Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

China International Capital Corporation / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Huge volumes continue to be traded on the mainland share markets. SOUTHBOUND volumes bounced, and net buying was both large and broad-based.</li>
<li>Stocks in HK and mainland markets fell heavily with HK's main indices down 6-7% and China's blue chip indices down 3.3-3.6% (CSI 500 - 4.8%). </li>
<li>Within H/A Pairs, after outperforming the HK/mainland spread for weeks, spreads got shellacked. Worst week in a long time (-3.7%), perhaps on the back of "disappointing" lack of stimulus measures.</li>
</ul>


Huge volumes continue to be traded on the mainland share markets. SOUTHBOUND volumes bounced, and net buying was both large and broad-based.
Stocks in HK and mainland markets fell heavily with HK's main indices down 6-7% and China's blue chip indices down 3.3-3.6% (CSI 500 - 4.8%). 
Within H/A Pairs, after outperforming the HK/mainland spread for weeks, spreads got shellacked. Worst week in a long time (-3.7%), perhaps on the back of "disappointing" lack of stimulus measures.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 15 Nov 2024): AH Premia Rise Sharply; Hs Shellacked Vs As In Most Sectors

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Focus solely on the local government debt swap which is bigger than expected</li>
<li>There is nothing new in policy direction but promises of more to come</li>
<li>The market action around the press conference shows the potential for upside surprises</li>
</ul>


Focus solely on the local government debt swap which is bigger than expected
There is nothing new in policy direction but promises of more to come
The market action around the press conference shows the potential for upside surprises


Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong markets continue to outperform this year with the HSCEI up 30% year to date.  Market breadth continues to be healthy with 80% of stocks over &gt; 200 DMA.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xpeng-inc-4cc65854-d10c-4d20-bf7e-ca0e016715ff" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33772:1" rel="noopener">XPeng (9868 HK)</a> announced its new hybrid technology which gives vehicles a range of more than 870 miles (1400 Kms).  The company has delivered more than 120k vehicles YTD.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-securities-co-4f5d644c-0051-426f-9706-eaa74b0ba280" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22738:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Securities Co Ltd (H) (6099 HK)</a> benefits from increased market turnover.   <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc-0533692c-6dae-4014-baa1-ed0b050638f2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29259:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings (9987 HK)</a> beat consensus for 3Q24 earnings and will continue its buyback program.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong markets continue to outperform this year with the HSCEI up 30% year to date.  Market breadth continues to be healthy with 80% of stocks over &gt; 200 DMA.

XPeng (9868 HK) announced its new hybrid technology which gives vehicles a range of more than 870 miles (1400 Kms).  The company has delivered more than 120k vehicles YTD.

China Merchants Securities Co Ltd (H) (6099 HK) benefits from increased market turnover.   Yum China Holdings (9987 HK) beat consensus for 3Q24 earnings and will continue its buyback program.


The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (November 7)

<ul>
<li>Expectation management of any stimulus package gives the potential to overdeliver</li>
<li>Recent economic data is surprising to the upside in China</li>
<li>Divergent investor viewpoints and Trump's win likely mean offshore markets will be more volatile than onshore</li>
</ul>


Expectation management of any stimulus package gives the potential to overdeliver
Recent economic data is surprising to the upside in China
Divergent investor viewpoints and Trump's win likely mean offshore markets will be more volatile than onshore


Much Ado About Nothing -Or Why the China Stimulus Package Doesn’t Matter as Much as Investors Think

China Cinda Asset Management / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>China's Ministry of Finance (MOF) has announced plans to sell its stakes in its Asset Management Companies (AMCs) to its sovereign wealth fund, China Investment Corporation (CIC).</li>
<li>The previously announced large debt swap program for LGFVs will ease financing conditions for local governments and should improve distressed debt valuations.</li>
<li>China Cinda Asset Management (1359 HK) will benefit from the PBOC's monetary stimulus program and the support of its new major shareholder with a potential recapitalization.</li>
</ul>


China's Ministry of Finance (MOF) has announced plans to sell its stakes in its Asset Management Companies (AMCs) to its sovereign wealth fund, China Investment Corporation (CIC).
The previously announced large debt swap program for LGFVs will ease financing conditions for local governments and should improve distressed debt valuations.
China Cinda Asset Management (1359 HK) will benefit from the PBOC's monetary stimulus program and the support of its new major shareholder with a potential recapitalization.


HK/CHINA: China Cinda Asset Management a Beneficiary of AMC Restructuring

China

China International Capital Corporation Ltd. (CICC) operates as an international investment bank. The Company provides financial services, including investment banking, capital markets, securities sales and trading, fixed income, asset management, and private equity. China International Capital also offers individual wealth management and research services.

China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)

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China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 15 Nov 2024): AH Premia Rise Sharply; Hs Shellacked Vs As In Most Sectors

H/A Pairs got hurt badly this week - on average liquid Hs underperformed their As by 3.7% - as HK and China markets fell sharply after stimulus was...

Travis Lundy

NPC/MoF Press Conference- First Take

Local government debt swap surpasses expectations, but promises of more to come is giving some investors fatigue. Market action is promising

Rikki Malik

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (November 7)

Hong Kong markets are among the top performers this year. Short selling has declined as Southbound buying increases. Xpeng introduced a new hybrid...

David Mudd

Much Ado About Nothing -Or Why the China Stimulus Package Doesn’t Matter as Much as Investors Think

Expectation management has been key as China's economic data surprises on the upside, but divergent investor views and Trump's win may lead to...

Rikki Malik

HK/CHINA: China Cinda Asset Management a Beneficiary of AMC Restructuring

The MOF announced that it is selling its shares in AMCs to China's sovereign wealth fund. This sale as well as recently announced monetary...

David Mudd

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 15 Nov 2024): AH Premia Rise Sharply; Hs Shellacked Vs As In Most Sectors

H/A Pairs got hurt badly this week - on average liquid Hs underperformed their As by 3.7% - as HK and China markets fell sharply after stimulus was...

Travis Lundy

NPC/MoF Press Conference- First Take

​Local government debt swap surpasses expectations, but promises of more to come is giving some investors fatigue. Market action is promising

Rikki Malik

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (November 7)

Hong Kong markets are among the top performers this year. Short selling has declined as Southbound buying increases. Xpeng introduced a new hybrid...

David Mudd

Much Ado About Nothing -Or Why the China Stimulus Package Doesn’t Matter as Much as Investors Think

​Expectation management has been key as China's economic data surprises on the upside, but divergent investor views and Trump's win may lead to...

Rikki Malik

HK/CHINA: China Cinda Asset Management a Beneficiary of AMC Restructuring

The MOF announced that it is selling its shares in AMCs to China's sovereign wealth fund. This sale as well as recently announced monetary...

David Mudd

Local government debt swap surpasses expectations, but promises of more to come is giving some investors fatigue. Market action is promising

Expectation management has been key as China's economic data surprises on the upside, but divergent investor views and Trump's win may lead to...