Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Big Beautiful Skew was again a no-show. But the SFC's expectation of dual counter eligibility for Connect by year-end approaches its endgame.</li>
<li>The GAC (2238 HK) reco 2wks ago worked well. One extra week was bad. Last week's reco on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)</a> was a disaster. H underperformed A by 8.4%.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Pairs Monitor</a> are both there - free - for all SK readers.</li>
</ul>


Big Beautiful Skew was again a no-show. But the SFC's expectation of dual counter eligibility for Connect by year-end approaches its endgame.
The GAC (2238 HK) reco 2wks ago worked well. One extra week was bad. Last week's reco on CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) was a disaster. H underperformed A by 8.4%.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there - free - for all SK readers.


A/H Premium Tracker (Week to 31 Oct 2025):  Beautiful Skew Behaving Badly But RMB Counters Approach

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Excluding an outlier, our coverage universe is expected to witness a 56.6% YoY earnings growth in 4Q25, rapidly accelerating from the previous quarter.</li>
<li>Stocks with the best growth are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinjiang-goldwind-science-technology-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10112:1" rel="noopener">Xinjiang Goldwind (2208 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sany-heavy-equipment-intl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11104:1" rel="noopener">Sany Heavy Equip. (631 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfang-electric-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1251:1" rel="noopener">Dongfang Electric (1072 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36229:1" rel="noopener">CTG Duty Free (1880 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-energy-tran-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:646:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Energy (1138 HK)</a>.. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-capital-corporation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1071:1" rel="noopener">CICC (3908 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-national-building-ma-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:184:1" rel="noopener">CNBM (3323 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-electric-group-company-limited-d542164d-4d5a-4ce0-b33e-5fe6bc34722c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8777:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Electric (2727 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinotrans-limited-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1321:1" rel="noopener">Sinotrans (598 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anjoy-foods-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44280:1" rel="noopener">Anjoy Foods (2648 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-ports-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:360:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Ports (1199 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home (6690 HK)</a> may upgrade. </li>
</ul>


Excluding an outlier, our coverage universe is expected to witness a 56.6% YoY earnings growth in 4Q25, rapidly accelerating from the previous quarter.
Stocks with the best growth are Xinjiang Goldwind (2208 HK), Sany Heavy Equip. (631 HK), Dongfang Electric (1072 HK), CTG Duty Free (1880 HK), and Cosco Shipping Energy (1138 HK).. 

CICC (3908 HK), CNBM (3323 HK), Shanghai Electric (2727 HK), Sinotrans (598 HK), Anjoy Foods (2648 HK), Cosco Shipping Ports (1199 HK), and Haier Smart Home (6690 HK) may upgrade. 


China & HK Strategy: Stock Implications for 4Q25

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Sany Heavy Industry / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sany-heavy-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20183:1" rel="noopener">Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH)</a> priced its H Share at HK$21.30 to raise HK$13,453 million (US$1.7 billion) in gross proceeds. The H Share will be listed tomorrow.</li>
<li>I discussed the H Share listing in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sany-heavy-industry-h-share-listing-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:205839" rel="noopener">SANY Heavy Industry H Share Listing: The Investment Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sany-heavy-industry-h-share-listing-6031-hk-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:206617" rel="noopener">SANY Heavy Industry H Share Listing (6031 HK): Valuation Insights</a>. </li>
<li>Sany's international oversubscription rates were above the median of recent large AH listings. The AH discount remains reasonable.</li>
</ul>



Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH) priced its H Share at HK$21.30 to raise HK$13,453 million (US$1.7 billion) in gross proceeds. The H Share will be listed tomorrow.
I discussed the H Share listing in SANY Heavy Industry H Share Listing: The Investment Case and SANY Heavy Industry H Share Listing (6031 HK): Valuation Insights. 
Sany's international oversubscription rates were above the median of recent large AH listings. The AH discount remains reasonable.


