Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services / Equity Bottom-Up

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM US)

<ul>
<li>Deep-Sea container rates surged in May, yielding best read since June 2022</li>
<li>But volume growth into North American WC ports slowed noticeably...</li>
<li>We believe Q224 results will impress, and still like our Long/Short pairs</li>
</ul>


Deep-Sea container rates surged in May, yielding best read since June 2022
But volume growth into North American WC ports slowed noticeably...
We believe Q224 results will impress, and still like our Long/Short pairs


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Pricing Surged in May | Did Volume Growth Wobble? | (June 2024)

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our index shows April pricing momentum remained positive in deep-sea trades</li>
<li>Evergreen Marine posted strong revenue and earnings growth in Q124</li>
<li>Container carriers have performed well YTD in 2024; we expect convergence</li>
</ul>


Our index shows April pricing momentum remained positive in deep-sea trades
Evergreen Marine posted strong revenue and earnings growth in Q124
Container carriers have performed well YTD in 2024; we expect convergence


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Pricing Still Firm | Share Prices Converging | (May 2024)

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>China's two national port companies <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-port-holdings-company-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15155:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Port (144 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-ports-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:360:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Ports (1199 HK)</a> have underperformed, but exports have picked up. We see an opportunity here.</li>
<li>With a 9.2% increase in container throughput, CSPL even down by 4.8% YTD, underperformed CMPH by 12.9pp. There is room for it to catch up.</li>
<li>CSPL is also cheaper at 7x and 6.3x PERs for the next two years, making it more attractive on a relative basis.</li>
</ul>


China's two national port companies China Merchants Port (144 HK) and Cosco Shipping Ports (1199 HK) have underperformed, but exports have picked up. We see an opportunity here.
With a 9.2% increase in container throughput, CSPL even down by 4.8% YTD, underperformed CMPH by 12.9pp. There is room for it to catch up.
CSPL is also cheaper at 7x and 6.3x PERs for the next two years, making it more attractive on a relative basis.


China Port Pair Opportunity: COSCO Shipping Ports Vs. China Merchants Port

<ul>
<li>Our analysis suggests container rate momentum remained +ive in March</li>
<li>Despite higher fuel expense, core container margins likely rose Y/Y in Q124</li>
<li>Our L/S pair trade? It's worked, a little, but Evergreen shares have stayed firm</li>
</ul>


Our analysis suggests container rate momentum remained +ive in March
Despite higher fuel expense, core container margins likely rose Y/Y in Q124
Our L/S pair trade? It's worked, a little, but Evergreen shares have stayed firm


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | March Volumes Strong | Q1 Margins Likely Up Y/Y (April 2024)

<ul>
<li>Strong uptick in price momentum in February reflects booming spot market</li>
<li>February container throughput growth in key regions also firm, up 7.4% Y/Y</li>
<li>We suggest Short Evergreen vs Long Maersk (or ZIM) pair trade idea</li>
</ul>


Strong uptick in price momentum in February reflects booming spot market
February container throughput growth in key regions also firm, up 7.4% Y/Y
We suggest Short Evergreen vs Long Maersk (or ZIM) pair trade idea


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | February Spot Rates Strong | Volume Firm, Too | (March 2024)

Hong Kong

China Merchants Port is a leading global port developer, investor, and operator, primarily engaged in port operations, bonded logistics, and property investment. The company manages container and bulk/general cargo terminals, operates logistics parks, and provides port transportation and airport cargo handling services. It is headquartered in Hong Kong and was founded in 1991.

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China Merchants Port (144 HK)

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Pricing Surged in May | Did Volume Growth Wobble? | (June 2024)

Deep-sea container shipping price momentum surged in May, even though volumes into the North American West Coast slowed. We think this is a head...

Tracking Traffic

China Port Pair Opportunity: COSCO Shipping Ports Vs. China Merchants Port

China's national port companies, CMPH and CSPL, have underperformed but with recovering throughput, there is an opportunity. CSPL is cheaper at 7x...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | March Volumes Strong | Q1 Margins Likely Up Y/Y (April 2024)

Container rate momentum remained +ive in March, & we believe carriers' margins probably improved Y/Y in Q124 (despite higher fuel expenses). Our L...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | February Spot Rates Strong | Volume Firm, Too | (March 2024)

February price momentum improved dramatically, to levels not seen since Q322. Spot rates have lifted some carriers' shares YTD, but we expect share...

Tracking Traffic

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Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Pricing Surged in May | Did Volume Growth Wobble? | (June 2024)

Deep-sea container shipping price momentum surged in May, even though volumes into the North American West Coast slowed. We think this is a head...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Pricing Still Firm | Share Prices Converging | (May 2024)

Average deep-sea rates and traffic remained firm in April. The L/S pair trades we suggested back in mid-March? One of them has worked out quite well.

Tracking Traffic

China Port Pair Opportunity: COSCO Shipping Ports Vs. China Merchants Port

​China's national port companies, CMPH and CSPL, have underperformed but with recovering throughput, there is an opportunity. CSPL is cheaper at 7x...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | March Volumes Strong | Q1 Margins Likely Up Y/Y (April 2024)

Container rate momentum remained +ive in March, & we believe carriers' margins probably improved Y/Y in Q124 (despite higher fuel expenses). Our L...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | February Spot Rates Strong | Volume Firm, Too | (March 2024)

February price momentum improved dramatically, to levels not seen since Q322. Spot rates have lifted some carriers' shares YTD, but we expect share...

Tracking Traffic

China's national port companies, CMPH and CSPL, have underperformed but with recovering throughput, there is an opportunity. CSPL is cheaper at 7x...