IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Today’s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkbn-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:289:1" rel="noopener">HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)</a> monthly update notes that I Squared has completed due diligence and is finalising the terms of a possible preconditional offer. </li>
<li>The I Squared bid will likely be a modest premium to the China Mobile offer with a 50% minimum tendering condition. The key unknown is securing regulatory approvals. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> will first react to an I Squared offer by maintaining terms. However, regardless of whether I Squared secures regulatory approvals, it is likely to match terms. </li>
</ul>


Today’s HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) monthly update notes that I Squared has completed due diligence and is finalising the terms of a possible preconditional offer. 
The I Squared bid will likely be a modest premium to the China Mobile offer with a 50% minimum tendering condition. The key unknown is securing regulatory approvals. 

China Mobile (941 HK) will first react to an I Squared offer by maintaining terms. However, regardless of whether I Squared secures regulatory approvals, it is likely to match terms. 


HKBN (1310 HK): I Squared Inches Closer to a Competing Offer

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong Alpha simulated portfolio returned 0.97% in March outperforming its benchmark by 1.1%.  Since inception the portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 8% to 11%.</li>
<li>The portfolio has generated alpha while maintaining a correlation of 0.8 and a beta of 1.05.  The HK Alpha portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of 2.19 YTD.</li>
<li>On 3/31/25 we sold <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-electric-group-company-limited-d542164d-4d5a-4ce0-b33e-5fe6bc34722c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8777:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Electric Group Company (2727 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citic-securities-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:463:1" rel="noopener">Citic Securities (H) (6030 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sands-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:182:1" rel="noopener">Sands China (1928 HK)</a> , and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunny-optical-technology-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13363:1" rel="noopener">Sunny Optical Technology Group (2382 HK)</a></li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong Alpha simulated portfolio returned 0.97% in March outperforming its benchmark by 1.1%.  Since inception the portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 8% to 11%.
The portfolio has generated alpha while maintaining a correlation of 0.8 and a beta of 1.05.  The HK Alpha portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of 2.19 YTD.
On 3/31/25 we sold Shanghai Electric Group Company (2727 HK) , Citic Securities (H) (6030 HK) , Sands China (1928 HK) , and Sunny Optical Technology Group (2382 HK)


Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight flows of Alibaba, China Mobile, Xiaomi, Guotai Junan, Ke.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight flows of Alibaba, China Mobile, Xiaomi, Guotai Junan, Ke.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (March): $24 Bn Monthly Inflows

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>For the month of March 2025, 13 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$14bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in March was ~53%, with a year-to-date average also of 55%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% .</li>
</ul>


For the month of March 2025, 13 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$14bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in March was ~53%, with a year-to-date average also of 55%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% .


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Mar 2025 Wrap: ENN Energy, Gold Road, Spartan, Aeon Delight, Sinarmas, Topcon

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>AH Premia bounce higher. Spread curve torsion was as expected. Narrow spreads saw Hs suffer more. Wide spreads saw H outperformance. </li>
<li>The last few weeks I said warning signs were flashing and spreads could widen. This week they widened despite big SOUTHBOUND buying.</li>
<li>I expect the right thing to do is hunker down and be flat H/A risk.</li>
</ul>


AH Premia bounce higher. Spread curve torsion was as expected. Narrow spreads saw Hs suffer more. Wide spreads saw H outperformance. 
The last few weeks I said warning signs were flashing and spreads could widen. This week they widened despite big SOUTHBOUND buying.
I expect the right thing to do is hunker down and be flat H/A risk.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 28 Mar 2025):  AH Premia Still Falling; Expect Curve Torsion or AH Widening

Hong Kong

China Mobile Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides cellular telecommunications and related services in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong SAR.

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China Mobile Ltd Spon Adr (CHL US)

HKBN (1310 HK): I Squared Inches Closer to a Competing Offer

China Mobile will first react to an I Squared offer by maintaining terms. However, regardless of whether I Squared secures regulatory approvals, it...

Arun George

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO (March 2025)

The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio returned 0.97% in March outperforming its benchmark by 1.1%. Since inception the portfolio has outperformed Hong...

David Mudd

Hong Kong Connect Flows (March): $24 Bn Monthly Inflows

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for March and highlighted flows for Alibaba, China Mobile, Xiaomi, Guotai Junan, Ke.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Mar 2025 Wrap: ENN Energy, Gold Road, Spartan, Aeon Delight, Sinarmas, Topcon

For the month of March, 13 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$14bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

A/H Premium Tracker (To 28 Mar 2025): AH Premia Still Falling; Expect Curve Torsion or AH Widening

AH Premia were up for the week despite net SB buying. Finally, H/A reflects local market benchmarks. A long trend may now be ending (I'm not clear...

Travis Lundy

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