Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Shinko Electric Industries / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>JIC announced a "mid-February" start date for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric (6967 JP)</a>'s Tender Offer. That's a trifle disappointing based on when SAMR approved, but there are lots of people involved here.</li>
<li>What has been the long-term trend and the trend of the last two years is different. Be long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha (3391 JP)</a>, short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia (3141 JP)</a> until above 4.5x, maybe 4.8x.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macromill-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24026:1" rel="noopener">Macromill, Inc (3978 JP)</a>'s reward/risk ratio over the next year of buying at ¥1,250 and seeing what happens is quite good, especially if the deal breaks.</li>
</ul>


JIC announced a "mid-February" start date for Shinko Electric (6967 JP)'s Tender Offer. That's a trifle disappointing based on when SAMR approved, but there are lots of people involved here.
What has been the long-term trend and the trend of the last two years is different. Be long Tsuruha (3391 JP), short Welcia (3141 JP) until above 4.5x, maybe 4.8x.

Macromill, Inc (3978 JP)'s reward/risk ratio over the next year of buying at ¥1,250 and seeing what happens is quite good, especially if the deal breaks.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Shinko Elec, Tsuruha/Welcia, Macromill, Sun Corp/Cellebrite, MicroStrategy

<ul>
<li>I tally 48 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. </li>
<li>One new deal was discussed this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/city-developments-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:57:1" rel="noopener">City Developments (CIT SP)</a>'s Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/millennium-copthorne-hotels-nz-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5040:1" rel="noopener">Millennium &amp; Copthorne Hotels Nz (MCK NZ)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insignia-financial-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12349:1" rel="noopener">Insignia Financial (IFL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avjennings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12578:1" rel="noopener">AVJennings (AVJ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canvest-environmental-protection-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:100:1" rel="noopener">Canvest (1381 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makino-milling-machine-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5200:1" rel="noopener">Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP)</a>. </li>
</ul>


I tally 48 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. 
One new deal was discussed this week: City Developments (CIT SP)'s Offer for Millennium &amp; Copthorne Hotels Nz (MCK NZ).
Key updates/news took place on: Insignia Financial (IFL AU), AVJennings (AVJ AU), Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK), Canvest (1381 HK), Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK), and Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP). 


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A:Millennium & Copthorne, Insignia, AVJennings, Henlius, Canvest, Makino Milling

<ul>
<li>The question was asked in <a href="https://skr.ma/2qNon" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Henlius (2696 HK): So, When Was The Last Time A PE/VC Outfit Blocked A Deal?</a> Well, now we have one as LVC inexplicably <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0122/2025012200662.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">blocked</a>.</li>
<li>It didn’t appear to make economic rationale for LVC to crash the party - knowing they would do so, and not bother to reduce their position accordingly.</li>
<li>In tandem with the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">TCM (570 HK)</a> debacle, it sets another bad precedent for future/existing Hong Kong  events. Expect spreads for HK arbs to widen. And Henlius to crater.</li>
</ul>


The question was asked in Henlius (2696 HK): So, When Was The Last Time A PE/VC Outfit Blocked A Deal? Well, now we have one as LVC inexplicably blocked.
It didn’t appear to make economic rationale for LVC to crash the party - knowing they would do so, and not bother to reduce their position accordingly.
In tandem with the TCM (570 HK) debacle, it sets another bad precedent for future/existing Hong Kong  events. Expect spreads for HK arbs to widen. And Henlius to crater.


