Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Hs underperformed As on average by 1.88% within the liquid AH pair universe. Defensive Hs outperform As. Others not.</li>
<li>Nine new recos last week. The one labelled saw H underperform A by 2%. Ouch. 15+ new trades this week.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Southbound Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Pairs Monitor</a> are both there - free - for all SK readers.</li>
</ul>


Hs underperformed As on average by 1.88% within the liquid AH pair universe. Defensive Hs outperform As. Others not.
Nine new recos last week. The one labelled saw H underperform A by 2%. Ouch. 15+ new trades this week.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The Southbound Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there - free - for all SK readers.


A/H Premium Tracker (Week to 21 Nov 2025):  Hs Sharply Underperform As. Year-End Unwinding?

<ul>
<li>"Beautiful Skew" showed up slightly as Hs underperformed their As across the board (every sector, every premium tranche), but more on narrow AH Premia. </li>
<li>Last week's short reco on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-bank-co-ltd-3388a037-4214-4997-b45d-520518cfdb57" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10987:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK)</a> saw the H-share underperform its A by 2.54% and it outright fell 3.14%. OK week. </li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Pairs Monitor</a> are both there - free - for all SK readers.</li>
</ul>


"Beautiful Skew" showed up slightly as Hs underperformed their As across the board (every sector, every premium tranche), but more on narrow AH Premia. 
Last week's short reco on China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK) saw the H-share underperform its A by 2.54% and it outright fell 3.14%. OK week. 
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there - free - for all SK readers.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 26 Sep 2025):  AH Premia Rise Across the Board

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China Merchants Bank A / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
 <li>China Merchants Bank (CMB) stands out as a premier, retail-focused bank in China, leveraging its strong brand and early adoption of technology to build a leading position in wealth management and private banking.</li>
 <li>Despite macroeconomic headwinds from China's property sector downturn and slowing economic growth, CMB has demonstrated resilience, maintaining superior profitability (ROAA and ROAE) compared to peers, though net interest margins (NIMs) are under pressure.</li>
 <li>The bank's forward-looking strategy is centered on a 'light-asset' model, deepening its digital transformation ('AI First' philosophy), and expanding its wealth management ecosystem, which should support long-term, high-quality growth even as near-term challenges persist.</li>
</ul>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


  China Merchants Bank (CMB) stands out as a premier, retail-focused bank in China, leveraging its strong brand and early adoption of technology to build a leading position in wealth management and private banking.
  Despite macroeconomic headwinds from China's property sector downturn and slowing economic growth, CMB has demonstrated resilience, maintaining superior profitability (ROAA and ROAE) compared to peers, though net interest margins (NIMs) are under pressure.
  The bank's forward-looking strategy is centered on a 'light-asset' model, deepening its digital transformation ('AI First' philosophy), and expanding its wealth management ecosystem, which should support long-term, high-quality growth even as near-term challenges persist.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: China Merchants Bank A (600036 CH) - Sep 2025

<ul>
<li>"Beautiful Skew" nowhere this past week. The meat of the wider parts of the AH premia curve saw Hs underperform even as liquid Hs outperformed As average by 0.6%.</li>
<li>Last week's long reco on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)</a> saw the H-share underperform its A by 6.56%. It was a bad week. </li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Pairs Monitor</a> are both there for all SK readers.</li>
</ul>


"Beautiful Skew" nowhere this past week. The meat of the wider parts of the AH premia curve saw Hs underperform even as liquid Hs outperformed As average by 0.6%.
Last week's long reco on CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) saw the H-share underperform its A by 6.56%. It was a bad week. 
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there for all SK readers.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 19 Sep 2025):  AH Premia Contract More, Spreads Still Volatile

<ul>
<li>AH premia down, bouncing back. "Beautiful Skew" continues generally, but curve skew less pronounced. Average AH moves remain volatile - often the sign of significant distribution changes.</li>
<li>The Quiddity Portfolio is now smaller, less concentrated, and the net H vs A bias is MUCH smaller. Alpha continues, predicated on beautiful skew. But pair vol is very high. </li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Monitor</a> are both there free for SK readers.</li>
</ul>


AH premia down, bouncing back. "Beautiful Skew" continues generally, but curve skew less pronounced. Average AH moves remain volatile - often the sign of significant distribution changes.
The Quiddity Portfolio is now smaller, less concentrated, and the net H vs A bias is MUCH smaller. Alpha continues, predicated on beautiful skew. But pair vol is very high. 
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 8 Aug 2025):  Premium Hs Unwind, Again. Beautiful Skew Flavour Continues

China

China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd. operates as a commercial bank. The Company provides deposits, loans, wealth management, asset custody, finance leasing, investment banking, and other banking services. China Merchants Bank conducts businesses domestically and internationally.

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China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK)

A/H Premium Tracker (Week to 21 Nov 2025): Hs Sharply Underperform As. Year-End Unwinding?

Hs underperformed As in the pairs reasonably sharply. Defensive stocks saw Hs outperform somewhat. Looks like the tide is turning here. Lots of new...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (To 26 Sep 2025): AH Premia Rise Across the Board

AH Premia rose this week despite sharp SOUTHBOUND net buying. Feels like narrow AH premia could widen further though it will be a stunted AH week...

Travis Lundy

Primer: China Merchants Bank A (600036 CH) - Sep 2025

China Merchants Bank (CMB) stands out as a premier, retail-focused bank in China, leveraging its strong brand and early adoption of technology...

αSK

A/H Premium Tracker (To 19 Sep 2025): AH Premia Contract More, Spreads Still Volatile

Spreads are contracting, still. But they are volatile where they need not be, and H Premia stocks finally saw As outperform again.

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (To 8 Aug 2025): Premium Hs Unwind, Again. Beautiful Skew Flavour Continues

Hs generally outperformed their As last week in volatile fashion. Super-liquid Hs trading at a premium to As lost. Second good week in a row for...

Travis Lundy

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