Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Reportedly buyout firms are "vying for" <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trend-micro-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13172:1" rel="noopener">Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP)</a>. The stock went limit up today. Again. The stock is now getting to the expensive side.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/furukawa-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19521:1" rel="noopener">Furukawa (5715 JP)</a> has changed their capital allocation policy for the third time. The company is a cyclical, and will likely always suffer the indignity of a cyclical multiple.</li>
<li>While it often pays to follows where the family invests when assessing holdco structures, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-international-development-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:809:1" rel="noopener">Melco International (200 HK)</a>'s NAV discount is simply too narrow for a simple holding company structure.</li>
</ul>


Reportedly buyout firms are "vying for" Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP). The stock went limit up today. Again. The stock is now getting to the expensive side.

Furukawa (5715 JP) has changed their capital allocation policy for the third time. The company is a cyclical, and will likely always suffer the indignity of a cyclical multiple.
While it often pays to follows where the family invests when assessing holdco structures, Melco International (200 HK)'s NAV discount is simply too narrow for a simple holding company structure.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Trend Micro, Furukawa, Melco, Ingenia/Lifestyle

<ul>
<li>I tally 59 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>Two new deals discussed this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paragon-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5994:1" rel="noopener">Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kaonavi-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29703:1" rel="noopener">Kaonavi Inc (4435 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40438:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-art-retail-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:401:1" rel="noopener">Sun Art Retail (6808 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkbn-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:289:1" rel="noopener">HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 59 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Two new deals discussed this week: Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP) and Kaonavi Inc (4435 JP).
Key updates/news took place on: Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU), Sun Art Retail (6808 HK), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), and Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Paragon REIT, Kaonavi, Arcadium Lithium, Sun Art Retail, HKBN, and Seven & I

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>There was a HUGE jump in value traded this week - HK$655bn vs ~$300bn for 5-days of trading the last several weeks.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> was the big buy with net buying 7 of 8 days post-CNY and a huge end of week. Tencent was sold.</li>
<li>There appears to be a flight to Chinese equities by foreigners and SB are taking part with risk-on style trading. Watch Hang Seng rebal news this week!</li>
</ul>


There was a HUGE jump in value traded this week - HK$655bn vs ~$300bn for 5-days of trading the last several weeks.

Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) was the big buy with net buying 7 of 8 days post-CNY and a huge end of week. Tencent was sold.
There appears to be a flight to Chinese equities by foreigners and SB are taking part with risk-on style trading. Watch Hang Seng rebal news this week!


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 14 Feb 2025); HUGE Jump in Value Traded, Consumer Names Get a Bid

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pullback-in-sight-for-weak-china-mobile-0941-hk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">our previous, recent insight</a> about <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> we correctly predicted a pullback was about to happen (it happened right after we published the insight).</li>
<li>We said "The stock should end its pull back between 72.85 and 72.25, it can be bought again from these levels. " Actually the pullback ended much earlier (at 74.90).</li>
<li>Then the stock took off furiously, but (tactical consideration, if you were planning to go LONG) it may be too late to enter. Our models say it is WEEKLYoverbought.</li>
</ul>


In our previous, recent insight about China Mobile (941 HK) we correctly predicted a pullback was about to happen (it happened right after we published the insight).
We said "The stock should end its pull back between 72.85 and 72.25, it can be bought again from these levels. " Actually the pullback ended much earlier (at 74.90).
Then the stock took off furiously, but (tactical consideration, if you were planning to go LONG) it may be too late to enter. Our models say it is WEEKLYoverbought.


China Mobile (941 HK) Skyrockets- Is It Too Late to Jump In?

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We believe in 2025 HK/China shall outperform EM. While the undervalued and under-owned characteristic of the China market is well-known, monetizability of China’s technological capabilities has become apparent only recently.</li>
<li>Policy stimuli during the upcoming NPC could catalyze consumer sentiment and market performance. China’s structural hurdles, Debt, Demographics and Deflation, remain. But correct stock and sector selection can generate alpha.</li>
<li>We prefer the internet platforms, consumer discretionary and high dividend yield, the latter largely SOEs. Our “China Twelve” are mostly reasonably valued (low teen PE), with double digit EPS growth.</li>
</ul>


We believe in 2025 HK/China shall outperform EM. While the undervalued and under-owned characteristic of the China market is well-known, monetizability of China’s technological capabilities has become apparent only recently.
Policy stimuli during the upcoming NPC could catalyze consumer sentiment and market performance. China’s structural hurdles, Debt, Demographics and Deflation, remain. But correct stock and sector selection can generate alpha.
We prefer the internet platforms, consumer discretionary and high dividend yield, the latter largely SOEs. Our “China Twelve” are mostly reasonably valued (low teen PE), with double digit EPS growth.


Asian Equities: It's China's Year - Our "China Twelve" In the Year of the Snake

Hong Kong

China Mobile Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides cellular telecommunications and related services in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong SAR.

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China Mobile Ltd Spon Adr (CHL US)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Trend Micro, Furukawa, Melco, Ingenia/Lifestyle

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Paragon REIT, Kaonavi, Arcadium Lithium, Sun Art Retail, HKBN, and Seven & I

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 14 Feb 2025); HUGE Jump in Value Traded, Consumer Names Get a Bid

SOUTHBOUND traded HUGE volumes this past week as the main 3 Hang Seng indices outperformed their A-share main indices quite dramatically, again....

Travis Lundy

China Mobile (941 HK) Skyrockets- Is It Too Late to Jump In?

China Mobile skyrocketed to (nearly) 80 last week, a bullish sign? However it is now overbought according to our model. May be best to tactically...

Nico Rosti

Asian Equities: It's China's Year - Our "China Twelve" In the Year of the Snake

In 25 HK/China should outperform. Monetization of China's tech capability, policy stimulus during NPC are catalysts. Structural issues- Debt,...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Trend Micro, Furukawa, Melco, Ingenia/Lifestyle

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Paragon REIT, Kaonavi, Arcadium Lithium, Sun Art Retail, HKBN, and Seven & I

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 14 Feb 2025); HUGE Jump in Value Traded, Consumer Names Get a Bid

SOUTHBOUND traded HUGE volumes this past week as the main 3 Hang Seng indices outperformed their A-share main indices quite dramatically, again....

Travis Lundy

China Mobile (941 HK) Skyrockets- Is It Too Late to Jump In?

​China Mobile skyrocketed to (nearly) 80 last week, a bullish sign? However it is now overbought according to our model. May be best to tactically...

Nico Rosti

Asian Equities: It's China's Year - Our "China Twelve" In the Year of the Snake

​In 25 HK/China should outperform. Monetization of China's tech capability, policy stimulus during NPC are catalysts. Structural issues- Debt,...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

China Mobile skyrocketed to (nearly) 80 last week, a bullish sign? However it is now overbought according to our model. May be best to tactically...

In 25 HK/China should outperform. Monetization of China's tech capability, policy stimulus during NPC are catalysts. Structural issues- Debt,...