Research from Quam Securities, Quam Securities

Quam Securities Research

Research from Quam Securities

Quam Securities

Since its inception in 1986, Quam Securities Limited (Quam Securities) has grown to become one of the few mid-tier securities brokerages in Hong Kong with global execution capabilities for both private and institutional clients. It boasts a well-established network in Greater China including Taiwan and in major world markets through the Global Alliance Partners (GAP). Quam Securities is well-positioned not only to harness and drive business within the China Tonghai International Financial Limited but also between China and the world markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>MIIT recently released Aug operating data for the telecoms industry in China. On items related to revenues, MIIT reported on YTD basis and, for 8M22, telecoms industry revenue grew 8.2% y/y, which slowed marginally from 8.3% for 7M22.</li><li>Mobile data traffic revenue, which is the single biggest item and accounted for 40.9% of total industry revenue in 8M22, edged up 0.5% y/y.</li><li>Revenue of new businesses, which include IPTV, IDC, big data, cloud and IoT, continued to be the star performer with YTD y/y growth of 34.1%.</li></ul>

MIIT recently released Aug operating data for the telecoms industry in China. On items related to revenues, MIIT reported on YTD basis and, for 8M22, telecoms industry revenue grew 8.2% y/y, which slowed marginally from 8.3% for 7M22.Mobile data traffic revenue, which is the single biggest item and accounted for 40.9% of total industry revenue in 8M22, edged up 0.5% y/y.Revenue of new businesses, which include IPTV, IDC, big data, cloud and IoT, continued to be the star performer with YTD y/y growth of 34.1%.

Tactical Trade Ideas – Telecoms-A Small Step in Revenue Growth, a Giant Leap in Sentiment

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>We regard the domestic telecom sector as a defensive play amid macro- economic pressure, consumer weakness, rising uncertainties, etc.</li><li>We expect China telcos to be the most favorable defensive picks with ample FCF, high dividend yield and potential share repo opportunities.</li><li>China Mobile’s (600941 CH/941 HK) share price grew 12.5%/8.3% YTD. The investors’ appetite seems to confirm our previous prediction “Good compound returns (dividends, share repo) in an environment of uncertainty will become more valued by investors.” </li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

We regard the domestic telecom sector as a defensive play amid macro- economic pressure, consumer weakness, rising uncertainties, etc.We expect China telcos to be the most favorable defensive picks with ample FCF, high dividend yield and potential share repo opportunities.China Mobile’s (600941 CH/941 HK) share price grew 12.5%/8.3% YTD. The investors’ appetite seems to confirm our previous prediction “Good compound returns (dividends, share repo) in an environment of uncertainty will become more valued by investors.” Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China 5G Sector – Expect telecom names continue to show strength in broad market weakness

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Hang Seng H Share Index ETF / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Inside is a recap of movements in the last week relating to the Shanghai and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect facilities, broken down by company and industry.</li>
<li>Overall, the net <em>inflow</em> over the past week was ~US$0.33bn, split (+US$0.16bn) for Shanghai and (+US$0.17bn) for Shenzhen.</li>
<li>The largest inflows were into <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a></strong> and <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a></strong>. The largest outflows were in <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng H Share Index ETF (2828 HK)</a></strong> and <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:127:1" rel="noopener">Geely (175 HK)</a></strong>.</li>
</ul>


Inside is a recap of movements in the last week relating to the Shanghai and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect facilities, broken down by company and industry.
Overall, the net inflow over the past week was ~US$0.33bn, split (+US$0.16bn) for Shanghai and (+US$0.17bn) for Shenzhen.
The largest inflows were into Tencent (700 HK) and China Mobile (941 HK). The largest outflows were in Hang Seng H Share Index ETF (2828 HK) and Geely (175 HK).


Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Southbound Connect: Weekly Moves (15 September 2022)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The September rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituents at 8%. This will lead to large flows.</li>
<li>The largest inflows will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (9888 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sensetime-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34319:1" rel="noopener">SenseTime Group (20 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-shenhua-energy-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:382:1" rel="noopener">China Shenhua Energy (1088 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports (2020 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>The largest outflows will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14895:1" rel="noopener">AIA Group (1299 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunny-optical-tech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13363:1" rel="noopener">Sunny Optical (2382 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">SMIC (981 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-pacific-insurance-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6177:1" rel="noopener">China Pacific Insurance (2601 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-construction-bank-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45:1" rel="noopener">China Construction Bank (939)</a>.</li>
</ul>


The September rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituents at 8%. This will lead to large flows.
The largest inflows will be on Baidu (9888 HK), SenseTime Group (20 HK), China Shenhua Energy (1088 HK), Tencent (700 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) and Anta Sports (2020 HK).
The largest outflows will be on Meituan (3690 HK), AIA Group (1299 HK), Sunny Optical (2382 HK), SMIC (981 HK), China Pacific Insurance (2601 HK) and China Construction Bank (939).


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: September Rebalance Flows Post Capping

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>Short notional in Hong Kong is HK$439bn and has been falling over the last 18 months due to a drop in the market.</li>
<li>In terms of short notional to issue market cap, the Information Technology, Materials, Health Care and Consumer Discretionary sectors are up there, with Communication Services, Real Estate the least shorted.</li>
<li>Over the year, the largest shorts in terms of notional have been built on Xiaomi Corp, Meituan, JD.com, AIA Group Ltd, Postal Savings Bank of China, Orient Overseas, Techtronic Industries.</li>
</ul>


Short notional in Hong Kong is HK$439bn and has been falling over the last 18 months due to a drop in the market.
In terms of short notional to issue market cap, the Information Technology, Materials, Health Care and Consumer Discretionary sectors are up there, with Communication Services, Real Estate the least shorted.
Over the year, the largest shorts in terms of notional have been built on Xiaomi Corp, Meituan, JD.com, AIA Group Ltd, Postal Savings Bank of China, Orient Overseas, Techtronic Industries.


Hong Kong: Where Have Shorts Been Building Up?

Hong Kong

China Mobile Limited provides telecommunication services. The Company offers wireline voice, broadband, roaming, and other related services. China Mobile serves customers in Hong Kong.

Price Gauge
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China Mobile (941 HK)

Tactical Trade Ideas – Telecoms-A Small Step in Revenue Growth, a Giant Leap in Sentiment

Mobile data traffic revenue, which is the single biggest item and accounted for 40.9% of total industry revenue in 8M22, edged up 0.5% y/y.

Quam Securities

China 5G Sector – Expect telecom names continue to show strength in broad market weakness

We expect China telcos to be the most favorable defensive picks with ample FCF, high dividend yield and potential share repo opportunities.

CMB International

Shanghai/Shenzhen Southbound Connect: Weekly Moves (15 September 2022)

Inside is a recap of movements in the Shanghai/Shenzhen-HK Connect. Overall, the net inflow over the past week was ~US$0.33bn, split (+US$0.16bn)...

David Blennerhassett

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: September Rebalance Flows Post Capping

The September rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH indices will use todays close prices for capping. The one-way trade across all stocks across the...

Brian Freitas

Hong Kong: Where Have Shorts Been Building Up?

Short notional in HK has decreased as a result of falling prices. Shorts have been increasing on a lot of stocks over the year. A rally could see...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Tactical Trade Ideas – Telecoms-A Small Step in Revenue Growth, a Giant Leap in Sentiment

Mobile data traffic revenue, which is the single biggest item and accounted for 40.9% of total industry revenue in 8M22, edged up 0.5% y/y.

Quam Securities

China 5G Sector – Expect telecom names continue to show strength in broad market weakness

We expect China telcos to be the most favorable defensive picks with ample FCF, high dividend yield and potential share repo opportunities.

CMB International

Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Southbound Connect: Weekly Moves (15 September 2022)

Inside is a recap of movements in the Shanghai/Shenzhen-HK Connect. Overall, the net inflow over the past week was ~US$0.33bn, split (+US$0.16bn)...

David Blennerhassett

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: September Rebalance Flows Post Capping

The September rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH indices will use todays close prices for capping. The one-way trade across all stocks across the...

Brian Freitas

Hong Kong: Where Have Shorts Been Building Up?

Short notional in HK has decreased as a result of falling prices. Shorts have been increasing on a lot of stocks over the year. A rally could see...

Brian Freitas

Shanghai/Shenzhen Southbound Connect: Weekly Moves (15 September 2022)