HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We continued to be cautious on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-gas-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14315:1" rel="noopener">China Gas Holdings (384 HK)</a> given the challenges faced. It guided for a flat dollar margin in FY23 but we think this is optimistic.</li>
<li>Connection fees are likely to stay under pressure after a 42.1% decline in FY22. It only projects 2.6-2.9m new residential connections for FY23, compared with 2.9m in FY22.</li>
<li>Although China Gas is now the cheapest Hong Kong-listed China gas utilities company, it takes time to regain market confidence. At similar valuation, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kunlun-energy-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10054:1" rel="noopener">Kunlun Energy (135 HK)</a> looks more interesting. </li>
</ul>


We continued to be cautious on China Gas Holdings (384 HK) given the challenges faced. It guided for a flat dollar margin in FY23 but we think this is optimistic.
Connection fees are likely to stay under pressure after a 42.1% decline in FY22. It only projects 2.6-2.9m new residential connections for FY23, compared with 2.9m in FY22.
Although China Gas is now the cheapest Hong Kong-listed China gas utilities company, it takes time to regain market confidence. At similar valuation, Kunlun Energy (135 HK) looks more interesting. 


China Gas Holdings (384 HK): Not Giving It the Benefit of Doubt

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The scheme document is out with the Court meeting scheduled for 10 June. The IFA considers the offer to be fair and reasonable. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suchuang-gas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:304:1" rel="noopener">Suchuang Gas Corp (1430 HK)</a> remains suspended.</li>
<li>Key conditions are the headcount test and approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). </li>
<li>Excluding the irrecovables, no shareholder holds a blocking stake. As the timeframe to fulfil the resumption guidance remains highly uncertain, the offer is a welcome exit opportunity. </li>
</ul>


The scheme document is out with the Court meeting scheduled for 10 June. The IFA considers the offer to be fair and reasonable. Suchuang Gas Corp (1430 HK) remains suspended.
Key conditions are the headcount test and approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). 
Excluding the irrecovables, no shareholder holds a blocking stake. As the timeframe to fulfil the resumption guidance remains highly uncertain, the offer is a welcome exit opportunity. 


Suchuang Gas’ Scheme Meeting on 10 June Is a Welcome Exit from the Ongoing Share Suspension

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suchuang-gas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:304:1" rel="noopener">Suchuang Gas Corp (1430 HK)</a></strong>'s Scheme Document is now out. The Scheme Meeting will be held on the 10th June with expected payment on or before the 21 June. </li>
<li>The Independent Financial Advisor (Essence International) has concluded the offer by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-gas-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20525:1" rel="noopener"><strong>CR Gas (1193 HK)</strong></a> is fair and reasonable. </li>
<li>The pain is almost over for shareholders. This is as good a deal one can expect under the circumstances. Shareholders should vote through the Offer resolutions and pocket the cash. </li>
</ul>



Suchuang Gas Corp (1430 HK)'s Scheme Document is now out. The Scheme Meeting will be held on the 10th June with expected payment on or before the 21 June. 
The Independent Financial Advisor (Essence International) has concluded the offer by CR Gas (1193 HK) is fair and reasonable. 
The pain is almost over for shareholders. This is as good a deal one can expect under the circumstances. Shareholders should vote through the Offer resolutions and pocket the cash. 


Suchuang Gas (1430 HK): 10th June Court Meeting As Shares Remain Suspended

<ul>
<li>Healthy 17.2% growth in 1Q22 net profit of Kunlun Gas, the most important subsidiary of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kunlun-energy-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10054:1" rel="noopener">Kunlun Energy (135 HK)</a>, provides a welcoming evidence to ease market concerns on costs.  </li>
<li>While gross margin was down 0.2pp YoY, it expanded by 0.4pp QoQ. Key cost items including selling, administrative and R&amp;D are all under control, boosting EBIT margin by 0.5pp YoY.</li>
<li>1Q22 is a record quarter for Kunlun Gas, and gearing stays comfortable with strong operating cash flow. We believe such set of result signals good 1Q22 for Kunlun Energy. </li>
</ul>


Healthy 17.2% growth in 1Q22 net profit of Kunlun Gas, the most important subsidiary of Kunlun Energy (135 HK), provides a welcoming evidence to ease market concerns on costs.  
While gross margin was down 0.2pp YoY, it expanded by 0.4pp QoQ. Key cost items including selling, administrative and R&amp;D are all under control, boosting EBIT margin by 0.5pp YoY.
1Q22 is a record quarter for Kunlun Gas, and gearing stays comfortable with strong operating cash flow. We believe such set of result signals good 1Q22 for Kunlun Energy. 


