Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Brilliance China Automotive / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We see 44 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 19 potential deletes (on market cap, liquidity and suspension) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.</li>
<li>We expect 37 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 37 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only. </li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 44 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 19 potential deletes (on market cap, liquidity and suspension) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.
We expect 37 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 37 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only. 
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: A Lot of Change

<ul>
<li>We see 3 potential adds for the HSCI in December. We also see 26 potential adds and 16 potential deletes for the index in March.</li>
<li>Following the March rebalance, we see 22 potential inclusions to Stock Connect while we expect 37 stocks to be removed from the link.</li>
<li>Some of the potential deletions/ Stock Connect drops have large Southbound holdings and some of these positions could be pared back over the next few months.</li>
</ul>


We see 3 potential adds for the HSCI in December. We also see 26 potential adds and 16 potential deletes for the index in March.
Following the March rebalance, we see 22 potential inclusions to Stock Connect while we expect 37 stocks to be removed from the link.
Some of the potential deletions/ Stock Connect drops have large Southbound holdings and some of these positions could be pared back over the next few months.


HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Changes at the Margins

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kingston-financial-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3566:1" rel="noopener">Kingston Financial (1031 HK)</a> announced a privatisation offer from Mrs Chu, the controlling shareholder, at HK$0.30 per share, a 47.8% premium to the undisturbed price. The offer price is final.</li>
<li>Key conditions include approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% of disinterested shareholders rejection) and the headcount test. No shareholder holds a blocking stake.</li>
<li>The offer is light and the offeror is betting that the grim market conditions will sway the headcount test in its favour. Scheme document despatched by 21 December. </li>
</ul>



Kingston Financial (1031 HK) announced a privatisation offer from Mrs Chu, the controlling shareholder, at HK$0.30 per share, a 47.8% premium to the undisturbed price. The offer price is final.
Key conditions include approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% of disinterested shareholders rejection) and the headcount test. No shareholder holds a blocking stake.
The offer is light and the offeror is betting that the grim market conditions will sway the headcount test in its favour. Scheme document despatched by 21 December. 


Kingston Financial’s HK$0.30 Privatisation Bid from Mrs Chu

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kingston-financial-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3566:1" rel="noopener">Kingston Financial (1031 HK)</a> entered a trading halt pending an announcement under the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers on 14 October. The shares are at all-time lows. </li>
<li>It is likely that Pollyanna Chu Yuet Wah (CEO and co-founder), the largest shareholder representing 75.61% of ordinary shares (80.09% of diluted shares), is seeking to privatise Kingston.</li>
<li>As privatisation through a Bermuda scheme involves the headcount test, a decent premium is required - an offer at the 1-year average price of HK$0.33 implies a 63% premium.</li>
</ul>



Kingston Financial (1031 HK) entered a trading halt pending an announcement under the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers on 14 October. The shares are at all-time lows. 
It is likely that Pollyanna Chu Yuet Wah (CEO and co-founder), the largest shareholder representing 75.61% of ordinary shares (80.09% of diluted shares), is seeking to privatise Kingston.
As privatisation through a Bermuda scheme involves the headcount test, a decent premium is required - an offer at the 1-year average price of HK$0.33 implies a 63% premium.


Kingston’s All-Time Lows to Draw an Offer from Mrs Chu?

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>China has drafted tough requirements that insurance companies would need to meet to participate in the state-backed personal pension scheme.</li><li>The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC), the country’s top insurance watchdog, issued draft rules to nearly 100 life, health or pension insurers late last month.</li><li>The draft marks the latest step in fleshing out a framework released in April by the State Council, China’s cabinet, for a growing personal pension market.</li></ul>

China has drafted tough requirements that insurance companies would need to meet to participate in the state-backed personal pension scheme.The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC), the country’s top insurance watchdog, issued draft rules to nearly 100 life, health or pension insurers late last month.The draft marks the latest step in fleshing out a framework released in April by the State Council, China’s cabinet, for a growing personal pension market.

China Drafts Tough Rules for Insurers to Join National Personal Pension Scheme, Sources Say

China

China Merchants Securities Co., Ltd. provides securities services. The Company offers securities brokerage, securities investment consulting, securities underwriting, and other services. China Merchants Securities also operates investment management.

China Merchants Securities Co Ltd (H) (6099 HK)

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China Merchants Securities Co Ltd (H) (6099 HK)

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: A Lot of Change

We forecast 44 adds/19 deletes for the HSCI in March leading to 37 adds/deletes for Southbound Stock Connect. There could be more Connect changes...

Brian Freitas

HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Changes at the Margins

We see 3 inclusions for the index in Dec, and then 26 adds/16 deletions in March. Following the March rebal, we see 22 adds/37 deletions for Stock...

Brian Freitas

Kingston Financial’s HK$0.30 Privatisation Bid from Mrs Chu

The key risk is the headcount test. Despite the large premium, the offer is underwhelming to peer multiples and historical share prices. A 60% deal...

Arun George

Kingston’s All-Time Lows to Draw an Offer from Mrs Chu?

Mrs Chu (CEO and co-founder) is likely seeking to privatise Kingston. A decent premium is required as privatisation through a Bermuda scheme (most...

Arun George

China Drafts Tough Rules for Insurers to Join National Personal Pension Scheme, Sources Say

China has drafted tough requirements that insurance companies would need to meet to participate in the state-backed personal pension scheme.

Caixin Global

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)