Data-driven Insight on Companies & Consumer Trends, TickerTrends

TickerTrends

Data-driven Insight on Companies & Consumer Trends

Equity Bottom-Up

China Merchants China Direct Investments / Equity Bottom-Up

China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK)

<ul><li>Moonshot AI appears close to releasing Kimi K3, potentially its largest model upgrade to date.</li><li>GLM-5.2 was released in June with public weights and a 1 million-token context window. Its strength in coding and long-horizon agent tasks quickly drove attention outside China, with the model gaining usage on OpenRouter and being discussed as one of the first open-weight models that worked well as a general coding agent.</li><li>K3 has the potential to create a similar reaction.</li></ul>

Moonshot AI appears close to releasing Kimi K3, potentially its largest model upgrade to date.GLM-5.2 was released in June with public weights and a 1 million-token context window. Its strength in coding and long-horizon agent tasks quickly drove attention outside China, with the model gaining usage on OpenRouter and being discussed as one of the first open-weight models that worked well as a general coding agent.K3 has the potential to create a similar reaction.

Kimi K3: The Next Major Open-Weight Model Release?

Insurance & Central Asia-focused Analyst, KT Capital Group

Alec Tseung

Insurance & Central Asia-focused Analyst

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

<ul>
<li>ASM is a hedge fund with a strong track record of investor activism in taking over distressed assets and closed-end funds. </li>
<li>Lazard, the second largest CMCDI shareholder, bought shares last week at a multi-year high sending a strong message to the market.</li>
<li>CMCDI can also explore announcing a discount management program besides agreeing to ASM's claim to sell assets to pay dividends and offer a share buyback to reduce the NAV discount.</li>
</ul>


ASM is a hedge fund with a strong track record of investor activism in taking over distressed assets and closed-end funds. 
Lazard, the second largest CMCDI shareholder, bought shares last week at a multi-year high sending a strong message to the market.
CMCDI can also explore announcing a discount management program besides agreeing to ASM's claim to sell assets to pay dividends and offer a share buyback to reduce the NAV discount.


The Battle of CMCDI: What Is the Endgame?

<ul>
<li>While Elizabeth Kan barely survived the AGM vote, ASM has effectively mobilized minority shareholders.</li>
<li>Lazard (owns 15% of CMCDI) probably voted alongside ASM (owns 9%). Other than China Merchants Group and Victor Chu, almost no "outside shareholders" voted in favor of Kan, .</li>
<li>The next battleground is a vote in November when CMCDI needs to renew its investment management agreement. Intense behind-the-scene negotiations are expected, given the bargaining power ASM now demonstrated.</li>
</ul>


While Elizabeth Kan barely survived the AGM vote, ASM has effectively mobilized minority shareholders.
Lazard (owns 15% of CMCDI) probably voted alongside ASM (owns 9%). Other than China Merchants Group and Victor Chu, almost no "outside shareholders" voted in favor of Kan, .
The next battleground is a vote in November when CMCDI needs to renew its investment management agreement. Intense behind-the-scene negotiations are expected, given the bargaining power ASM now demonstrated.


CMCDI Update: Warning Shot Fired At AGM Despite Kan’s Successful Re-Election

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

China Merchants China Direct Investments / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Activist Argyle Street's approach to closed-end investment company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-china-direct-investments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6862:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK)</a> (CMCDI) has a certain David Webb-like quality.</li>
<li>Apart from the deep value angle, the analysis of director Elizabeth Kan's potential conflict of interest is particularly insightful. Argle will vote against Kan's re-election at the 20th June AGM</li>
<li>Given this upcoming vote, as I've done with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giordano-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13899:1" rel="noopener">Giordano (709 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-occitane-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6772:1" rel="noopener">L'Occitane (973 HK)</a> previously, it's useful to investigate the lesser-known shareholder register, a byproduct of investigative disclosure reports.</li>
</ul>


Activist Argyle Street's approach to closed-end investment company China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK) (CMCDI) has a certain David Webb-like quality.
Apart from the deep value angle, the analysis of director Elizabeth Kan's potential conflict of interest is particularly insightful. Argle will vote against Kan's re-election at the 20th June AGM
Given this upcoming vote, as I've done with Giordano (709 HK) and L'Occitane (973 HK) previously, it's useful to investigate the lesser-known shareholder register, a byproduct of investigative disclosure reports.


