Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
Exchange holidays: Early October holidays in China (Golden Week) and South Korea (Chuseok) may dampen market activity, while India’s Diwali on 21–22 October brings the traditional Muhurat trading session.</li>
<li>
Earnings season begins in the final third of October across India, Japan, China/Hong Kong, and South Korea, alongside key central bank meetings and the TOPIX rebalance on 30 October.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.</li>
</ul>



Exchange holidays: Early October holidays in China (Golden Week) and South Korea (Chuseok) may dampen market activity, while India’s Diwali on 21–22 October brings the traditional Muhurat trading session.

Earnings season begins in the final third of October across India, Japan, China/Hong Kong, and South Korea, alongside key central bank meetings and the TOPIX rebalance on 30 October.

Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.


Earnings Kickoff Dominates October 2025 Key Events

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Multi-Week forecasts for the Asian indices and stocks we track, based on our proprietary probability model.</li>
<li>OVERBOUGHT: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> </li>
<li>OVERSOLD: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>
</li>
</ul>


Multi-Week forecasts for the Asian indices and stocks we track, based on our proprietary probability model.
OVERBOUGHT: Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) , Softbank Group (9984 JP) , Toyota Motor (7203 JP) , Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) 
OVERSOLD: China Mobile (941 HK) , Fast Retailing (9983 JP)



Asia/Pacific Stocks Outlook For the Week Sep 29-Oct 3

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 26th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Alibaba, Shandong Hi-Speed, Meituan, Tencent, China Mobile, CSPC Pharma, China Telecom, HKEx, Hua Hong Semiconductor.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 26th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Alibaba, Shandong Hi-Speed, Meituan, Tencent, China Mobile, CSPC Pharma, China Telecom, HKEx, Hua Hong Semiconductor.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Sep 26th): Alibaba, Shandong Hi-Speed, Meituan, Tencent, China Mobile

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a>'s IPO is, arguably, priced reasonably. Yet, no matter how you slice it, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6358:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK)</a> has overshot the mark.</li>
<li>KKR's lock up in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> expires in less than three weeks. It's not ideal stepping in front of fast-moving trains, so challenging to recommend a full-throated short.</li>
<li>Abu Dhabis' ADNOC walks away from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/santos-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:711:1" rel="noopener">Santos Ltd (STO AU)</a>. That was, realistically, the most likely outcome.</li>
</ul>



Zijin Gold (2259 HK)'s IPO is, arguably, priced reasonably. Yet, no matter how you slice it, Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK) has overshot the mark.
KKR's lock up in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) expires in less than three weeks. It's not ideal stepping in front of fast-moving trains, so challenging to recommend a full-throated short.
Abu Dhabis' ADNOC walks away from Santos Ltd (STO AU). That was, realistically, the most likely outcome.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Zijin Mining/Gold, Kokusai Electric, Santos, Krungthai Card

<ul>
<li>I tally 37 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>No new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week. Although <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35025:1" rel="noopener">ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emeco-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8126:1" rel="noopener">Emeco Holdings (EHL AU)</a> appear to be in the crosshairs. </li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smartpay-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45153:1" rel="noopener">SmartPay Holdings (SMP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/humm-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35366:1" rel="noopener">Humm Group (HUM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jinke-smart-services-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29214:1" rel="noopener">Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shibaura-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12704:1" rel="noopener">Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soft99-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18486:1" rel="noopener">Soft99 (4464 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ci-medical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26170:1" rel="noopener">Ci Medical (3540 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 37 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
No new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week. Although ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK) and Emeco Holdings (EHL AU) appear to be in the crosshairs. 
Key updates/news took place on SmartPay Holdings (SMP AU), Humm Group (HUM AU), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Soft99 (4464 JP), and Ci Medical (3540 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Shibaura, ANE, Emeco, SmartPay, Humm, Jinke Smart Service, Soft99, Ci Medical

Hong Kong

China Mobile Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides cellular telecommunications and related services in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong SAR.

Price Gauge
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China Mobile Ltd Spon Adr (CHL US)

Earnings Kickoff Dominates October 2025 Key Events

October 2025 kicks off earnings season – reports from Fast Retailing (9983 JP), ICICI Bank (ICICIB IN) & more – alongside holidays and central bank...

Gaudenz Schneider

Asia/Pacific Stocks Outlook For the Week Sep 29-Oct 3

Multi-week forecasts for Asian indices and stocks show Samsung Electronics, Softbank Group, Toyota Motor, and Nikkei 225 as overbought, while...

Nico Rosti

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Sep 26th): Alibaba, Shandong Hi-Speed, Meituan, Tencent, China Mobile

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Alibaba (9988 HK), Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK), Meituan...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Last Week In Event SPACE: Zijin Mining/Gold, Kokusai Electric, Santos, Krungthai Card

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Shibaura, ANE, Emeco, SmartPay, Humm, Jinke Smart Service, Soft99, Ci Medical

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Earnings Kickoff Dominates October 2025 Key Events

October 2025 kicks off earnings season – reports from Fast Retailing (9983 JP), ICICI Bank (ICICIB IN) & more – alongside holidays and central bank...

Gaudenz Schneider

Asia/Pacific Stocks Outlook For the Week Sep 29-Oct 3

​Multi-week forecasts for Asian indices and stocks show Samsung Electronics, Softbank Group, Toyota Motor, and Nikkei 225 as overbought, while...

Nico Rosti

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Sep 26th): Alibaba, Shandong Hi-Speed, Meituan, Tencent, China Mobile

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Alibaba (9988 HK), Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK), Meituan...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Last Week In Event SPACE: Zijin Mining/Gold, Kokusai Electric, Santos, Krungthai Card

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Shibaura, ANE, Emeco, SmartPay, Humm, Jinke Smart Service, Soft99, Ci Medical

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Multi-week forecasts for Asian indices and stocks show Samsung Electronics, Softbank Group, Toyota Motor, and Nikkei 225 as overbought, while...