Forensic Analyst

Jason Yap, CFA

Forensic Accounting

Venustech Group Inc A / Forensic Accounting

China's cybersecurity market growth is set to reaccelerate given increased digitisation of the economy, emphasis on data security, and increase in cybersecurity spending.  While pandemic disruptions had led to an inevitable slowdown in 2020, recent cybersecurity spending trends by corporates and government bodies suggest a cyclical rebound. 
In the First of this Three part SK Originals series, we discuss how China's Company Accounting Standard No. 14 - Revenue ("CAS No. 14")'s application and consequent changes in accounting policy could result in material changes to the revenue recognition policy of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/venustech-group-inc-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2773:1" rel="noopener">Venustech Group Inc A (002439 CH)</a>, such as changing the timing of revenue recognition and the amount being recognised across the company's various revenue segments.  
Most Chinese software companies started adopting CAS No. 14 in 2020.  Broadly, the net impact of CAS No. 14 is that recognition of software product revenue shifts from from multiple milestones based on a percentage of delivery completion to the transfer of actual control of the software products to customers, subject to specific terms of contract and management judgement. 
We also discuss the materiality threshold used to identify the listed software companies that have made changes in lieu of CAS No. 14, the key implications, and what this all means for Venustech with reference to industry dynamics, relative valuation, and company fundamentals.
We are constructive on Venustech's prospects given its market leading position in software products, security operation centers and related services.  At forward P/E of 21.9x and market leading ROE and operating margin relative to peer average, we believe that Venustech is attractively valued.

China's cybersecurity market growth is set to reaccelerate given increased digitisation of the economy, emphasis on data security, and increase in cybersecurity spending.  While pandemic disruptions had led to an inevitable slowdown in 2020, recent cybersecurity spending trends by corporates and government bodies suggest a cyclical rebound. 
In the First of this Three part SK Originals series, we discuss how China's Company Accounting Standard No. 14 - Revenue ("CAS No. 14")'s application and consequent changes in accounting policy could result in material changes to the revenue recognition policy of Venustech Group Inc A (002439 CH), such as changing the timing of revenue recognition and the amount being recognised across the company's various revenue segments.  
Most Chinese software companies started adopting CAS No. 14 in 2020.  Broadly, the net impact of CAS No. 14 is that recognition of software product revenue shifts from from multiple milestones based on a percentage of delivery completion to the transfer of actual control of the software products to customers, subject to specific terms of contract and management judgement. 
We also discuss the materiality threshold used to identify the listed software companies that have made changes in lieu of CAS No. 14, the key implications, and what this all means for Venustech with reference to industry dynamics, relative valuation, and company fundamentals.
We are constructive on Venustech's prospects given its market leading position in software products, security operation centers and related services.  At forward P/E of 21.9x and market leading ROE and operating margin relative to peer average, we believe that Venustech is attractively valued. 

Accounting Standards Series - CAS No. 14 Impact on China Software Companies - Venustech (2439 CH)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY</a> family of indices, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50</a>, the KRX New Deal Index and a global index ends on 31 January.</li>
<li>The January rebalance of the IDX30 and LQ45 indices will be implemented at the close of trading on 31 January.</li>
<li>There have been huge inflows into the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a> ETFs for another week. This will increase the impact on the index changes at the next rebalance.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the NIFTY family of indices, Nikkei 225, STAR50, the KRX New Deal Index and a global index ends on 31 January.
The January rebalance of the IDX30 and LQ45 indices will be implemented at the close of trading on 31 January.
There have been huge inflows into the CSI 300 Index ETFs for another week. This will increase the impact on the index changes at the next rebalance.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: CSI300, CSI500, SSE50, ChiNext, KOSPI200, Renesas, IDX30/LQ45

<ul>
<li>The China equity markets have continued to slide and the lower market caps and free float market caps will see a lot of stocks deleted from passive portfolios in February.</li>
<li>We currently estimate selling of around US$1.66bn across 74 stocks listed on the mainland, in HK and the U.S., and that number could increase as markets continue to underperform.</li>
<li>The potential deletes have dropped a lot over the last 4 months and there has been a marked underperformance versus the headline indices over the last month.</li>
</ul>


The China equity markets have continued to slide and the lower market caps and free float market caps will see a lot of stocks deleted from passive portfolios in February.
We currently estimate selling of around US$1.66bn across 74 stocks listed on the mainland, in HK and the U.S., and that number could increase as markets continue to underperform.
The potential deletes have dropped a lot over the last 4 months and there has been a marked underperformance versus the headline indices over the last month.


China: Sliding Market Leads to Passive Selling

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We believe there is significant evidence that global equities (MSCI ACWI) have bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. Buys highlighted in global Technology, Discretionary, Real Estate, and Steel/Mining.</li>
<li>We discussed in our prior Int'l Compass (11/2/23) how the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency) was bullish, and a potent rally has ensued. We expect more upside ahead.</li>
<li>Now getting bullish 3+ month downtrend reversals and false breakdowns in the EURO STOXX 50, ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), MSCI EM (EEM-US), and EAFE (EFA-US). Major risk-on signals everywhere.</li>
</ul>


We believe there is significant evidence that global equities (MSCI ACWI) have bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. Buys highlighted in global Technology, Discretionary, Real Estate, and Steel/Mining.
We discussed in our prior Int'l Compass (11/2/23) how the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency) was bullish, and a potent rally has ensued. We expect more upside ahead.
Now getting bullish 3+ month downtrend reversals and false breakdowns in the EURO STOXX 50, ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), MSCI EM (EEM-US), and EAFE (EFA-US). Major risk-on signals everywhere.


Year-End Rally Underway; Many Bullish Reversals/False Breakdowns; Buys: Tech, Cons. Disc., RE, Steel

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Jun 16th based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), CK Asset (1113 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), CK Asset (1113 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Jun 16th based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), CK Asset (1113 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), CK Asset (1113 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jun 16th): Tencent, Aia, Ck Asset

China

Chinasoft International Limited develops and provides solutions in China to government authorities and its IT (Information Technology) service providers. The Company also provides IT consulting and training services, IT outsourcing services and standalone software products.

Chinasoft International (354 HK)

Accounting Standards Series - CAS No. 14 Impact on China Software Companies - Venustech (2439 CH)

In this SK Originals series, we discuss how CAS No. 14 Standards could affect the revenue recognition policy of Venustech, such as changing the...

Jason Yap, CFA

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: CSI300, CSI500, SSE50, ChiNext, KOSPI200, Renesas, IDX30/LQ45

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

China: Sliding Market Leads to Passive Selling

A rapidly falling market could be upwards of 74 China stocks being deleted from passive portfolios. These stocks have underperformed the headline...

Brian Freitas

Year-End Rally Underway; Many Bullish Reversals/False Breakdowns; Buys: Tech, Cons. Disc., RE, Steel

There is significant evidence that global equities $ACWI have bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. It all started when we discussed that the...

Vermilion Research

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jun 16th): Tencent, Aia, Ck Asset

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Tencent (700 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM