HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The top ten highest-yielding stocks under our coverage have an average yield of 7.4% for FY25F and 7.2% for FY26F, attractive amid the declining interest rate environment.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinotrans-limited-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1321:1" rel="noopener">Sinotrans (598 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anhui-expressway-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5236:1" rel="noopener">Anhui Expressway Co Ltd H (995 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-railway-signal-communication-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:613:1" rel="noopener">China Railway Signal &amp; Communication (3969 HK)</a> are better quality ones with 6-7% average yield.</li>
<li>Chinese airlines are low on yields given they are still loss-making, but they have a good earnings rebound in 2H25, making them suitable for aggressive investors.</li>
</ul>


The top ten highest-yielding stocks under our coverage have an average yield of 7.4% for FY25F and 7.2% for FY26F, attractive amid the declining interest rate environment.

Sinotrans (598 HK), Anhui Expressway Co Ltd H (995 HK), and China Railway Signal &amp; Communication (3969 HK) are better quality ones with 6-7% average yield.
Chinese airlines are low on yields given they are still loss-making, but they have a good earnings rebound in 2H25, making them suitable for aggressive investors.


China & HK Strategy: The High-Yield Playbook

<ul>
<li>For 1H25, the companies under our coverage will report a 16.8% earnings growth. Breaking down by quarter, 2Q25 growth will accelerate to 30.8%, from 14.1% in 1Q25. </li>
<li>The best growth rates are at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-national-building-ma-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:184:1" rel="noopener">China National Building Material (3323 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-capital-corporation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1071:1" rel="noopener">CICC (3908 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-capital-international-airport-bcia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10626:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Capital Intl Airport (694 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel (780 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sitc-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15301:1" rel="noopener">SITC Intl (1308 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>The worst ones are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-travel-international-investment-hong-kong" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3879:1" rel="noopener">China Travel Intl (308 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-energy-tran-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:646:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Energy Transp (1138 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-southern-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1078:1" rel="noopener">China Southern Airlines (1055 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36229:1" rel="noopener">CTG Duty Free (1880 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-basin-shipping-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:929:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Basin (2343 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


For 1H25, the companies under our coverage will report a 16.8% earnings growth. Breaking down by quarter, 2Q25 growth will accelerate to 30.8%, from 14.1% in 1Q25. 
The best growth rates are at China National Building Material (3323 HK), CICC (3908 HK), Beijing Capital Intl Airport (694 HK), Tongcheng Travel (780 HK), and SITC Intl (1308 HK). 
The worst ones are China Travel Intl (308 HK), Cosco Shipping Energy Transp (1138 HK), China Southern Airlines (1055 HK), CTG Duty Free (1880 HK), and Pacific Basin (2343 HK). 


China & HK Strategy: 1H25 Preview - Where Are the Upside and Downside Surprises?

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Robots /In Depth: The march of Chinese robots into domestic factories</li><li>Dam /: China expresses ‘grave concerns’ over Ukraine dam collapse</li><li>Compensation /: Wrongfully convicted man seeks $2.9 million in state compensation</li></ul>

Robots /In Depth: The march of Chinese robots into domestic factoriesDam /: China expresses ‘grave concerns’ over Ukraine dam collapseCompensation /: Wrongfully convicted man seeks $2.9 million in state compensation

CX Daily: The March of Chinese Robots Into Domestic Factories

<ul><li>Tobacco / Cover Story: China’s tobacco monopoly is swept up in corruption probes</li><li>Workers / Eastern province eases upper age limit for construction workers amid labor shortage</li><li>Moon / China plans first crewed moon landing by 2030</li></ul>

Tobacco / Cover Story: China’s tobacco monopoly is swept up in corruption probesWorkers / Eastern province eases upper age limit for construction workers amid labor shortageMoon / China plans first crewed moon landing by 2030

CX Daily: China’s Tobacco Monopoly Is Swept Up in Corruption Probes

India focused: IPO, special situations, Stylus Holdings

Himanshu Dugar

India focused: IPO, special situations

Stylus Holdings

Stylus Holdings is a buy-side equity research firm. We offer bottom-up investment ideas as well as provide on demand equity research and portfolio tracking. 
At Stylus, our focus is to identify market dislocations that can generate 20+% IRR with a reasonable margin of safety. As part of our research process, we do a deep dive into the fundamentals of the company, evaluate their competitive positioning and assess their valuation.
Our investment team is led by Himanshu Dugar. Himanshu is a Chartered Accountant and a CFA charter holder. He has 10+ years of active experience in the stock market with stints at CRISIL Research, a S&P Global copmany and Miras Investments, a single family office based in Dubai.

