External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We downgrade Meidong to HOLD from Buy despite its superb management execution, as we believe it still faces strong industry headwinds in the short term and may lack catalysts amid its high valuation.</li><li>We think the weak earnings in 2H22 could extend into 1H23E.</li><li>Key metrics in 2H22 trailing peers. Porsche’s new-car GPM at Meidong narrowed to a historical-low of 3.2% in 2H22.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We downgrade Meidong to HOLD from Buy despite its superb management execution, as we believe it still faces strong industry headwinds in the short term and may lack catalysts amid its high valuation.We think the weak earnings in 2H22 could extend into 1H23E.Key metrics in 2H22 trailing peers. Porsche’s new-car GPM at Meidong narrowed to a historical-low of 3.2% in 2H22.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Meidong Auto (1268 HK) – Lingering industry headwinds amid high valuation

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume fell 43% YoY in Jan 2023, in line with our prior forecast of 44% YoY decline.</li><li>Wholesale volume fell 33% YoY last month, 30% stronger than our prior projection, largely due to much weaker than-expected inventory destocking and higher export volume.</li><li>PV exports only fell 9% MoM to about 250,000 units in Jan 2023. Automakers only cut about 26,000 units of inventories in their dealers’ showrooms in Jan 2023 based on our calculations, despite early Chinese New Year, which has led to more than two months of inventories based on our projected retail sales volume for Feb and Mar 2023. I</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume fell 43% YoY in Jan 2023, in line with our prior forecast of 44% YoY decline.Wholesale volume fell 33% YoY last month, 30% stronger than our prior projection, largely due to much weaker than-expected inventory destocking and higher export volume.PV exports only fell 9% MoM to about 250,000 units in Jan 2023. Automakers only cut about 26,000 units of inventories in their dealers’ showrooms in Jan 2023 based on our calculations, despite early Chinese New Year, which has led to more than two months of inventories based on our projected retail sales volume for Feb and Mar 2023. IContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – Inventory risk could lead to a bumpy recovery

<ul><li>Nine new-energy vehicle (NEV) brands including BYD, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Zeekr, Aion, Aito, Neta and Leap reported their Jan 2023 sales volumes on 1 Feb 2023.</li><li>Sales volume of the nine brands combined rose 22% YoY (ranged from -86% to +449%) and dropped 42% MoM (ranged from -87% to -23%)</li><li>Li Auto beat, NIO and Xpeng miss. Li Auto delivered over 15,000 units in Jan 2023, exceeding some investors’ expectation.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nine new-energy vehicle (NEV) brands including BYD, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Zeekr, Aion, Aito, Neta and Leap reported their Jan 2023 sales volumes on 1 Feb 2023.Sales volume of the nine brands combined rose 22% YoY (ranged from -86% to +449%) and dropped 42% MoM (ranged from -87% to -23%)Li Auto beat, NIO and Xpeng miss. Li Auto delivered over 15,000 units in Jan 2023, exceeding some investors’ expectation.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – Jan NEV likely in line or slightly miss; Li Auto beat

<ul><li>We project Meidong’s 2H22E net profit to fall 23% YoY amid new-car margin weakness in 4Q22.</li><li>On the other hand, we expect StarChase and after-sales services to aid its profitability with FY23E net profit to surge 76% YoY on our estimates.</li><li>We believe Meidong is still best positioned among Chinese dealers with its strongest management execution and better brand mix than its peers.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We project Meidong’s 2H22E net profit to fall 23% YoY amid new-car margin weakness in 4Q22.On the other hand, we expect StarChase and after-sales services to aid its profitability with FY23E net profit to surge 76% YoY on our estimates.We believe Meidong is still best positioned among Chinese dealers with its strongest management execution and better brand mix than its peers.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Meidong Auto (1268 HK) – We expect 2H22E net profit to fall 23% YoY

<ul><li>In our last report dated 17 October, we highlighted a list of 21 long ideas.</li><li>The basket (equal weighted) of these 21 stocks underperformed MSCI China index by 5.4ppt, delivering 0.2% return (vs MSCI China 5.6%).</li><li>China Meidong Auto and Innovent Biologics delivered over 20% of return, and 4 of our 21 long ideas outperformed the benchmark.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

In our last report dated 17 October, we highlighted a list of 21 long ideas.The basket (equal weighted) of these 21 stocks underperformed MSCI China index by 5.4ppt, delivering 0.2% return (vs MSCI China 5.6%).China Meidong Auto and Innovent Biologics delivered over 20% of return, and 4 of our 21 long ideas outperformed the benchmark.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CMBI Research Focus List (November Edition) – Our best high conviction stock ideas

China

China Meidong Auto Holdings Limited is an automobile dealership and maintenance group in China.

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China MeiDong Auto (1268 HK)