Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> that will be implemented at the close on 6 December.</li>
<li>With no increase in the number of index constituents this calendar year, there could be inclusions in December. The process of getting to 100 index constituents could drag into 2026.</li>
<li>Short interest is especially large in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinotruk-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19764:1" rel="noopener">Sinotruk</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giant-biogene-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35950:1" rel="noopener">Giant Biogene</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuaishou-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asm-pacific-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15061:1" rel="noopener">ASMPT</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics</a> and inclusion could set off some short covering.</li>
</ul>


Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 6 December.
With no increase in the number of index constituents this calendar year, there could be inclusions in December. The process of getting to 100 index constituents could drag into 2026.
Short interest is especially large in Sinotruk, Giant Biogene, Kuaishou Technology, ASMPT and JD Logistics and inclusion could set off some short covering.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for December

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>HSCI index has seen an outperformance of the consumer discretionary sector since the stimulus announcement while materials and energy sectors have lagged.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK)</a> announced a blow out 3Q24 revenue number with international revenue up by over 400%. DB raised the its target price to $88.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citic-securities-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:463:1" rel="noopener">Citic Securities (H) (6030 HK)</a> was maintained a BUY by Huatai, raising its target price to $28.81.   JP Morgan maintained  OVERWEIGHT on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-oriental-education-techn" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32210:1" rel="noopener">New Oriental Education &amp; Technology (9901 HK).</a>
</li>
</ul>


HSCI index has seen an outperformance of the consumer discretionary sector since the stimulus announcement while materials and energy sectors have lagged.

Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK) announced a blow out 3Q24 revenue number with international revenue up by over 400%. DB raised the its target price to $88.


Citic Securities (H) (6030 HK) was maintained a BUY by Huatai, raising its target price to $28.81.   JP Morgan maintained  OVERWEIGHT on New Oriental Education &amp; Technology (9901 HK).



BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (October 30)

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>In our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/eqd-hsi-september-rally-what-s-next?slug=eqd-hsi-september-rally-what-s-next" target="_blank" rel="noopener">previous insight</a> about the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a>'s we theorized a probable continuation of the rally in October, after some resistance, but the index just shoot up straight.</li>
<li>Resistance appeared last week, from an area considered a tail by our SHORT model, so it was not possible to make a forecast from there. </li>
<li>The question now is: can the index re-start to rally from here? Or will it pull back more this coming week?</li>
</ul>


In our previous insight about the Hang Seng Index's we theorized a probable continuation of the rally in October, after some resistance, but the index just shoot up straight.
Resistance appeared last week, from an area considered a tail by our SHORT model, so it was not possible to make a forecast from there. 
The question now is: can the index re-start to rally from here? Or will it pull back more this coming week?


EQD | The HSI Rally: Go LONG Now or Wait?

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Nicholas Tan

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhou-liu-fu-jewellery-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43706:1" rel="noopener">Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery Co., Ltd. (1716396D CH)</a>  is looking to raise $US200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. </li>
<li>It is a leading and fast growing jewellery franchise in China offering a diverse range of products through offline and online sales channels.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at the firm's past performance.</li>
</ul>



Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery Co., Ltd. (1716396D CH)  is looking to raise $US200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. 
It is a leading and fast growing jewellery franchise in China offering a diverse range of products through offline and online sales channels.
In this note, we look at the firm's past performance.


Zhou Liu Fu Pre-IPO - Capturing the Gold Rush

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>The franchise model of Zhou Liu Fu is the biggest performance contributor, which is also the main reason for the Company's rapid expansion and high gross profit margin.  </li>
<li>However, the CSRC questioned the rationality of franchise model and thus rejected its A-share IPO. We think the high revenue growth/profit margin may not be sustainable in the long term.</li>
<li>Pre-IPO post-investment valuation was approximately 7.407 billion yuan. Zhou Liu Fu has applied for H-Share full circulation, which may put pressure on stock price performance after the lockdown period expires.</li>
</ul>


The franchise model of Zhou Liu Fu is the biggest performance contributor, which is also the main reason for the Company's rapid expansion and high gross profit margin.  
However, the CSRC questioned the rationality of franchise model and thus rejected its A-share IPO. We think the high revenue growth/profit margin may not be sustainable in the long term.
Pre-IPO post-investment valuation was approximately 7.407 billion yuan. Zhou Liu Fu has applied for H-Share full circulation, which may put pressure on stock price performance after the lockdown period expires.


Pre-IPO Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery - The Potential Risks and Concerns Brought by the Business Model

Hong Kong

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Limited is a leading luxury jeweler that manufactures and sells a wide range of jewelry products, including gem-set, platinum, k-gold, and gold jewelry, as well as distributing watches. The company operates a vertically integrated business model, from diamond sourcing and manufacturing to retail and after-sales services, through both physical stores and online platforms. It was founded in 1929 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for December

We highlight 10 potential inclusions for the HSI in Dec. The number of constituents has not increased this year and the target to reach 100 members...

Brian Freitas

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (October 30)

The consumer discretionary sector shows increased momentum in Hong Kong. Pop Mart beat on 3Q revenue with 440% growth in revenue outside China....

David Mudd

EQD | The HSI Rally: Go LONG Now or Wait?

The Hang Seng Index rally went vertical, then pulled back last week. Is this the right time to go in LONG? Or better wait for the index to pullback...

Nico Rosti

Zhou Liu Fu Pre-IPO - Capturing the Gold Rush

Zhou Liu Fu is a leading and fast growing jewellery franchise in China. It is looking to raise $US200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.

Nicholas Tan

Pre-IPO Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery - The Potential Risks and Concerns Brought by the Business Model

Franchise model drives rapid growth, but CSRC once questioned the rationality. There're doubts about sustainability of growth/profit margin. Share...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for December

We highlight 10 potential inclusions for the HSI in Dec. The number of constituents has not increased this year and the target to reach 100 members...

Brian Freitas

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (October 30)

The consumer discretionary sector shows increased momentum in Hong Kong. Pop Mart beat on 3Q revenue with 440% growth in revenue outside China....

David Mudd

EQD | The HSI Rally: Go LONG Now or Wait?

The Hang Seng Index rally went vertical, then pulled back last week. Is this the right time to go in LONG? Or better wait for the index to pullback...

Nico Rosti

Zhou Liu Fu Pre-IPO - Capturing the Gold Rush

Zhou Liu Fu is a leading and fast growing jewellery franchise in China. It is looking to raise $US200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.

Nicholas Tan

Pre-IPO Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery - The Potential Risks and Concerns Brought by the Business Model

​Franchise model drives rapid growth, but CSRC once questioned the rationality. There're doubts about sustainability of growth/profit margin. Share...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Franchise model drives rapid growth, but CSRC once questioned the rationality. There're doubts about sustainability of growth/profit margin. Share...