Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In this note, we look at the latest May/June data, policy, and sentiment in China housing markets, with some reflections on where things are vs the expectations end of 2024. </li>
<li>"Less negative" summarises the data, while "Stabilise it" captures the policy approach.</li>
<li>New home sales are in line with our forecast, and in the upper range of group forecasts from China Property Outlook, but there are some new data caveats.</li>
</ul>


In this note, we look at the latest May/June data, policy, and sentiment in China housing markets, with some reflections on where things are vs the expectations end of 2024. 
"Less negative" summarises the data, while "Stabilise it" captures the policy approach.
New home sales are in line with our forecast, and in the upper range of group forecasts from China Property Outlook, but there are some new data caveats.


<ul>
<li>With full June and some July 2026 data, we take a look at where things stand in China's housing markets and compare with expectations from the end of 2025.</li>
<li>The primary and secondary markets are now framed as one, the 'Support not Stimulus' policy theme continues, with city-level differences; in contrast to the mainland, the Hong Kong rebound continues. </li>
<li>The new REF China Housing Sentiment Index has deteriorated recently but remains in an upward trend.</li>
</ul>


With full June and some July 2026 data, we take a look at where things stand in China's housing markets and compare with expectations from the end of 2025.
The primary and secondary markets are now framed as one, the 'Support not Stimulus' policy theme continues, with city-level differences; in contrast to the mainland, the Hong Kong rebound continues. 
The new REF China Housing Sentiment Index has deteriorated recently but remains in an upward trend.


<ul>
<li>In this note, we look at the issue of new homes that were pre-sold by developers but not yet delivered as developers struggled financially.</li>
<li>The estimates of the scale of the problem are wide, and many are rooted in likely misinterpretation of the official data.</li>
<li>The scale of the true problem is likely much smaller than most estimates and there are new indicators suggesting so.</li>
</ul>


In this note, we look at the issue of new homes that were pre-sold by developers but not yet delivered as developers struggled financially.
The estimates of the scale of the problem are wide, and many are rooted in likely misinterpretation of the official data.
The scale of the true problem is likely much smaller than most estimates and there are new indicators suggesting so.


China Property - Is The Delivery Of New Homes (Pre-Sold Pre-2022) Problem Solved?

Listed Real Estate Asia, KT Capital Group

Jacob Cheng

Listed Real Estate Asia

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

<ul>
<li>We are turning bullish on the sector.  We think there are several structural drivers that will improve the sector as a whole, both on demand and supply side</li>
<li>Continued low onshore rates will boost the property market as well as reduce funding cost for developers.  The decline in new start will also help support home prices</li>
<li>Valuation is still almost historical low, we think the downside is relatively limited</li>
</ul>


We are turning bullish on the sector.  We think there are several structural drivers that will improve the sector as a whole, both on demand and supply side
Continued low onshore rates will boost the property market as well as reduce funding cost for developers.  The decline in new start will also help support home prices
Valuation is still almost historical low, we think the downside is relatively limited


China Prop Short Note: Turning Bullish on “lower Rates for Longer” & Improving Sector Fundamentals

<ul>
<li>Premier Li delivered the Government Work Report and announced key economic targets. We think there is no surprise to the market</li>
<li>Regarding property front, government re-iterated its intention and willingness to contain property developer debt default risks, as seen by China Vanke case</li>
<li>Valuation is undemanding.  But we continue to be bearish, and we monitor the leading indicators such as land sales and new starts</li>
</ul>


Premier Li delivered the Government Work Report and announced key economic targets. We think there is no surprise to the market
Regarding property front, government re-iterated its intention and willingness to contain property developer debt default risks, as seen by China Vanke case
Valuation is undemanding.  But we continue to be bearish, and we monitor the leading indicators such as land sales and new starts


Takeaway from Two Sessions and Latest Update Re China Property – Monitor Leading Indicators

Hong Kong

China Resources Land is a leading property developer, investor, and operator focused on urban construction and operation in Mainland China. The company develops and manages residential properties, shopping malls, offices, and hotels, and also engages in asset-light management and eco-system elementary businesses. It was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

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China Resources Land (1109 HK)

China Housing - A Mid-Year Check

In this note, we look at the latest May/June data, policy, and sentiment in China housing markets, with some reflections on where things are vs the...

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing - A Mid-Year Check 2026

With full June and some July 2026 data, we take a look at where things stand in China's housing markets and compare with expectations from the end...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property - Is The Delivery Of New Homes (Pre-Sold Pre-2022) Problem Solved?

In this note, we look at the issue of new homes that were pre-sold by developers but not yet delivered as developers struggled financially.

Robert Ciemniak

China Prop Short Note: Turning Bullish on “lower Rates for Longer” & Improving Sector Fundamentals

We turn bullish on China property, on the back of several structural tailwinds: rates lower for longer to improve mortgage rate and funding cost,...

Jacob Cheng

Takeaway from Two Sessions and Latest Update Re China Property – Monitor Leading Indicators

We provided an update after China's Two Sessions and government policy on China property. There are increasing signs of government's support, but...

Jacob Cheng

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)