Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In October, the sluggish recovery in outbound tourism demand continued</li>
<li>Outbound capacity growth also timid; but domestic recovery is mostly complete</li>
<li>As growth stock, Trip.com's disappointed; maybe it can attract value investors?</li>
</ul>


In October, the sluggish recovery in outbound tourism demand continued
Outbound capacity growth also timid; but domestic recovery is mostly complete
As growth stock, Trip.com's disappointed; maybe it can attract value investors?


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Recovery Still Sluggish | Trip.com as Value Name | (November 2023)

Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China is expanding its list of countries allowed to enter visa-free. A good gesture to make China more friendly to foreigners and one step closer to global best practices </li>
<li>Chinese major airlines and airports can become more desirable global aviation hubs, assuming they play their cards right </li>
<li>Doubt much can change in a year, but the seeds are sown for stiffer competition for airlines with a hub-and-spoke strategy in North Asia</li>
</ul>


China is expanding its list of countries allowed to enter visa-free. A good gesture to make China more friendly to foreigners and one step closer to global best practices 
Chinese major airlines and airports can become more desirable global aviation hubs, assuming they play their cards right 
Doubt much can change in a year, but the seeds are sown for stiffer competition for airlines with a hub-and-spoke strategy in North Asia


China to Provide Visa-Free for Six Countries - Why and The (Possible) Impact

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cirrus-aircraft" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39858:1" rel="noopener">Cirrus Aircraft (0153126D US)</a> is looking to raise up to US$200m in its upcoming HK IPO.</li>
<li>Cirrus Aircraft designs, develops, manufactures, and sells premium aircrafts. Its two aircraft product lines, the SR2X Series and the Vision Jet, are currently certified and validated in over 60 countries.</li>
<li>We had covered the company’s performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about its PHIP updates.</li>
</ul>



Cirrus Aircraft (0153126D US) is looking to raise up to US$200m in its upcoming HK IPO.
Cirrus Aircraft designs, develops, manufactures, and sells premium aircrafts. Its two aircraft product lines, the SR2X Series and the Vision Jet, are currently certified and validated in over 60 countries.
We had covered the company’s performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about its PHIP updates.


Cirrus Aircraft Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - Increased Customer Demand Continues to Drive Growth

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener"></a>With P/B back to the 5-year average of 1.9x but ROE surpassing the last five years, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (753 HK)</a> is our High Conviction pick for 2024.</li>
<li>Lower US interest rates next year will reduce interest expenses as 18.7% of debt is USD-denominated. Potential Rmb appreciation vs. USD may bring significant exchange gain too.</li>
<li>Supportive government policies will further drive domestic traffic. For international traffic, more capacity resumption will power recovery. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a> is another profit accelerator.</li>
</ul>



With P/B back to the 5-year average of 1.9x but ROE surpassing the last five years, Air China Ltd (753 HK) is our High Conviction pick for 2024.
Lower US interest rates next year will reduce interest expenses as 18.7% of debt is USD-denominated. Potential Rmb appreciation vs. USD may bring significant exchange gain too.
Supportive government policies will further drive domestic traffic. For international traffic, more capacity resumption will power recovery. Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK) is another profit accelerator.


2024 High Conviction: Air China (753 HK) - What Comes Down Must Go Up

<ul>
<li>Trip.com reported strong Q3 earnings, reflecting 2023's ongoing tourism revival</li>
<li>Net Income beat expectations, and company made progress on expense control</li>
<li>But we don't see "game-changing" numbers in Trip.com's latest earnings release</li>
</ul>


Trip.com reported strong Q3 earnings, reflecting 2023's ongoing tourism revival
Net Income beat expectations, and company made progress on expense control
But we don't see "game-changing" numbers in Trip.com's latest earnings release


Trip.com Q3 Quick Take: Net Inc > Consensus | Progress on Expenses | But Not a Game-Changer

China

China Southern Airlines Company Limited provides air transportation services. The Company offers passenger and freight air transportation services, aviation equipment maintenance and aircraft leasing services. Shanghai Airlines also provides ticket and hotel booking and consulting services. China Southern Airlines provides services worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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China Southern Airlines (600029 CH)

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Recovery Still Sluggish | Trip.com as Value Name | (November 2023)

October outbound demand increased vs September but remains below pre-pandemic levels. We've long viewed Trip.com negatively as a growth stock, but...

Tracking Traffic

China to Provide Visa-Free for Six Countries - Why and The (Possible) Impact

China is opening visa-free entry for more countries, aiming to improve its global image and become a preferred aviation hub in North Asia. Could...

Mohshin Aziz

Cirrus Aircraft Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - Increased Customer Demand Continues to Drive Growth

Cirrus Aircraft (0153126D US) is looking to raise up to US$200m in its upcoming HK IPO. We had covered the company’s performance in our earlier...

Ethan Aw

2024 High Conviction: Air China (753 HK) - What Comes Down Must Go Up

Air China will have a solid ROE recovery and an inexpensive P/B in 2024. It will benefit from lower US rate and Rmb appreciation. Meanwhile,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Trip.com Q3 Quick Take: Net Inc > Consensus | Progress on Expenses | But Not a Game-Changer

Trip.com reported Q323 results that featured strong top-line growth, sharp Y/Y improvement in margins, and progress on cost control. But its Q323...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Recovery Still Sluggish | Trip.com as Value Name | (November 2023)

October outbound demand increased vs September but remains below pre-pandemic levels. We've long viewed Trip.com negatively as a growth stock, but...

Tracking Traffic

China to Provide Visa-Free for Six Countries - Why and The (Possible) Impact

​China is opening visa-free entry for more countries, aiming to improve its global image and become a preferred aviation hub in North Asia. Could...

Mohshin Aziz

Cirrus Aircraft Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - Increased Customer Demand Continues to Drive Growth

Cirrus Aircraft (0153126D US) is looking to raise up to US$200m in its upcoming HK IPO. We had covered the company’s performance in our earlier...

Ethan Aw

2024 High Conviction: Air China (753 HK) - What Comes Down Must Go Up

​Air China will have a solid ROE recovery and an inexpensive P/B in 2024. It will benefit from lower US rate and Rmb appreciation. Meanwhile,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Trip.com Q3 Quick Take: Net Inc > Consensus | Progress on Expenses | But Not a Game-Changer

Trip.com reported Q323 results that featured strong top-line growth, sharp Y/Y improvement in margins, and progress on cost control. But its Q323...

Tracking Traffic

China is opening visa-free entry for more countries, aiming to improve its global image and become a preferred aviation hub in North Asia. Could...

Air China will have a solid ROE recovery and an inexpensive P/B in 2024. It will benefit from lower US rate and Rmb appreciation. Meanwhile,...