SANY Heavy Industry H Share Listing (6031 HK): Trading Debut

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 157 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 58.2% as of Oct 10th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 1.9ppt week-on-week, led by real estate, financials, consumer discretionary and offset by utilities, information technology, communication services.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Cosco Shipping Development, Innocare Pharma, Shanghai Electric, SMIC, CIMC, Gf Securities.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 157 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 58.2% as of Oct 10th.
The average A-H premium changed by 1.9ppt week-on-week, led by real estate, financials, consumer discretionary and offset by utilities, information technology, communication services.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Cosco Shipping Development, Innocare Pharma, Shanghai Electric, SMIC, CIMC, Gf Securities.


A-H Premium Weekly (Oct 10th): Cosco Shipping Development, Innocare Pharma, Shanghai Electric, SMIC

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a> priced its IPO at HK$71.59 per share to raise gross proceeds of approximately US$3.2 billion. The shares will begin trading on September 30.</li>
<li>The IPO was discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zijin-gold-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:201176" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold IPO: The Investment Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zijin-gold-ipo-2259-hk-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:202646" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Valuation Insights</a>.</li>
<li>The market sentiment of the peers has increased since the IPO launch. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.</li>
</ul>



Zijin Gold (2259 HK) priced its IPO at HK$71.59 per share to raise gross proceeds of approximately US$3.2 billion. The shares will begin trading on September 30.
The IPO was discussed in Zijin Gold IPO: The Investment Case and Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Valuation Insights.
The market sentiment of the peers has increased since the IPO launch. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.


China

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited engages in sales of duty free goods and tax goods. The Company sells tobacco, wine and spirits, perfume, cosmetics, fashion and accessories, watches, jewelry, food, luggage products,and other products. China Tourism Group Duty Free also engages in investment and development of tourism destination commercial complexes.

Price Gauge
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China Tourism Group Duty Free (1880 HK)

A/H Premium Tracker (Week to 31 Oct 2025): Beautiful Skew Behaving Badly But RMB Counters Approach

AH sees another week of non-beautiful skew as H premia or super narrow H discounts see Hs outperform, wider discounts the opposite. The SFC goal of...

Travis Lundy

China & HK Strategy: Stock Implications for 4Q25

Expect a 56.6% YoY profit growth in 4Q25 for our coverage universe, with top growth stocks being Xinjiang Goldwind, Sany Heavy Equipment, Dongfang...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (Oct 10th): Cosco Shipping Development, Innocare Pharma, Shanghai Electric, SMIC

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Cosco Shipping Development, Innocare Pharma, Shanghai...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Trading Debut

The market sentiment of the peers has increased since the IPO launch. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

A/H Premium Tracker (Week to 31 Oct 2025): Beautiful Skew Behaving Badly But RMB Counters Approach

AH sees another week of non-beautiful skew as H premia or super narrow H discounts see Hs outperform, wider discounts the opposite. The SFC goal of...

Travis Lundy

China & HK Strategy: Stock Implications for 4Q25

​Expect a 56.6% YoY profit growth in 4Q25 for our coverage universe, with top growth stocks being Xinjiang Goldwind, Sany Heavy Equipment, Dongfang...

Osbert Tang, CFA

SANY Heavy Industry H Share Listing (6031 HK): Trading Debut

Sany Heavy raised US$1.7 billion in gross proceeds. Sany's international oversubscription rates were above the median of recent large AH listings....

Arun George

A-H Premium Weekly (Oct 10th): Cosco Shipping Development, Innocare Pharma, Shanghai Electric, SMIC

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Cosco Shipping Development, Innocare Pharma, Shanghai...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Trading Debut

The market sentiment of the peers has increased since the IPO launch. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.

Arun George

Expect a 56.6% YoY profit growth in 4Q25 for our coverage universe, with top growth stocks being Xinjiang Goldwind, Sany Heavy Equipment, Dongfang...