Equity Research Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ITC's share prices collapsed on 1st-Jan following a larger-than-expected indirect tax hike on Cigarettes in India. The changes translate to a 20-50% increase in MRP, potentially aiding illicit Cigarette trade.</li>
<li>We present data on how ITC's Cigarette business has performed well despite regular tax hikes and how steep hikes followed by a stable taxation envrionment benefits in the long term.</li>
<li>At CMP, stock is attractive at 20x Cigarette profits alone (peers trade at 25x), offering FMCG and agri business (worth 40/share) + 50k crores in cash/listed investments (40/share) as buffer.</li>
</ul>


ITC's share prices collapsed on 1st-Jan following a larger-than-expected indirect tax hike on Cigarettes in India. The changes translate to a 20-50% increase in MRP, potentially aiding illicit Cigarette trade.
We present data on how ITC's Cigarette business has performed well despite regular tax hikes and how steep hikes followed by a stable taxation envrionment benefits in the long term.
At CMP, stock is attractive at 20x Cigarette profits alone (peers trade at 25x), offering FMCG and agri business (worth 40/share) + 50k crores in cash/listed investments (40/share) as buffer.


ITC - Is It Time for Contrarian Investors to Enter?

Hong Kong

China Tobacco International (HK) engages in the sales, import, and export of tobacco leaf products, cigarettes, and new tobacco products. The company also handles the procurement, processing, and sale of tobacco leaves through its Brazil operations. It was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Kowloon, Hong Kong.

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China Tobacco International (6055 HK)

China & HK Strategy: The High-Yield Playbook

With the increase in volatility in the near term due to the uncertainties from potentially higher tariffs and the Trump-Xi meeting in APEC, there...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China & HK Strategy: 1H25 Preview - Where Are the Upside and Downside Surprises?

The companies under our coverage are expected to report 16.8% earnings growth for 1H25, with 2Q25 accelerating to 30.8%. Top performers include...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CX Daily: The March of Chinese Robots Into Domestic Factories

Robots /In Depth: The march of Chinese robots into domestic factories Dam /: China expresses ‘grave concerns’ over Ukraine dam...

Caixin Global

CX Daily: China’s Tobacco Monopoly Is Swept Up in Corruption Probes

Cover Story: China’s tobacco monopoly is swept up in corruption probes. Eastern province eases upper age limit for construction workers amid labor...

Caixin Global

ITC - Is It Time for Contrarian Investors to Enter?

ITC's share prices plummeted after a significant tax hike on cigarettes in Jan. Historically, business has been resilient despite hikes + we feel...

Himanshu Dugar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China & HK Strategy: The High-Yield Playbook

With the increase in volatility in the near term due to the uncertainties from potentially higher tariffs and the Trump-Xi meeting in APEC, there...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China & HK Strategy: 1H25 Preview - Where Are the Upside and Downside Surprises?

The companies under our coverage are expected to report 16.8% earnings growth for 1H25, with 2Q25 accelerating to 30.8%. Top performers include...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CX Daily: The March of Chinese Robots Into Domestic Factories

Robots /In Depth: The march of Chinese robots into domestic factories Dam /: China expresses ‘grave concerns’ over Ukraine dam...

Caixin Global

CX Daily: China’s Tobacco Monopoly Is Swept Up in Corruption Probes

Cover Story: China’s tobacco monopoly is swept up in corruption probes. Eastern province eases upper age limit for construction workers amid labor...

Caixin Global

ITC - Is It Time for Contrarian Investors to Enter?

​ITC's share prices plummeted after a significant tax hike on cigarettes in Jan. Historically, business has been resilient despite hikes + we feel...

Himanshu Dugar

ITC's share prices plummeted after a significant tax hike on cigarettes in Jan. Historically, business has been resilient despite hikes + we feel...