand grows amid speculation,...

Rikki Malik

CICC is a laggard among Chinese securities companies. With the market rebound, its earnings and share price are set to improve rapidly. Its 0.4x P...

Revisiting some of the Hong Kong commodity stocks we have highlighted previously. Tanker rates remain high, copper demand grows amid speculation,...