Henlius (2696)'s Fail Sets (Another) Bad Precedent

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a> shareholders have voted against <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-fosun-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8045:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)</a>’s HK$24.60 offer. The minority participation rate was high, and the NO vote comfortably cleared the threshold.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a> and Henlius deal breaks have rewritten the HKEx merger arb rulebook. The Henlius deal break offers several lessons.</li>
<li>The 27.5% share price decline since 9 January points to a well-flagged deal break. Nevertheless, precedent deal-breaks suggest that the shares remain vulnerable and could touch HK$15.  </li>
</ul>



Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) shareholders have voted against Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)’s HK$24.60 offer. The minority participation rate was high, and the NO vote comfortably cleared the threshold.
The China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) and Henlius deal breaks have rewritten the HKEx merger arb rulebook. The Henlius deal break offers several lessons.
The 27.5% share price decline since 9 January points to a well-flagged deal break. Nevertheless, precedent deal-breaks suggest that the shares remain vulnerable and could touch HK$15.  


Henlius (2696 HK): Deal Break as HKEx Merger Arb Rulebooks Are Rewritten

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

China Traditional Chinese Medicine / Equity Bottom-Up

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)

<ul>
<li>The sharp performance decline of China TCM in 2024 is actually in line with our expectation. The current valuation has not yet reached its lowest point. </li>
<li>China TCM can still achieve an average annual profit of RMB1 billion in the future. Together with the new management, we expect the Company to come out of the trough.</li>
<li>Instead of betting on privatization again, it's better to focus more on whether China TCM's fundamentals would improve, which is the key factor that can support a sustainable valuation rebound.</li>
</ul>


The sharp performance decline of China TCM in 2024 is actually in line with our expectation. The current valuation has not yet reached its lowest point. 
China TCM can still achieve an average annual profit of RMB1 billion in the future. Together with the new management, we expect the Company to come out of the trough.
Instead of betting on privatization again, it's better to focus more on whether China TCM's fundamentals would improve, which is the key factor that can support a sustainable valuation rebound.


China TCM (570.HK) - About the Profit Warning and the Valuation Outlook

Hong Kong

China Traditional Chinese Medicine Holdings Co. Ltd. is an investment holding company engaged in the research, development, production, and sale of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) and pharmaceutical products. It offers concentrated TCM granules, healthcare products, decoction pieces, and finished drugs, as well as Chinese medical healthcare solutions. The company was founded in 1905 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Shinko Elec, Tsuruha/Welcia, Macromill, Sun Corp/Cellebrite, MicroStrategy

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A:Millennium & Copthorne, Insignia, AVJennings, Henlius, Canvest, Makino Milling

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Henlius (2696)'s Fail Sets (Another) Bad Precedent

What a massive disappointment. Expect Hong Kong arb spreads to widen today. Post TCM, and now Henlius, many investors simply cannot take the risk...

David Blennerhassett

Henlius (2696 HK): Deal Break as HKEx Merger Arb Rulebooks Are Rewritten

The 27.5% share price decline since 9 January points to a well-flagged deal break. Nevertheless, precedent deal-breaks suggest that the shares...

Arun George

China TCM (570.HK) - About the Profit Warning and the Valuation Outlook

China TCM's performance decline in 2024 aligns with expectations, but there is hope for future profit growth based on new management. Focus on...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Shinko Elec, Tsuruha/Welcia, Macromill, Sun Corp/Cellebrite, MicroStrategy

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A:Millennium & Copthorne, Insignia, AVJennings, Henlius, Canvest, Makino Milling

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Henlius (2696)'s Fail Sets (Another) Bad Precedent

What a massive disappointment. Expect Hong Kong arb spreads to widen today. Post TCM, and now Henlius, many investors simply cannot take the risk...

David Blennerhassett

Henlius (2696 HK): Deal Break as HKEx Merger Arb Rulebooks Are Rewritten

The 27.5% share price decline since 9 January points to a well-flagged deal break. Nevertheless, precedent deal-breaks suggest that the shares...

Arun George

China TCM (570.HK) - About the Profit Warning and the Valuation Outlook

​China TCM's performance decline in 2024 aligns with expectations, but there is hope for future profit growth based on new management. Focus on...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China TCM's performance decline in 2024 aligns with expectations, but there is hope for future profit growth based on new management. Focus on...