CMCDI (133 HK): AGM Outcome May Provide Another Leg-Up

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Where so many of us are focused on the impact of China slowdown on its banks, it is worth highlighting the risks to Hong Kong’s banks. But what we are focused on here is their domestic lending, not the stuff booked locally but for use in China. For most, the perception is that Hong Kong banks have little risk due to a strong emphasis on mortgage lending, but we are not convinced this is holding up, and we believe it will worsen.  Of course, the new marginally higher interest costs in Hong Kong…

Where so many of us are focused on the impact of China slowdown on its banks, it is worth highlighting the risks to Hong Kong’s banks. But what we are focused on here is their domestic lending, not the stuff booked locally but for use in China. For most, the perception is that Hong Kong banks have little risk due to a strong emphasis on mortgage lending, but we are not convinced this is holding up, and we believe it will worsen.  Of course, the new marginally higher interest costs in Hong Kong…

Domestic NPLs in Hong Kong Can Surprise – Not Just Those in Neighboring China

Hong Kong

China Merchants China Direct Investments is an investment holding company specializing in direct investments in China, primarily in unlisted enterprises. It invests across various sectors including financial services, culture and media, manufacturing, real estate, information technology, energy and resources, and medical. The company is headquartered in Hong Kong and started its operations in 1993.

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China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK)

Kimi K3: The Next Major Open-Weight Model Release?

Moonshot AI appears close to releasing Kimi K3, potentially its largest model upgrade to date. GLM-5.2 was released in June with public weights...

TickerTrends

The Battle of CMCDI: What Is the Endgame?

CMCDI's AGM was held yesterday, where Elizabeth Kan survived the vote with a razor-thin margin. The outcome demonstrated ASM's ability to mobilize...

Alec Tseung

CMCDI Update: Warning Shot Fired At AGM Despite Kan’s Successful Re-Election

ASM successfully demonstrated its ability to mobilize other minority shareholders and its bargaining power at the AGM, although Director Elizabeth...

Alec Tseung

CMCDI (133 HK): AGM Outcome May Provide Another Leg-Up

CMCDI is cheap. If small, illiquid names, with a activism angle are your thing, pick up shares here. Keep an eye on the AGM. If Kan is booted, this...

David Blennerhassett

Domestic NPLs in Hong Kong Can Surprise – Not Just Those in Neighboring China

Where so many of us are focused on the impact of China slowdown on its banks, it is worth highlighting the risks to Hong Kong’s banks. But what we...

Daniel Tabbush

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Kimi K3: The Next Major Open-Weight Model Release?

Moonshot AI appears close to releasing Kimi K3, potentially its largest model upgrade to date. GLM-5.2 was released in June with public weights...

TickerTrends

The Battle of CMCDI: What Is the Endgame?

CMCDI's AGM was held yesterday, where Elizabeth Kan survived the vote with a razor-thin margin. The outcome demonstrated ASM's ability to mobilize...

Alec Tseung

CMCDI Update: Warning Shot Fired At AGM Despite Kan’s Successful Re-Election

​ASM successfully demonstrated its ability to mobilize other minority shareholders and its bargaining power at the AGM, although Director Elizabeth...

Alec Tseung

CMCDI (133 HK): AGM Outcome May Provide Another Leg-Up

CMCDI is cheap. If small, illiquid names, with a activism angle are your thing, pick up shares here. Keep an eye on the AGM. If Kan is booted, this...

David Blennerhassett

Domestic NPLs in Hong Kong Can Surprise – Not Just Those in Neighboring China

Where so many of us are focused on the impact of China slowdown on its banks, it is worth highlighting the risks to Hong Kong’s banks. But what we...

Daniel Tabbush

ASM successfully demonstrated its ability to mobilize other minority shareholders and its bargaining power at the AGM, although Director Elizabeth...