Kunlun Energy (135 HK): A Record Quarter for Kunlun Gas

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-gas-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20525:1" rel="noopener">CR Gas (1193 HK)</a>’s privatisation bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suchuang-gas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:304:1" rel="noopener">Suchuang Gas Corp (1430 HK)</a> was derailed by the trading suspension due to the disclosure of previously unaccounted for pledges/guarantees by subsidiaries.</li>
<li>The controlling shareholders have attempted to keep the offer alive by agreeing to fully indemnify CR Gas for losses related to the pledges/guarantees.</li>
<li>The long stop date of the offer was extended to 31 August 2022. The key risk is that the timeframe to fulfil the resumption guidance exceeds the long stop date. </li>
</ul>



CR Gas (1193 HK)’s privatisation bid for Suchuang Gas Corp (1430 HK) was derailed by the trading suspension due to the disclosure of previously unaccounted for pledges/guarantees by subsidiaries.
The controlling shareholders have attempted to keep the offer alive by agreeing to fully indemnify CR Gas for losses related to the pledges/guarantees.
The long stop date of the offer was extended to 31 August 2022. The key risk is that the timeframe to fulfil the resumption guidance exceeds the long stop date. 


Suchuang Gas’ Privatisation Offer in Limbo as Additional Resumption Guidance Disclosed

Hong Kong

China Resources Gas Group Limited is an investment holding company primarily engaged in the sale and distribution of natural and liquefied gas, and the construction and connection of gas pipelines. The company also offers comprehensive services including the sale of gas appliances and related products, and provides design, construction, consultancy, and management services for gas connection projects, as well as operating gas stations. It was incorporated in 1994 and is based in Wan Chai, Hong Kong.

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China Resources Gas (1193 HK)

China Gas Holdings (384 HK): Not Giving It the Benefit of Doubt

China Gas has a diasppointing FY22 and we think its operating and financial guidances for FY23 are likely to be optimistic. We prefer Kunlun Energy...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Suchuang Gas (1430 HK): 10th June Court Meeting As Shares Remain Suspended

Now that the Scheme Booklet is despatched - which needs to be signed off by the SFC - the SFC sanctions Suchaung Gas' privatisation provided the...

David Blennerhassett

Kunlun Energy (135 HK): A Record Quarter for Kunlun Gas

We view Kunlun Gas' healthy 1Q22 result a positive pointer to Kunlun Energy's profit trend in the quarter. It is welcoming to note only mild YoY...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Suchuang Gas’ Privatisation Offer in Limbo as Additional Resumption Guidance Disclosed

The controlling shareholders have kept the offer alive by agreeing to indemnify CR Gas for losses. The key risk is that the timeframe to fulfil the...

Arun George

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China Gas Holdings (384 HK): Not Giving It the Benefit of Doubt

China Gas has a diasppointing FY22 and we think its operating and financial guidances for FY23 are likely to be optimistic. We prefer Kunlun Energy...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Suchuang Gas’ Scheme Meeting on 10 June Is a Welcome Exit from the Ongoing Share Suspension

The cash alternative is HK$2.50 per share. The Court meeting is on 10 June. As the timeframe to fulfil the resumption guidance remains highly...

Arun George

Suchuang Gas (1430 HK): 10th June Court Meeting As Shares Remain Suspended

Now that the Scheme Booklet is despatched - which needs to be signed off by the SFC - the SFC sanctions Suchaung Gas' privatisation provided the...

David Blennerhassett

Kunlun Energy (135 HK): A Record Quarter for Kunlun Gas

We view Kunlun Gas' healthy 1Q22 result a positive pointer to Kunlun Energy's profit trend in the quarter. It is welcoming to note only mild YoY...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Suchuang Gas’ Privatisation Offer in Limbo as Additional Resumption Guidance Disclosed

The controlling shareholders have kept the offer alive by agreeing to indemnify CR Gas for losses. The key risk is that the timeframe to fulfil the...

Arun George