Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Weak travel growth getting weaker, now years out from steepest part of recovery</li>
<li>Most airlines &amp; hotel chains have benefitted little from improved travel demand</li>
<li>In recent months, appears momentum shifting back to travel intermediaries </li>
</ul>


Weak travel growth getting weaker, now years out from steepest part of recovery
Most airlines &amp; hotel chains have benefitted little from improved travel demand
In recent months, appears momentum shifting back to travel intermediaries 


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Momentum Shifts From Airlines to TCOM | September 2025

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 157 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 57.0% as of Sep 19th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -0.8ppt week-on-week, led by industrials, energy, health care and offset by real estate, consumer staples, utilities.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Zmj, Yankuang Energy, Liaoning Port, Haier Smart Home, Qingdao Port, China Minsheng Banking.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 157 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 57.0% as of Sep 19th.
The average A-H premium changed by -0.8ppt week-on-week, led by industrials, energy, health care and offset by real estate, consumer staples, utilities.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Zmj, Yankuang Energy, Liaoning Port, Haier Smart Home, Qingdao Port, China Minsheng Banking.


A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 19th): Zmj, Yankuang Energy, Liaoning Port, Haier Smart Home, Qingdao Port

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Airline &amp; airport air cargo data shows moderating demand, Asia &gt; N America</li>
<li>No signs of supply tightness in the system; in fact, reported yields are <em>falling</em>
</li>
<li>Most indicators show that demand is mediocre, space plentiful, pricing weak</li>
</ul>


Airline &amp; airport air cargo data shows moderating demand, Asia &gt; N America
No signs of supply tightness in the system; in fact, reported yields are falling

Most indicators show that demand is mediocre, space plentiful, pricing weak


Monthly Air Cargo Tracker | May-July Data Shows Soft Demand, Ample Capacity, Lower Yields

<ul>
<li>Led by Accommodation activity, Q225 net revenue growth was a solid +16% Y/Y </li>
<li>Some progress on OpEx control, but core margins declined <em>again</em> in Q225</li>
<li>Even with big buyback, is it worth US$75/ADS? We think fair value near US$60</li>
</ul>


Led by Accommodation activity, Q225 net revenue growth was a solid +16% Y/Y 
Some progress on OpEx control, but core margins declined again in Q225
Even with big buyback, is it worth US$75/ADS? We think fair value near US$60


Trip.com Q225 Results | Big Buyback a Surprise | But Margins Still Under Pressure | Fair Value US$60

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>1H25 earnings of our coverage are generally weaker than expected, with a 5.9% growth; for 2H25, the consensus forecasts point to a further slowdown to 4%. </li>
<li>The Chinese airlines, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-electric-group-company-limited-d542164d-4d5a-4ce0-b33e-5fe6bc34722c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8777:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Electric Group (2727 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sany-heavy-equipment-intl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11104:1" rel="noopener">Sany Heavy Equipment (631 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-travel-international-investment-hong-kong" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3879:1" rel="noopener">China Travel International Investment (308 HK)</a> exhibit the best YoY growth in 2H25. </li>
<li>Container shipping and trade-related companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-cosco-holdings-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:286:1" rel="noopener">COSCO Shipping Holdings (1919 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orient-overseas-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:801:1" rel="noopener">Orient Overseas International (316 HK)</a> are expected to see earnings plunge in 2H25.</li>
</ul>


1H25 earnings of our coverage are generally weaker than expected, with a 5.9% growth; for 2H25, the consensus forecasts point to a further slowdown to 4%. 
The Chinese airlines, Shanghai Electric Group (2727 HK), Sany Heavy Equipment (631 HK), and China Travel International Investment (308 HK) exhibit the best YoY growth in 2H25. 
Container shipping and trade-related companies like COSCO Shipping Holdings (1919 HK), and Orient Overseas International (316 HK) are expected to see earnings plunge in 2H25.


China Strategy: 1H25 Roundup and Implications for 2H25

China

China Southern Airlines Company Limited provides commercial airline services throughout China, Southeast Asia and other parts of the world.  The Company also provides other airline related services including aircraft maintenance and air catering.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

China Southern Airlines (1055 HK)

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Momentum Shifts From Airlines to TCOM | September 2025

Chinese air travel growth continues to slow. Chinese airlines have been unable to lift margins as aircraft utilization improves, and we no longer...

Tracking Traffic

A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 19th): Zmj, Yankuang Energy, Liaoning Port, Haier Smart Home, Qingdao Port

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Zmj, Yankuang Energy, Liaoning Port, Haier Smart Home,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Monthly Air Cargo Tracker | May-July Data Shows Soft Demand, Ample Capacity, Lower Yields

A look at July yields, load factors, and tonnage growth in July suggests an Asian air cargo market that has plenty of supply to meet moderating...

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com Q225 Results | Big Buyback a Surprise | But Margins Still Under Pressure | Fair Value US$60

Trip.com announced a big share buyback last week, but its Q225 core results were unimpressive. Given modest growth expectations, we put fair value...

Tracking Traffic

China Strategy: 1H25 Roundup and Implications for 2H25

1H25 earnings weaker than expected with 5.9% growth; 2H25 forecasts show further slowdown to 4%. Chinese airlines and trade-related companies...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Momentum Shifts From Airlines to TCOM | September 2025

Chinese air travel growth continues to slow. Chinese airlines have been unable to lift margins as aircraft utilization improves, and we no longer...

Tracking Traffic

A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 19th): Zmj, Yankuang Energy, Liaoning Port, Haier Smart Home, Qingdao Port

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Zmj, Yankuang Energy, Liaoning Port, Haier Smart Home,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Monthly Air Cargo Tracker | May-July Data Shows Soft Demand, Ample Capacity, Lower Yields

A look at July yields, load factors, and tonnage growth in July suggests an Asian air cargo market that has plenty of supply to meet moderating...

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com Q225 Results | Big Buyback a Surprise | But Margins Still Under Pressure | Fair Value US$60

Trip.com announced a big share buyback last week, but its Q225 core results were unimpressive. Given modest growth expectations, we put fair value...

Tracking Traffic

China Strategy: 1H25 Roundup and Implications for 2H25

​1H25 earnings weaker than expected with 5.9% growth; 2H25 forecasts show further slowdown to 4%. Chinese airlines and trade-related companies...

Osbert Tang, CFA

1H25 earnings weaker than expected with 5.9% growth; 2H25 forecasts show further slowdown to 4%. Chinese airlines and trade-related companies...