HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport / Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangzhou-baiyun-international-airport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10819:1" rel="noopener">Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport (600004 CH)</a> (GBIA) has another solid month in Nov, continuing the promising trend in Oct and logging a massive 20.2% YoY surge in domestic aircraft movement and a 4.8% leap in domestic passenger traffic. Moreover, the decline in cargo and mail throughput has narrowed to 1.3% YoY only, the best in the last 5 months. We believe this set of traffic performance signals that there is no abatement in its growth paces.Despite the positive trend, GBIA has underperformed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-international-airport-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6511:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai International Airport (600009 CH)</a> (SIAC) by a significant 16.4pp YTD. It is true that the construction of a new Guangzhou airport and the closer co-operation between the Hong Kong airport and Zhuhai airport are challenges in the future. However, with a favourable base for YoY comparison in 1Q21 and the sustained strength in domestic traffic in the next few months, we believe there is room for GBIA to narrow its performance gap against SIAC in the near term.

Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport (600004 CH) (GBIA) has another solid month in Nov, continuing the promising trend in Oct and logging a massive 20.2% YoY surge in domestic aircraft movement and a 4.8% leap in domestic passenger traffic. Moreover, the decline in cargo and mail throughput has narrowed to 1.3% YoY only, the best in the last 5 months. We believe this set of traffic performance signals that there is no abatement in its growth paces.Despite the positive trend, GBIA has underperformed Shanghai International Airport (600009 CH) (SIAC) by a significant 16.4pp YTD. It is true that the construction of a new Guangzhou airport and the closer co-operation between the Hong Kong airport and Zhuhai airport are challenges in the future. However, with a favourable base for YoY comparison in 1Q21 and the sustained strength in domestic traffic in the next few months, we believe there is room for GBIA to narrow its performance gap against SIAC in the near term.

Guangzhou Baiyun Intl Airport (600004 CH): No Abatement in Growth Paces

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

In this new monthly research product we introduce three Long / Short pair trade ideas in Chinese travel, Chinese express and logistics, and global container shipping. 
These pair trade ideas are based mainly on expected fundamental change in each segment over the next 6-12 months. We'll focus on Asia, but occasionally we may place non-Asian names on either side of our pair ideas. Besides examining key secular and cyclical trends in each segment, we will consider relative valuations, and we'll strive to identify key catalysts and risks for each stock. 
Broadly, the idea behind this new product is to identify and own companies we expect to profitably gain share or to reap outsized benefits from important secular and cyclical trends, then short names in the same segment that stand to lose the most to the 'winners' we select. 
We'll be back in about a month with our first updates on these three proposed pairs!

In this new monthly research product we introduce three Long / Short pair trade ideas in Chinese travel, Chinese express and logistics, and global container shipping. 
These pair trade ideas are based mainly on expected fundamental change in each segment over the next 6-12 months. We'll focus on Asia, but occasionally we may place non-Asian names on either side of our pair ideas. Besides examining key secular and cyclical trends in each segment, we will consider relative valuations, and we'll strive to identify key catalysts and risks for each stock. 
Broadly, the idea behind this new product is to identify and own companies we expect to profitably gain share or to reap outsized benefits from important secular and cyclical trends, then short names in the same segment that stand to lose the most to the 'winners' we select. 
We'll be back in about a month with our first updates on these three proposed pairs!

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Three Suggested Pair Trades in Travel, Express & Shipping

On Tuesday after the US market close, China's leading online travel agency <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (TCOM US)</a> reported Q320 results. Net Revenue declined 48% YoY, and Adjusted Operating Income fell 50%.Trip.com's results were largely in-line with guidance and expectations, but we believe the pace of the company's recovery is lagging that of some peers and the industry as a whole, even after adjusting for Trip.com's relatively high exposure to outbound travel, which has collapsed. Trip.com's revenue guidance for Q420 also suggests the pace of its recovery will continue to disappoint in the near-term. We don't see anything to get excited about in Trip.com's Q320 results and Q420 guidance.

On Tuesday after the US market close, China's leading online travel agency Trip.com (TCOM US) reported Q320 results. Net Revenue declined 48% YoY, and Adjusted Operating Income fell 50%.Trip.com's results were largely in-line with guidance and expectations, but we believe the pace of the company's recovery is lagging that of some peers and the industry as a whole, even after adjusting for Trip.com's relatively high exposure to outbound travel, which has collapsed. Trip.com's revenue guidance for Q420 also suggests the pace of its recovery will continue to disappoint in the near-term. We don't see anything to get excited about in Trip.com's Q320 results and Q420 guidance. 

