Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The China equity markets have continued to slide and the lower market caps and free float market caps will see a lot of stocks deleted from passive portfolios in February.</li>
<li>We currently estimate selling of around US$1.66bn across 74 stocks listed on the mainland, in HK and the U.S., and that number could increase as markets continue to underperform.</li>
<li>The potential deletes have dropped a lot over the last 4 months and there has been a marked underperformance versus the headline indices over the last month.</li>
</ul>


The China equity markets have continued to slide and the lower market caps and free float market caps will see a lot of stocks deleted from passive portfolios in February.
We currently estimate selling of around US$1.66bn across 74 stocks listed on the mainland, in HK and the U.S., and that number could increase as markets continue to underperform.
The potential deletes have dropped a lot over the last 4 months and there has been a marked underperformance versus the headline indices over the last month.


China: Sliding Market Leads to Passive Selling

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 12th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight the weekly Hong Kong connect flows for CNOOC, Tencent.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 12th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight the weekly Hong Kong connect flows for CNOOC, Tencent.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jan 12th): CNOOC, Tencent

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

China Traditional Chinese Medicine / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>China TCM’s privatization rumor led to large fluctuation of its share price last week. Since there have been related rumors twice, this may not be completely over yet.</li>
<li>China TCM’s performance may not rebound quickly due to short-term challenges in concentrated TCM granules business. </li>
<li>However, the decline in the revenue side could be a temporary phenomenon. After a difficult period, if the Company's business could recover as expected, share price would rebound. </li>
</ul>


China TCM’s privatization rumor led to large fluctuation of its share price last week. Since there have been related rumors twice, this may not be completely over yet.
China TCM’s performance may not rebound quickly due to short-term challenges in concentrated TCM granules business. 
However, the decline in the revenue side could be a temporary phenomenon. After a difficult period, if the Company's business could recover as expected, share price would rebound. 


China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570.HK) - The Privatization Rumor and the Outlook

<ul>
<li>The recovery of concentrated TCM granules business makes us optimistic about China TCM's 2023 full-year performance growth. The resurgence of pandemic and privatization rumor always attract the attention of investors.</li>
<li>Pientzehuang’s 23Q3 performance was disappointing. Consumption downgrade makes the strategy of raising prices no longer effective. There is downward pressure on valuation as performance will not turn around soon.</li>
<li>The investment logic of rigid demand is more convincing than consumption upgrading. So, China TCM is more likely to outperform Pientzehuang. Our view is long China TCM, and short Pientzehuang.</li>
</ul>


The recovery of concentrated TCM granules business makes us optimistic about China TCM's 2023 full-year performance growth. The resurgence of pandemic and privatization rumor always attract the attention of investors.
Pientzehuang’s 23Q3 performance was disappointing. Consumption downgrade makes the strategy of raising prices no longer effective. There is downward pressure on valuation as performance will not turn around soon.
The investment logic of rigid demand is more convincing than consumption upgrading. So, China TCM is more likely to outperform Pientzehuang. Our view is long China TCM, and short Pientzehuang.


China Healthcare–A Pair Trade Between China TCM (570.HK) And Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical (600436.CH)

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into Meituan, Wuxi Biologics, SMIC, GWM, HKEX.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight inflows into Meituan, Wuxi Biologics, SMIC, GWM, HKEX.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (October): Four Months of Inflows

Hong Kong

China Traditional Chinese Medicine Co. Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells medicine and pharmaceutical products in China.

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)

China: Sliding Market Leads to Passive Selling

A rapidly falling market could be upwards of 74 China stocks being deleted from passive portfolios. These stocks have underperformed the headline...

Brian Freitas

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jan 12th): CNOOC, Tencent

Highlight: We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight Hong Kong connect flows for CNOOC, Tencent.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM