HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Fujian will lead 27 provinces to launch the centralized procurement of electrophysiological medical consumables. Its scale is comparable to the national VBP. Unlike many people's optimism, we see potential concerns.</li>
<li>The centralized procurement of orthodontic materials and brackets led by Shaanxi Province has made new progress, which is beyond the expectations of many people since invisible braces are included.</li>
<li>We analyzed China HPV market potential and valuation logic. We expected that the valuation of related companies would have a significant downward space ahead.</li>
</ul>


Fujian will lead 27 provinces to launch the centralized procurement of electrophysiological medical consumables. Its scale is comparable to the national VBP. Unlike many people's optimism, we see potential concerns.
The centralized procurement of orthodontic materials and brackets led by Shaanxi Province has made new progress, which is beyond the expectations of many people since invisible braces are included.
We analyzed China HPV market potential and valuation logic. We expected that the valuation of related companies would have a significant downward space ahead.


China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.21) - Electrophysiology VBP; Orthodontics VBP New Progress; HPV Vaccine

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cansino-biologics-inc-cc0c90b7-e854-4ba3-929b-914be1bd0d89" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32181:1" rel="noopener">CanSino Biologics Inc (688185 CH)'</a>s business has made some positive progress recently, including the launch of COVID-19 Vaccine for Inhalation, commercialization and development progress of MCV4/PCV13i, etc. </li>
<li>CanSino's technology platforms are very valuable and are above average level. Currently, there’re little potential domestic competitors, because CanSino’s products are newer, better and safer than domestic homogenized products.</li>
<li>Even based on conservative forecast, CanSino’s valuation in HKEX is “ridiculously low”. Considering the downside risk in HKEX, CanSino A-share could be better option before valuation in HKEX becomes reasonable.</li>
</ul>



CanSino Biologics Inc (688185 CH)'s business has made some positive progress recently, including the launch of COVID-19 Vaccine for Inhalation, commercialization and development progress of MCV4/PCV13i, etc. 
CanSino's technology platforms are very valuable and are above average level. Currently, there’re little potential domestic competitors, because CanSino’s products are newer, better and safer than domestic homogenized products.
Even based on conservative forecast, CanSino’s valuation in HKEX is “ridiculously low”. Considering the downside risk in HKEX, CanSino A-share could be better option before valuation in HKEX becomes reasonable.


CanSino Biologics Inc (688185.CH/6185.HK) - Some Positive Progress in Business

<ul>
<li>Ukraine "miraculously" turned the tide of war, making Russia to consider whether they’re facing Ukraine or the Pentagon/NATO? There could be "entry of new members". The balance could tilt again.</li>
<li>The Russia-Ukraine war is also a cruel world economic war. We analyzed the impact on healthcare industry (both opportunities and challenges).</li>
<li>Overall, the first episode of the Russia-Ukraine war has ended and entered a serious new phase. The game between the US and Russia would last for a long time.</li>
</ul>


Ukraine "miraculously" turned the tide of war, making Russia to consider whether they’re facing Ukraine or the Pentagon/NATO? There could be "entry of new members". The balance could tilt again.
The Russia-Ukraine war is also a cruel world economic war. We analyzed the impact on healthcare industry (both opportunities and challenges).
Overall, the first episode of the Russia-Ukraine war has ended and entered a serious new phase. The game between the US and Russia would last for a long time.


Russia-Ukraine War Episode 2 - The Balance Could Tilt Again and Its Impact on Healthcare Industry

<ul>
<li>It is estimated that a large number of biotech companies will be liquidated or willing to be acquired at low prices starting from the second half of 2023.</li>
<li>If strictly speaking, the so-called import substitution is not really good logic, but investors need to know "when to participate in this story" and "when to exit".</li>
<li>Economic downturn would lead to consumption downgrade. We suggest that investors temporarily avoid medical companies with consumption attributes, since we have concerns on their performance.</li>
</ul>


It is estimated that a large number of biotech companies will be liquidated or willing to be acquired at low prices starting from the second half of 2023.
If strictly speaking, the so-called import substitution is not really good logic, but investors need to know "when to participate in this story" and "when to exit".
Economic downturn would lead to consumption downgrade. We suggest that investors temporarily avoid medical companies with consumption attributes, since we have concerns on their performance.


China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.7)- Biotech Accept Reality, Import Substitution Logic, Consumer Medical

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>AIM needs to rely on both human rabies vaccine and HBV vaccine to contribute majority revenue,but the outlook is challenging. Their revenue would decline due to competition and product upgrading.</li>
<li>Most of AIM’s vaccine candidates are in early development stages. There’re many competing candidates in more advanced development stages.The pipeline lacks competitiveness and it's hard to generate forecasted profits.</li>
<li>Although the issue price is discounted significantly, AIM is still overvalued. Reducing the size of IPO to maintain a good share price doesn’t work. When investors exit,accumulated pressure will explode.</li>
</ul>


AIM needs to rely on both human rabies vaccine and HBV vaccine to contribute majority revenue,but the outlook is challenging. Their revenue would decline due to competition and product upgrading.
Most of AIM’s vaccine candidates are in early development stages. There’re many competing candidates in more advanced development stages.The pipeline lacks competitiveness and it's hard to generate forecasted profits.
Although the issue price is discounted significantly, AIM is still overvalued. Reducing the size of IPO to maintain a good share price doesn’t work. When investors exit,accumulated pressure will explode.


Pre-IPO AIM Vaccine - AIM Is Overvalued, with Uncompetitive Pipeline and Challenging Outlook

China

Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Company Ltd. researches, manufactures, and sells vaccines and biological products including prevention products, blood products, diagnostic reagents, and therapeutic agents.

Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products (300122 CH)

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Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products (300122 CH)

China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.21) - Electrophysiology VBP; Orthodontics VBP New Progress; HPV Vaccine

Unlike others' optimism,we see potential concerns in electrophysiology VBP; Orthodontics VBP is beyond expectation since invisible braces are...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CanSino Biologics Inc (688185.CH/6185.HK) - Some Positive Progress in Business

Cansino has made positive progress in commercialization and R&D recently. We look forward to the performance of MCV4 in H2. Its valuation in HKEX...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Russia-Ukraine War Episode 2 - The Balance Could Tilt Again and Its Impact on Healthcare Industry

The first episode of Russia-Ukraine war has ended and entered a new phase.As it becomes "small world war",the balance may tilt again. It's also a...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.7)- Biotech Accept Reality, Import Substitution Logic, Consumer Medical

Although unwilling, biotech will face the harshest truth in 2023; Import substitution isn't good logic. Investors should know "when to join" &...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO AIM Vaccine - AIM Is Overvalued, with Uncompetitive Pipeline and Challenging Outlook

AIM's products/pipeline are lack of competitiveness due to fierce competition and product upgrading, with gloomy outlook. Although the issue price...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

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