HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-longyuan-power-group-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14215:1" rel="noopener">China Longyuan Power (916 HK)</a> will see accelerating earnings momentum in the rest of the year - after a weak start due to high base for YoY comparison.</li>
<li>We believe the combination of increase in utilisation hours, growth in installed capacity, improvement in power tariff and better cash flow and cost performance are the major drivers.</li>
<li>Share price has been weak in this year, and has returned the stock to less demanding level of 13.3x FY22 PER which we think cannot adequately reflects earnings prospects.</li>
</ul>



China Longyuan Power (916 HK) will see accelerating earnings momentum in the rest of the year - after a weak start due to high base for YoY comparison.
We believe the combination of increase in utilisation hours, growth in installed capacity, improvement in power tariff and better cash flow and cost performance are the major drivers.
Share price has been weak in this year, and has returned the stock to less demanding level of 13.3x FY22 PER which we think cannot adequately reflects earnings prospects.


China Longyuan (916 HK): On Your Mark, Get Set, Go!

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

China Huarong Asset Management / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We see seven new listings as potential inclusions to the HSCI in June. One is already a part of Connect while five will be added to Southbound Stock Connect.</li>
<li>We see 19 potential changes to the HSCI in September. Seven of the deletions are on market cap, four on liquidity, and eight due to prolonged trading suspension.</li>
<li>Some of the potential deletions have large Southbound holdings and some of these could be trimmed over the next couple of months.</li>
</ul>


We see seven new listings as potential inclusions to the HSCI in June. One is already a part of Connect while five will be added to Southbound Stock Connect.
We see 19 potential changes to the HSCI in September. Seven of the deletions are on market cap, four on liquidity, and eight due to prolonged trading suspension.
Some of the potential deletions have large Southbound holdings and some of these could be trimmed over the next couple of months.


HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in June and September

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A/H premium on 138 stocks over the last week.</li>
<li>Consumer staple, consumer discretionary and heathcare led the 3.0ppt weekly A-H premium decline. </li>
<li>We highlight names including Shenzhen HepaLink, Shandong Xinhua Pharm, and Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A/H premium on 138 stocks over the last week.
Consumer staple, consumer discretionary and heathcare led the 3.0ppt weekly A-H premium decline. 
We highlight names including Shenzhen HepaLink, Shandong Xinhua Pharm, and Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology.


A-H Premium Weekly: Healthcare Led Premium Decline

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-longyuan-power-group-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14215:1" rel="noopener">China Longyuan Power Group Corp (916 HK)</a> is expected to see an exciting year on the back of faster capacity growth, increase in utilisation hours and higher average tariff.</li>
<li>Potential asset injection from its parent CHN Energy remains a wild card. It may grow its capacity by an average of 30% over the next three years if materialises.</li>
<li>Lower funding costs and the return to A-share are positive to Longyuan's expansion. We think consensus forecasts for next 2 years are too low and represent potential upside surprises.</li>
</ul>



China Longyuan Power Group Corp (916 HK) is expected to see an exciting year on the back of faster capacity growth, increase in utilisation hours and higher average tariff.
Potential asset injection from its parent CHN Energy remains a wild card. It may grow its capacity by an average of 30% over the next three years if materialises.
Lower funding costs and the return to A-share are positive to Longyuan's expansion. We think consensus forecasts for next 2 years are too low and represent potential upside surprises.


China Longyuan (916 HK): It Deserves the Premium

Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>FY21 result of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinjiang-goldwind-science-technology-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10112:1" rel="noopener">Xinjiang Goldwind (2208 HK)</a> is healthy, though behind expectations due to impairments. We see them not recurrent into FY22, and this should be positive to earnings.  </li>
<li>Management sees some margin decline for WTG segment but the expectation of over 30% volume growth should offset the impact. Orderbook is secured at 16,874.4MW.</li>
<li>Growth in power servicing is the bright sport with target revenue growth for 50%. Goldwind also plans to also add 0.5-1GW of generating capacity annually at wind farm development segment.</li>
</ul>


FY21 result of Xinjiang Goldwind (2208 HK) is healthy, though behind expectations due to impairments. We see them not recurrent into FY22, and this should be positive to earnings.  
Management sees some margin decline for WTG segment but the expectation of over 30% volume growth should offset the impact. Orderbook is secured at 16,874.4MW.
Growth in power servicing is the bright sport with target revenue growth for 50%. Goldwind also plans to also add 0.5-1GW of generating capacity annually at wind farm development segment.


Xinjiang Goldwind (2208 HK): Positive Messages from Post-FY21 Call

China

China Suntien Green Energy Corp Ltd operates a wind farm and a natural gas business. The Company intends to build wind power projects and develop natural gas projects throughout China.

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China Suntien Green Energy (956 HK)

China Longyuan (916 HK): On Your Mark, Get Set, Go!

Longyuan should see better growth prospects in the rest of the year with drivers from improvement in utilisation hours, increase in capacity,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in June and September

We forecast 7 adds to the HSCI in June. For the September rebalance, we forecast 19 adds & 19 deletes (7 on mkt cap, 4 on liquidity, 8 on long...

Brian Freitas

A-H Premium Weekly: Healthcare Led Premium Decline

A-H premium declined by 3.0ppt last week, led by consumer staple, consumer discretionary and heathcare. We highlight names including Shenzhen...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Longyuan (916 HK): It Deserves the Premium

FY22 will be an exciting year - higher utilisation, improvement in tariff, faster capacity growth and potential asset injection. All these factors...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Xinjiang Goldwind (2208 HK): Positive Messages from Post-FY21 Call

WTG is set for a 30% growth in capacity delivery in FY22, offsetting the impact of lower margin. Both power servicing and wind farm development...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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