Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Brazil gold acquisition improves diversification and earnings stability; deal appears cash-funded and value-accretive at current gold prices.</li>
<li>Asset quality improves on a risk-adjusted basis, though Brazilian gold mines are higher-cost and shorter-life than tier-1 peers.</li>
<li>Valuation already reflects elevated copper and gold prices; upside now depends on commodity price persistence, not rerating.</li>
</ul>


Brazil gold acquisition improves diversification and earnings stability; deal appears cash-funded and value-accretive at current gold prices.
Asset quality improves on a risk-adjusted basis, though Brazilian gold mines are higher-cost and shorter-life than tier-1 peers.
Valuation already reflects elevated copper and gold prices; upside now depends on commodity price persistence, not rerating.


CMOC Group (603993 CH): Brazil Gold Deal Lifts Diversification; Valuation Tied to Metals Regime

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cmoc-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28168:1" rel="noopener">CMOC (603993 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sungrow-power-supply-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4255:1" rel="noopener">Sungrow Power Supply (300274 CH)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maanshan-dingtai-rare-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4128:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding (002352 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-jiangsu-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27216:1" rel="noopener">Bank of Jiangsu (600919 CH)</a> in the ETFs at the close on 19 December.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade between 0.1-0.5 days of ADV in the constituent changes.</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes by a big margin over the last 6 months. After a period of underperformance in November, the adds have started moving higher again.</li>
</ul>



CMOC (603993 CH) and Sungrow Power Supply (300274 CH) will replace S.F. Holding (002352 CH) and Bank of Jiangsu (600919 CH) in the ETFs at the close on 19 December.
Passive trackers will need to trade between 0.1-0.5 days of ADV in the constituent changes.
The adds have outperformed the deletes by a big margin over the last 6 months. After a period of underperformance in November, the adds have started moving higher again.


China A50 ETF Rebalance: Two Sets of Changes

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>In Depth: How an Acclaimed Education Experiment in Beijing Ended Up on the Brink</li><li>On the newly renovated campus of ETU Enlighten School, the laughter of a dozen students playing on a crisp early winter day belies a profound crisis.</li><li>Inside, their teachers are waiting on months of unpaid salaries.</li></ul>

In Depth: How an Acclaimed Education Experiment in Beijing Ended Up on the BrinkOn the newly renovated campus of ETU Enlighten School, the laughter of a dozen students playing on a crisp early winter day belies a profound crisis.Inside, their teachers are waiting on months of unpaid salaries.

CX Daily: How an Acclaimed Education Experiment in Beijing Ended Up on the Brink 

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Active conviction rising: China Industrials allocations are nearing all-time highs, with record participation and expanding net overweights despite a declining MSCI EM benchmark weight.</li>
<li>Clear conviction overweight: 76% of GEM funds are overweight China &amp; HK Industrials, making it the strongest country/sector conviction play across the EM universe.</li>
<li>Broadening beyond CATL: While CATL remains dominant, ownership is widening to emerging names, even as second-tier stocks show sharper rotations and selective positioning.</li>
</ul>


Active conviction rising: China Industrials allocations are nearing all-time highs, with record participation and expanding net overweights despite a declining MSCI EM benchmark weight.
Clear conviction overweight: 76% of GEM funds are overweight China &amp; HK Industrials, making it the strongest country/sector conviction play across the EM universe.
Broadening beyond CATL: While CATL remains dominant, ownership is widening to emerging names, even as second-tier stocks show sharper rotations and selective positioning.


China & HK Industrials: EM’s Key Overweight Grows Stronger

China Molybdenum Co Ltd H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>CMOC’s H1 2025 midpoint guidance signals a ~60% YoY surge in net profit, supported by higher copper and cobalt output and pricing.</li>
<li>With H1 tracking &gt;50% of full-year profit, FY2025 earnings could be revised 10–18% higher from internal estimates, with EPS approaching RMB 0.85.</li>
<li>Despite strong delivery, CMOC trades at ~10x forward earnings and ~4.5x EV/EBITDA; a rerating may depend on easing DRC constraints and sustained price tailwinds.</li>
</ul>


CMOC’s H1 2025 midpoint guidance signals a ~60% YoY surge in net profit, supported by higher copper and cobalt output and pricing.
With H1 tracking &gt;50% of full-year profit, FY2025 earnings could be revised 10–18% higher from internal estimates, with EPS approaching RMB 0.85.
Despite strong delivery, CMOC trades at ~10x forward earnings and ~4.5x EV/EBITDA; a rerating may depend on easing DRC constraints and sustained price tailwinds.


CMOC Group Ltd (SEHK: 3993 | SSE: 603993) – H1 Guidance Points to Strong Upside

China

China Molybdenum Co.,Ltd. operates as a mineral mining and exploration company. The Company explores molybdenum, tungsten, niobium, cobalt, copper, and more. China Molybdenum conducts businesses worldwide.

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China Molybdenum Co Ltd H (3993 HK)

CMOC Group (603993 CH): Brazil Gold Deal Lifts Diversification; Valuation Tied to Metals Regime

Acquisition of Brazilian gold mines boosts diversification and earnings stability, but valuation already accounts for high commodity prices....

Rahul Jain

China A50 ETF Rebalance: Two Sets of Changes

CMOC and Sungrow Power will replace SF Holdings and Bank of Jiangsu in the A50 ETFs in December. Both sets of changes were expected and passive...

Brian Freitas

CX Daily: How an Acclaimed Education Experiment in Beijing Ended Up on the Brink

In Depth: How an Acclaimed Education Experiment in Beijing Ended Up on the Brink On the newly renovated campus of ETU Enlighten...

Caixin Global

China & HK Industrials: EM’s Key Overweight Grows Stronger

China Industrials are back in focus. Active EM managers are increasing exposure, participation is at record highs, and conviction is spreading...

Steven Holden

CMOC Group Ltd (SEHK: 3993 | SSE: 603993) – H1 Guidance Points to Strong Upside

CMOC’s stock rally post its August 22, 2025, H1 results is driven by a 60% net profit surge to CNY 8.67 billion, fueled by a 20.7% cobalt output...

Rahul Jain

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CMOC Group (603993 CH): Brazil Gold Deal Lifts Diversification; Valuation Tied to Metals Regime

​Acquisition of Brazilian gold mines boosts diversification and earnings stability, but valuation already accounts for high commodity prices....

Rahul Jain

China A50 ETF Rebalance: Two Sets of Changes

CMOC and Sungrow Power will replace SF Holdings and Bank of Jiangsu in the A50 ETFs in December. Both sets of changes were expected and passive...

Brian Freitas

CX Daily: How an Acclaimed Education Experiment in Beijing Ended Up on the Brink

In Depth: How an Acclaimed Education Experiment in Beijing Ended Up on the Brink On the newly renovated campus of ETU Enlighten...

Caixin Global

China & HK Industrials: EM’s Key Overweight Grows Stronger

China Industrials are back in focus. Active EM managers are increasing exposure, participation is at record highs, and conviction is spreading...

Steven Holden

CMOC Group Ltd (SEHK: 3993 | SSE: 603993) – H1 Guidance Points to Strong Upside

CMOC’s stock rally post its August 22, 2025, H1 results is driven by a 60% net profit surge to CNY 8.67 billion, fueled by a 20.7% cobalt output...

Rahul Jain

Acquisition of Brazilian gold mines boosts diversification and earnings stability, but valuation already accounts for high commodity prices....