HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Disappointing FY22 result from raw milk company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/austasia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36655:1" rel="noopener">AustAsia Group (2425 HK)</a> should be well expected, but the issue is its guidance that FY23 industry outlook will stay challenging. </li>
<li>Raw milk price is still coming down and 1H23 dairy product demand recovery is slow. Capacity influx will disrupt demand-supply balance, but feed costs pressure seems to have moderated. </li>
<li>Consensus profit projections for the sector are overly optimistic and there is earnings downgrade risk after FY22 result announcement. We will shy away in the near term.</li>
</ul>


Disappointing FY22 result from raw milk company AustAsia Group (2425 HK) should be well expected, but the issue is its guidance that FY23 industry outlook will stay challenging. 
Raw milk price is still coming down and 1H23 dairy product demand recovery is slow. Capacity influx will disrupt demand-supply balance, but feed costs pressure seems to have moderated. 
Consensus profit projections for the sector are overly optimistic and there is earnings downgrade risk after FY22 result announcement. We will shy away in the near term.


China Raw Milk Industry: Takeaways from AustAsia (2425 HK) Call

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 11th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, China Mobile, SMIC, HSBC.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 11th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, China Mobile, SMIC, HSBC.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Apr 11th): Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, China Mobile, SMIC, HSBC

<ul>
<li>The YTD rally in the Hong Kong and China markets has made it appealing for highly leveraged and outperforming stocks to make placements to raise fresh equity.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gds-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32157:1" rel="noopener">GDS Holdings (9698 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-youran-dairy-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31075:1" rel="noopener">China Youran Dairy Group (9858 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-gold-mining-co-ltd-4527fb98-bb5d-4d74-91fe-66f9c0224eb3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27455:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhaojin-mining-industry-company-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4626:1" rel="noopener">Zhaojin Mining Industry (1818 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-electronic-international-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1927:1" rel="noopener">BYD Electronics (285 HK)</a> are possible candidates.</li>
<li>Four of the top 30 YTD best-performing Hang Seng Composite stocks have made placements in the last three months, raising a total of HK$1.3bn with mixed performance since then.</li>
</ul>


The YTD rally in the Hong Kong and China markets has made it appealing for highly leveraged and outperforming stocks to make placements to raise fresh equity.

GDS Holdings (9698 HK), China Youran Dairy Group (9858 HK), Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK), Zhaojin Mining Industry (1818 HK), and BYD Electronics (285 HK) are possible candidates.
Four of the top 30 YTD best-performing Hang Seng Composite stocks have made placements in the last three months, raising a total of HK$1.3bn with mixed performance since then.


China & HK Strategy: Assessing Placement Risks, Who Needs Money?

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The H share market continues to be the top performing market in Asia in 2024.  The HSCEI has outperformed all Asian markets on a USD basis.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-longyuan-power-group-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14215:1" rel="noopener">China Longyuan Power (916 HK)</a> was rated a BUY at JP Morgan with the company hosting a roadshow to discuss its future growth strategy. 
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-beverage" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41984:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Beverage (2460 HK)</a> was initiated as a BUY at CMB International as the company rapidly expands into the ready-to-drink category with teas and sports drinks.
</li>
</ul>


The H share market continues to be the top performing market in Asia in 2024.  The HSCEI has outperformed all Asian markets on a USD basis.


China Longyuan Power (916 HK) was rated a BUY at JP Morgan with the company hosting a roadshow to discuss its future growth strategy. 


China Resources Beverage (2460 HK) was initiated as a BUY at CMB International as the company rapidly expands into the ready-to-drink category with teas and sports drinks.



BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (December 13)

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong market breadth stays strong despite market pullback in November.  Mainland investors continue to increase exposure to HK market through Southbound Connect platform.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (9888 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:179:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (BIDU US)</a> , the global leader in Robotaxis, was granted a license to start operating its autonomous cars in Hong Kong.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vitasoy-intl-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2807:1" rel="noopener">Vitasoy Intl Holdings (345 HK)</a> shares surged on takeover rumours after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yeo-hiap-seng-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9051:1" rel="noopener">Yeo Hiap Seng (YHS SP)</a> increased its stake to more than 12% allowing them to call a Board meeting.
</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong market breadth stays strong despite market pullback in November.  Mainland investors continue to increase exposure to HK market through Southbound Connect platform.

Baidu (9888 HK) , Baidu (BIDU US) , the global leader in Robotaxis, was granted a license to start operating its autonomous cars in Hong Kong.


Vitasoy Intl Holdings (345 HK) shares surged on takeover rumours after Yeo Hiap Seng (YHS SP) increased its stake to more than 12% allowing them to call a Board meeting.



The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (December 2)

China

China Youran Dairy Group Ltd operates as a dairy products manufacturing company. The Company conducts feed business, raw milk produ tion, and other buisinesses. China Youran Dairy Group markets its products throughout China.

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China Youran Dairy Group Ltd (9858 HK)

China Raw Milk Industry: Takeaways from AustAsia (2425 HK) Call

Outlook for the raw milk industry stays challenging in FY23. Raw milk price is still coming down, 1H23 dairy product demand recovery is slow and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Apr 11th): Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, China Mobile, SMIC, HSBC

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, China Mobile, SMIC, HSBC.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China & HK Strategy: Assessing Placement Risks, Who Needs Money?

Zhaojin Mining Industry (1818 HK) is the first one in our top 5 list to make a placement. The company is placing 140m H-shares at HK$14.08 to raise...

Osbert Tang, CFA

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (December 13)

H shares have outperformed all Asian markets this year on a USD basis. Longyuan Power continues to expand its offshore capacity & overseas...

David Mudd

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (December 2)

Hong Kong market breadth is high as mainland investors continue buy HK shares. Baidu, the largest Robotaxi operator was granted license to operate...

David Mudd

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