Trip.com Q320 Results Met Guidance, But Q420 Guidance Suggests Very Slow Recovery

<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/174/124/original/BANNER-TOURISM.png?1606332998" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="174124"></figure></section>Chinese outbound travel activity remained moribund in October, even after another increase in trips to Macau, which eased some travel restrictions in July. Macau's slow recovery suggests it will take many months for outbound activity to normalize once regional restrictions are lifted. China's 'Golden Week' holiday period was a day longer this year, but by most measures domestic air activity in October remained weak versus 2019. Sequential improvement in RPKs and passenger counts in October was just +5% MoM, roughly in-line with normal seasonality, and travelers are still opting for shorter trips. We believe the pace of recovery in domestic travel is moderating. Can the 2021 Lunar New Year holiday rescue China's travel service providers? Without a relaxation of restrictions in key regional markets, another major holiday travel period could be 'lost', in our opinion. We do not believe improving domestic activity can offset 'lost' outbound travel in Q121.We remain negative on Chinese travel demand. We believe the normalization of domestic and especially outbound activitity will take longer than expected -- no 'snap back' scenario, in other words. Furthermore, we believe underlying demand growth was slowing even before Covid19 hit, and it's become clear that domestic travel activity is unlikely to fully offset 'lost' outbound trips.

Chinese outbound travel activity remained moribund in October, even after another increase in trips to Macau, which eased some travel restrictions in July. Macau's slow recovery suggests it will take many months for outbound activity to normalize once regional restrictions are lifted. China's 'Golden Week' holiday period was a day longer this year, but by most measures domestic air activity in October remained weak versus 2019. Sequential improvement in RPKs and passenger counts in October was just +5% MoM, roughly in-line with normal seasonality, and travelers are still opting for shorter trips. We believe the pace of recovery in domestic travel is moderating. Can the 2021 Lunar New Year holiday rescue China's travel service providers? Without a relaxation of restrictions in key regional markets, another major holiday travel period could be 'lost', in our opinion. We do not believe improving domestic activity can offset 'lost' outbound travel in Q121.We remain negative on Chinese travel demand. We believe the normalization of domestic and especially outbound activitity will take longer than expected -- no 'snap back' scenario, in other words. Furthermore, we believe underlying demand growth was slowing even before Covid19 hit, and it's become clear that domestic travel activity is unlikely to fully offset 'lost' outbound trips. 

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Tourism: Macau's Slog | Golden Week Fails to Shine | LNY 2021 At Risk?

In 2020, we made a good call of "Long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-southern-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1078:1" rel="noopener">China Southern Airlines (1055 HK)</a>, short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK)</a>". Going into 2021, we believe a reversal of such trade, i.e. "Long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK)</a>, short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-southern-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1078:1" rel="noopener">China Southern Airlines (1055 HK)</a>" will generate more attractive return instead. With CSA outperformed 10.8pp YTD, we see it still not too late to enter into this trade.Our strategy is building on four major rationales: 1.) rebound in international traffic, 2.) low comparison base for Air China, 3.) lesser burden from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a>, and 4.) less significant impact of Rmb appreciation. Alternatively, "Long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a>, short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-southern-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1078:1" rel="noopener">China Southern Airlines (1055 HK)</a>" is also a viable trade, but a significantly riskier one.

In 2020, we made a good call of "Long China Southern Airlines (1055 HK), short Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK)". Going into 2021, we believe a reversal of such trade, i.e. "Long Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK), short China Southern Airlines (1055 HK)" will generate more attractive return instead. With CSA outperformed 10.8pp YTD, we see it still not too late to enter into this trade.Our strategy is building on four major rationales: 1.) rebound in international traffic, 2.) low comparison base for Air China, 3.) lesser burden from Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK), and 4.) less significant impact of Rmb appreciation. Alternatively, "Long Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK), short China Southern Airlines (1055 HK)" is also a viable trade, but a significantly riskier one.  

2021 High Conviction: Pair Trade - Long Air China (753 HK), Short China Southern (1055 HK)

China

China Southern Airlines Company Limited provides air transportation services. The Company offers passenger and freight air transportation services, aviation equipment maintenance and aircraft leasing services. Shanghai Airlines also provides ticket and hotel booking and consulting services. China Southern Airlines provides services worldwide.

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China Southern Airlines (600029 CH)

Guangzhou Baiyun Intl Airport (600004 CH): No Abatement in Growth Paces

No sign of slowing traffic growth and decline for cargo throughput have further moderated in Nov. Having underperformed SIAC significantly YTD,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Three Suggested Pair Trades in Travel, Express & Shipping

We're introducing a monthly pair trade idea product to go along with our monthly products covering Chinese travel and tourism, Chinese express, and...

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com Q320 Results Met Guidance, But Q420 Guidance Suggests Very Slow Recovery

Trip.com met Q320 net revenue guidance but offered guidance for Q420 that assumes only modest progress toward recovery in the current period.

Tracking Traffic

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Tourism: Macau's Slog | Golden Week Fails to Shine | LNY 2021 At Risk?

Chinese travel demand remained weak in October, which included the long Golden Week holiday. Poor outbound travel demand is not a surprise at this...

Tracking Traffic

2021 High Conviction: Pair Trade - Long Air China (753 HK), Short China Southern (1055 HK)

Supported by 1.) international traffic rebound, 2.) low comparison base, 3.) lesser burden from CX, and 4.) smaller Rmb appreciation impact, we...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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