Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The slide in the stock price over the last few months could see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wharf-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:51:1" rel="noopener">Wharf Holdings (4 HK)</a> deleted from a global index at the May rebalance.</li>
<li>The impact of the index deletion will be large in terms of ADV. Shorts have been increasing but positioning appears to be far smaller than the estimated passive selling.</li>
<li>The stock could drop further over the next week or two, but value buyers could then emerge as the stock trades cheaper than a lot of its peers.</li>
</ul>


The slide in the stock price over the last few months could see Wharf Holdings (4 HK) deleted from a global index at the May rebalance.
The impact of the index deletion will be large in terms of ADV. Shorts have been increasing but positioning appears to be far smaller than the estimated passive selling.
The stock could drop further over the next week or two, but value buyers could then emerge as the stock trades cheaper than a lot of its peers.


Wharf Holdings (4 HK): Increased Shorts; Small Positioning for The (Potential) Global Index Deletion

Analyst

Steve

Equity Bottom-Up

Midea Real Estate Holding / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-real-estate-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27450:1" rel="noopener">Midea Real Estate Holding (3990 HK)</a> announced last night a proposal for distribution in specie of the property development business to shareholders.</li>
<li>The proposal allows shareholders to select between receiving pro rata shares in the PrivateCo, or the cash alternative at HKD5.90 per share, a 57% premium to last close at HKD3.75. </li>
<li>I believe this is a good deal for minority shareholders.  The company (ex. property development business) will continue to be listed on the HKSE after the distribution.  </li>
</ul>



Midea Real Estate Holding (3990 HK) announced last night a proposal for distribution in specie of the property development business to shareholders.
The proposal allows shareholders to select between receiving pro rata shares in the PrivateCo, or the cash alternative at HKD5.90 per share, a 57% premium to last close at HKD3.75. 
I believe this is a good deal for minority shareholders.  The company (ex. property development business) will continue to be listed on the HKSE after the distribution.  


Midea Real Estate (3990 HK):  Divesting Property Development Business (Cash Option At 57% Premium)

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

<ul>
<li>We screen the Mainland Securities ahead of the HSCEI review result, due on 20 Nov 2026 after market close.</li>
<li>One ADD and one DELETE are screened as high-conviction calls this cycle.</li>
<li>We also include one mid-conviction ADD and one low-conviction DELETE.</li>
</ul>


We screen the Mainland Securities ahead of the HSCEI review result, due on 20 Nov 2026 after market close.
One ADD and one DELETE are screened as high-conviction calls this cycle.
We also include one mid-conviction ADD and one low-conviction DELETE.


Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

China Resources Land / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-land-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:418:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Land (1109 HK)</a> is among the stocks that will be subject to significant passive selling flows at the end of May, according to recent insights by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> .</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hk-connect-flows-weekly-apr-30th-alibaba-china-mobile-cnooc-tencent-xiaomi-ccb-cig-shanghai" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Connect flows data</a> posted by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/ke-yan-cfa-frm" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:9" rel="noopener">Ke Yan</a> suggests mainland investors are quietly rotating out of China Resources Land (1109 HK) ahead of the rebalance, front-running the forced passive selling.  </li>
<li>The stock hasn't visibly broken down yet (5 weeks straight up), our model predicts a high-prob reversal from this week, with support at HK$31.10–30.54 found after 2 weeks.</li>
</ul>



China Resources Land (1109 HK) is among the stocks that will be subject to significant passive selling flows at the end of May, according to recent insights by Brian Freitas .

Connect flows data posted by Ke Yan suggests mainland investors are quietly rotating out of China Resources Land (1109 HK) ahead of the rebalance, front-running the forced passive selling.  
The stock hasn't visibly broken down yet (5 weeks straight up), our model predicts a high-prob reversal from this week, with support at HK$31.10–30.54 found after 2 weeks.


China Resources Land (1109 HK) Tactical Outlook: Passive Selling May Accelerate Now

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>HK Alpha portfolio gained 3.45% in August, outperforming its benchmark by 2.67%.  Since inception, the portfolio has outperformed HK indexes by 60% to 84%. HK ALPHA is up 14.35% YTD.</li>
<li>The Sharpe ratio stands at 1.21, compared with a benchmark of 0.68 since inception.  This higher Sharpe ratio is driven by excess alpha, which represents more than 50% of returns.</li>
<li>The portfolio gained in the healthcare, industrial, and technology sectors in August, while utilities and telecom exposure dragged on performance.</li>
</ul>


HK Alpha portfolio gained 3.45% in August, outperforming its benchmark by 2.67%.  Since inception, the portfolio has outperformed HK indexes by 60% to 84%. HK ALPHA is up 14.35% YTD.
The Sharpe ratio stands at 1.21, compared with a benchmark of 0.68 since inception.  This higher Sharpe ratio is driven by excess alpha, which represents more than 50% of returns.
The portfolio gained in the healthcare, industrial, and technology sectors in August, while utilities and telecom exposure dragged on performance.


Hong Kong

China Resources Land is a leading property developer, investor, and operator focused on urban construction and operation in Mainland China. The company develops and manages residential properties, shopping malls, offices, and hotels, and also engages in asset-light management and eco-system elementary businesses. It was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

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China Resources Land (1109 HK)

Wharf Holdings (4 HK): Increased Shorts; Small Positioning for The (Potential) Global Index Deletion

Wharf Holdings could be deleted from a global index in May. The stock has underperformed peers and trades cheaper. Shorts have increased and...

Brian Freitas

Midea Real Estate (3990 HK): Divesting Property Development Business (Cash Option At 57% Premium)

Midea Real Estate (3990 HK) announced last night a proposal for distribution of the property development business to shareholders. The cash...

Steve

HSCEI Dec 2026 Index Rebalance Forecast

We expect Shenzhou to be deleted below rank 60 and Hua Hong Grace to fill its seat, while a mid-conviction WuXi Bio ADD would also see ZTO deleted.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM